AFL 2026, Power Rankings after Round 4

Welcome back to the Power Rankings.

The best footy right now is brilliant, as showcased on Friday night and Monday afternoon. But the worst is bad, and there are too many teams able to produce it.

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See our ranking of every AFL club from best to worst after Round 4 below!

How do the Power Rankings work? We take wins and losses into account, but also the quality of opposition faced and whether teams are likely to get healthier and/or improve going forward. It’s a little bit ‘who’s hot and who’s not’; part predictive, part analysis of what’s happened. If Team A is above Team B, we’d probably tip A to win if they were playing at a neutral venue this weekend.

All times AEST.

1. WESTERN BULLDOGS (4-0, 140.4%)

Last week: Ranked 1st, def Essendon by 34 pts

They’re the league’s last unbeaten team for the first time since 1961 – the year they made one of their four Grand Final appearances, so it’s a pretty good omen. Injury concerns for Tim English and Ed Richards right before their clash with their 1961 Grand Final opponent, Hawthorn, are less good. And while we would’ve preferred they went on with it against Essendon and built some more percentage, you can’t pick too many holes in a perfect start – especially given how many times in recent history Luke Beveridge’s men have had to recover from early stumbles. Even if they drop one against the Hawks on Saturday night, the Bulldogs will have recorded their best start since 2021, when they were 9-1 and 15-4 before being forced to go the long way (quite literally due to Covid restrictions) in September.

This week: Hawthorn at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7:35pm

2. BRISBANE LIONS (2-2, 110.6%)

Last week: Ranked 4th, def Collingwood by 54 pts

Welcome back, fellas. Obviously the late omission of Nick Daicos helped the Lions but a fixture that provided them with problems the last couple of years did no such thing last Thursday night, with the premiers untroubled before putting their foot on the accelerator in the last quarter. That latter bit is important, too – while their pedestrian percentage didn’t end up mattering last year because of the draw they had against North, that’s the sort of thing in a tight finals race that can swing seeding. Garbage time matters. (We know we’re talking about a team that just won flags from outside the top four and after losing a qualifying final, but still, the concept of ‘the higher you finish, the better your chance of winning the flag’ is mathematically sound!)

This week: North Melbourne at Barossa Park, Saturday 12:35pm

3. HAWTHORN (3-1, 114%)

Last week: Ranked 3rd, def Geelong by 1 pt

They’ve done a fantastic job recovering from that disappointing Opening Round to the Giants, which now feels like a lifetime ago, coming back to beat two fellow contenders in Sydney and Geelong. And they were better than the margins suggested in both games. They learned last year you can be pretty damn good yet still get stuck in a poor starting position once the lights go out in September, so banking those close wins will be critical. They’re contenders – flawed contenders, but everyone has flaws this year. And are they getting a little bit of a ‘team of destiny’ vibe? First they get to face the Swans without Isaac Heeney and Errol Gulden… then Jack Gunston appears to get injured against the Cats, yet plays on and kicks the winning point anyway… and now they get the unbeaten Bulldogs without Tim English AND Ed Richards? Things are falling nicely for them.

This week: Western Bulldogs at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7:35pm

4. FREMANTLE (3-1, 133.4%)

Last week: Ranked 5th, def Adelaide by 2 pts

They’re a serious footy team now. Obviously when a game is decided by a moment or two – a fumble, a smother, a bounce into the post – things could’ve gone either way but there was definitely a level of maturity in the Dockers allowing the Crows to come back… yet not wilting, like they did against Geelong in Round 1, and instead coming back again to beat a fellow contender on the road. Admittedly Adelaide has a surprisingly poor recent record at home, and was missing key players, but it was still the Dockers consolidating two big wins against lesser teams with an important four points against a like type. Our pre-season priors, the concerns about whether they could really play a modern game style every week, are gone now.

This week: Collingwood at Adelaide Oval, Friday 7:40pm

5. GOLD COAST SUNS (3-1, 152.6%)

Last week: Ranked 2nd, lost to Melbourne by 20 pts

OK, let’s pump the brakes a little bit. The first few rounds of the season are always a little weird, so we’ll count Sunday afternoon as the first true upset loss for a contender, and it’s fair to start wondering about the Suns’ midfield. It’s the first thing you think of when you think of this team, but through a month of footy they are middling – and in some key areas, actually poor – sitting 16th for first possession rate (7th last year) despite being 2nd for hitout win rate, plus 12th for first possession to clearance rate (2nd last year), and 17th for clearance differential (2nd last year). It’s still a small-ish sample size, but Matt Rowell’s return did not help them against the Demons, so there’s definitely something going on here. Suns-Swans might be the most interesting game of Gather Round…

This week: Sydney at Norwood Oval, Saturday 4:15pm

6. SYDNEY SWANS (3-1, 182.9%)

Last week: Ranked 9th, def West Coast by 128 pts

Alright, alright, jeez, we’re sorry for putting you ninth last week! We forgot it was time for the yearly ‘Sydney embarrasses West Coast to make up for 2006’ game. As we’ve said the last few weeks when ranking the Swans mid-table, though, the gap between them and the other top four contenders isn’t much of anything. And that game felt as much about the Eagles getting exposed after a big couple of weeks as it was the Swans being incredible (though they were incredible). Isaac Heeney decided he needed to remind everyone he’s still one of the best players in the comp, especially as one of the few elite midfielders who can also be an elite forward. Let’s see how clean the Swans look against a much better side this week.

