Thailand Grand Prix, preview, form guide, predictions, Jack Miller, Marc Marquez, Marco Bezzecchi, Alex Marquez, rider market

‘Vulnerable’ and ‘Marc Marquez’ aren’t words that you often find in the same postcode.

But for this weekend’s opening Grand Prix of the 2026 MotoGP season in Thailand, they’re words that, at least for one weekend, belong in adjacent neighbourhoods.

That’s not in dispute; what’s unknown is for how long, and with what impact.

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Rewind back to last September in Japan – when Marquez won his seventh MotoGP title with five rounds to spare after taking 25 wins in 34 starts between sprint races and Grands Prix – and the Ducati maestro looked invincible. But – MotoGP being MotoGP – that didn’t last, the Spaniard fracturing his right shoulder after a crash with Aprilia’s Marco Bezzecchi on the opening lap of the following Grand Prix in Indonesia, and missing the rest of the season after unavoidable surgery.

Given Marquez’s injury history – the trajectory of his career changed completely after coming back too early from a right shoulder injury in the opening round of 2020 – the 33-year-old was always going to be cautious when he returned, and pre-season testing painted a confusing picture for the rider who has 99 Grand Prix wins across all three championship classes since 2008.

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Yes, he was towards the sharp end of the timesheets in Malaysia and Thailand, but after last year’s total dominance, he looked mortal.

The two-day Thailand test just last weekend was messy; already ailing with a stomach bug and suffering in the searing heat, Marquez crashed twice on the first day and then again on the final day during his race simulation to mimic this weekend’s 26-lap Grand Prix, and was already off Bezzecchi’s searing front-running pace when he fell.

“Technically we improve, we improve on the last day (of testing) here in Thailand, we start to do some good steps in the direction that I want and I start to feel better and better,” Marquez said in Thursday’s pre-event press conference.

“It’s true that the process of my recovery makes this pre-season a bit more difficult to be precise in the comments and to be always riding in the same way, but a test is always harder for the physical condition than a race weekend.

“The injury in Indonesia looked an easy one in the beginning, but it was not an easy one and it takes time. The fact that was it was again the right shoulder takes even more time. I hope I have a run-off of area to improve on the next races, but I don’t know which will be my 100 per cent of this right arm, so for this reason I want to understand where I am.”

Stomach bugs are easy to solve, but all signs point to a 2026 MotoGP season where the margin Marquez had over the rest of the field will be significantly trimmed, no matter the state of myriad body parts.

With a seismic regulation change to 850cc machinery on the horizon for next year and an engine-spec freeze in place for 2026, this campaign shapes as a 22-round holding pattern for what’s to come.

With continuity of rules, the field should – theoretically – compress, the avenues to make gains that can upturn the pecking order slowing to a trickle.

Aprilia has already shown that, after Bezzecchi stepped into the void left by the often-injured Jorge Martin last season and finished 2025 with consecutive wins to take third in the championship, it has another gear.

Ducati’s sweet-handling 2024 machine – used by Alex Marquez to uncork a runner-up season nobody saw coming – is the basis for the aerodynamic package for the Italian brand’s 2026 challenger, but it’s not a bike that threatens to lock out the podium as it did for fun in the first half of last season.

Honda has made enormous gains between Thailand last year and this. KTM – in the hands of Pedro Acosta, at any rate – shapes as a dangerous sniper for silverware.

Marquez – because he is who he is – remains the favourite for the season. But at 33 years of age and as a rider whose cat-like reflexes have arguably lost a little of their supernatural edge, he’ll know that Thailand this weekend is one to get through and test his repaired shoulder in the heat of competition for the first time in five months.

Given Aprilia’s prowess in testing at the same circuit just a week ago, this year’s visit to Buriram might be one where Marquez reluctantly acknowledges the need to sacrifice the short-term battle for the bigger prize of winning a longer war. Opponents with designs on being in the title fight might want to strike a blow now, as history suggests that’s not going to last …

Here’s your Friday form guide to the opening round of the 2026 MotoGP season, with the 26-lap Thailand Grand Prix set for 7pm (AEDT) on Sunday after the 13-lap sprint race at 7pm Saturday (AEDT).

‘I UNDERSTAND MY ROLE’: MILLER GETS QUARTARARO’S IMPATIENCE

Australia’s Jack Miller says he feels sympathy for the plight of fellow Yamaha rider Fabio Quartararo, with the 2021 world champion again refusing to confirm reports linking him to a switch to Honda for 2027 at Buriram on Thursday.

Quartararo took Yamaha’s most recent MotoGP win in Germany in 2022, and the 26-year-old has become increasingly and outwardly frustrated by Yamaha’s slide to the back of the pack since, reports in es.motorsport.com in late January placing him at Honda’s factory team for next year after his entire seven-year MotoGP career has been spent on Yamaha machinery.

While the Frenchman was coy about his future on Thursday – “I can’t tell you much, I can tell you my decision is clear,” he said – Miller understands Quartararo’s impatience for progress from Yamaha’s brand-new V4-engined machine, with the new power plant fast-tracked into competition this season but leaving Yamaha’s riders largely cut adrift from the other four manufacturers during pre-season testing.

PIT TALK PODCAST: Renita and Matt are joined by MotoGP tech guru Peter Bom to make sense of 2026 pre-season testing, and look forward to this weekend’s opening round in Thailand. Listen to Pit Talk below.

“I don’t know the outs and ins of the (contract) situation with him – but I understand the frustration,” Miller said of Quartararo.

“He’s a world champion, he believes and he trains his arse off, does everything that he can do to try to be at the top. When you’ve not got the package that you want, it’s frustrating.

“Year after year, I believe you get to a certain point … me, I’m still relatively fresh with the (Yamaha) project and I understand my role, what I’m supposed to be doing.

“We obviously want to try to being big results and do the best we can on Sundays, but I embrace the other side of it as well, to take a project from where we are and get it to where it belongs.”

Miller’s vast experience with V4-engined bikes from his tenure at Honda, Ducati and KTM before arriving at Yamaha last season has become even more crucial, with Quartararo’s teammate Alex Rins struggling with injury in the past two seasons and Miller’s Pramac Yamaha teammate a rookie, incoming World Superbikes champion Toprak Razgatlioglu.

The 31-year-old was Yamaha’s fastest rider in last week’s test in Thailand, but that only placed him 14th out of 22 on the timesheets as he continues to balance chasing outright performance with testing items and bike set-ups during Grands Prix weekends.

“Testing is testing … you can do things in testing with fuel (loads) and run everything on the limit, but once we go racing we’ll understand where we properly stand,” he said.

“We obviously know we have our issues, but the goal is to be there or thereabouts every time and work our way up the leaderboard.

“You might be a little more busy or preoccupied over the weekend (with testing), but once you’re preparing for the lights to go out, you’re putting in everything you believe is going to be the best package for the race.”

Miller’s past three visits to the Buriram track have grabbed headlines, as he led for 10 laps in a deluge in 2022 for Ducati before finishing second to Miguel Oliveira, who took KTM’s most recent win in the class.

The Australian matched a 2024 season-best with fifth place in another rain-hit race in 2024, while on debut for Yamaha last year, he qualified a stunning fourth before tyre wear consigned him to 11th in the Grand Prix.

Three days out from Sunday’s 26-lap race, rain is forecast to hit the Buriram circuit an hour before the 3pm start, potentially replicating the conditions that typically see Miller shine across his 198 previous MotoGP starts.

RIDER MARKET PAUSED AS TEAMS HOLD OUT FOR NEW DEAL

A raft of rider market moves mooted to happen before the Thailand weekend didn’t eventuate on Thursday, as MotoGP teams continue to negotiate with promoter MotoGP Sports Entertainment (formerly know as Dorna) over how revenue is to be shared from the championship’s commercial rights going forward.

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Quartararo’s late-January link to Honda was the catalyst for a host of reports that other riders have signed with different teams for the first year of MotoGP’s 850cc regulation reset for 2027, with 2024 world champion Jorge Martin reportedly moving from Aprilia to Yamaha to take Quartararo’s place, 2022-23 world champion Francesco Bagnaia set to join the recently-resigned Marco Bezzecchi at Aprilia, and KTM’s hotshot Pedro Acosta linking with Marquez at the factory Ducati team in place of Bagnaia.

Other than Bezzecchi renewing ties with Aprilia at pre-season testing in Malaysia earlier this month, the majority of the grid remains officially unsigned beyond the end of this season, with only Honda pair Johann Zarco and rookie Diogo Moreira, plus Razgatlioglu with Yamaha, owning contracts that go into 2027.

Earlier this week, autosport.com reported that the Motorcycle Sports Manufacturers Association (MSMA), the body representing the sport’s five manufacturers, is seeking a percentage-based slice of the revenue pie for the period between 2027-31, not a fixed per team payment as per past agreements between the manufacturers and promoter. Autosport reports that each team receives “around 8 million Euros” (A$13.25 million) under the current deal, with the manufacturers seeking a percentage-based share of overall revenue similar to the deal enjoyed by Formula 1 teams.

Autosport’s Oriol Puigdemont, one of the sport’s premier news-breakers, wrote: “It is within this broader negotiation that manufacturers have opted to withhold any official confirmation of their 2027 rider line-ups. The silence has been adopted as a form of leverage, though its effectiveness remains to be seen.”

CRYSTAL BALL: OUR FOUR FEARLESS PREDICTIONS FOR THE THAI GP

Winner: Marco Bezzecchi (Aprilia). After breaking the Buriram lap record at the Thailand test a week ago, and with the final two sectors of the track right in the wheelhouse for the sweet-handling RS-GP, expect the Italian to sit stop the MotoGP standings for the first time since the third round of 2023 in Austin come Sunday night.

Closest challenger: Marc Marquez (Ducati). His right shoulder will ache, his fitness will be down and he’s rusty, but he’s also Marc Marquez, a three-time Thai GP winner. Second place might have to do this year, though.

Podium smoky: Ai Ogura (Aprilia). The Japanese rider was fourth in the sprint and fifth in the Grand Prix on debut in Thailand last year, and did the fastest sprint-race simulation at Buriram just a week ago. He’s unlikely to be at the front every weekend, but it would be a major surprise if he isn’t on this one, his best track on the calendar 12 months ago.

Miller prospects: The Aussie ending Thailand as the best-placed Yamaha – as he was in pre-season testing – feels probable given the frustrations of Fabio Quartararo, the only one of his three stablemates with the pace to deny him. A result on the fringes of the top 10 in the sprint is likely to be as good as it gets given the Buriram layout punishes the Yamaha’s lack of straight-line grunt. But if it rains on Sunday, history has shown Miller can expect better.