This week: Gold Coast at Norwood Oval, Saturday 4:15pm

7. GEELONG (2-2, 89.7%)

Last week: Ranked 6th, lost to Hawthorn by 1 pt

An incredibly frustrating loss given they led with a minute left, and won the centre clearance when scores were level after that, but we leave it with more confidence in the Cats than we had coming in (because as we wrote last week, we were down on them). Shannon Neale continues to emerge as an absolute gem and Bailey Smith was at his blistering best for long stretches; overall they made errors but so did the Hawks, and sometimes things just don’t go your way. While at the bottom of this piece we talked about there being a two-division divide, there are still tiers amongst those divisions, and the Cats are in the seven-team tier at the top of the AFL. (Though at the bottom of that tier… hang on, we just put a tier within a tier…)

This week: West Coast at Norwood Oval, Sunday 12:30pm

8. ADELAIDE CROWS (1-3, 99.4%)

Last week: Ranked 7th, lost to Fremantle by 2 pts

This is how quickly luck can turn – the Crows have already lost as many close games in 2026 as they did in 2025. At the end of the season, that’s likely to be the difference between winning a minor premiership and just being among the pack of contenders. Matthew Nicks is unfortunately lacking just enough talent right now that they’ve come out of a very tough opening month at 1-3, rather than sneaking through at 2-2 or better. But the fixture now opens up with games against Carlton, St Kilda, Port Adelaide, Richmond (away) and North Melbourne over the next six weeks (plus Brisbane at the Gabba in Round 7). They then face Hawthorn before the bye – if they’re 7-4 heading into the break you’d be very happy.

This week: Carlton at Adelaide Oval, Thursday 7:40pm

9. COLLINGWOOD (2-2, 93.1%)

Last week: Ranked 8th, lost to Brisbane by 54 pts

Strangely, a team that has built its entire gameplan around running its midfield through its best player looked a lot worse when losing its best player just minutes before the game started! We expected the Magpies to not have enough firepower to beat Brisbane anyway, but Nick Daicos is one of the most valuable players in the league, so it’s a totally explainable result. Craig McRae knows the shape of his list – shallow and flawed, but able to win more games than it otherwise would by maximising Daicos. Without him they are a middling side, but with him they’re just in the mix for the top six.

This week: Fremantle at Adelaide Oval, Friday 7:40pm

10. MELBOURNE (3-1, 102%)

Last week: Ranked 12th, def Gold Coast by 20 pts

Every season needs an ‘Everyone’s Second Team’. As a rival supporter you don’t have to buy a scarf or anything, but you can be excited about seeing them succeed when it wasn’t expected – think Hawthorn a few years back when they went from 0-5 to the semi-finals, or Adelaide finally getting it together last year. We’re sure some people out there don’t like the Demons but they’re playing electric and fun footy, putting up scores, and now beating genuinely good sides. They are a finals contender – not in the way we used to talk about a finals contender, but remember the context of the wildcard system. A team like this has a shot at playing finals because we’ve gone from eight to ten teams. They will have more bad days, like the Freo game a couple of weeks back, but they are absolutely in the mix for the wildcard round. And a season that was threatening to be utterly and totally predictable (in a broader sense; we’ve got no clue who’s winning the flag) desperately needs a team like this.

This week: Essendon at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 1:15pm

11. GWS GIANTS (1-3, 76.9%)

Last week: Ranked 10th, BYE

The Giants had the bye, and come out of it with a clear mission. If they’re not 5-5 or better in six weeks’ time, something has gone badly wrong, as they face Richmond, North Melbourne, Essendon and West Coast (away). In this season where the bottom six are so far below the rest, you simply have to bank wins against them, or you’ve got no chance of contending.

This week: Richmond at Barossa Park, Sunday 3:15pm

12. ST KILDA (1-3, 86%)

Last week: Ranked 11th, BYE

The Saints had the bye, and now have a very telling month ahead of them. If they’re going to make anything of this season they need to be 4-4 in a months’ time, with three games against what we’re calling Division 2 (Port Adelaide, West Coast and Carlton) sandwiching Adelaide in Adelaide. Their narrow losses earlier this season to like types Collingwood and Melbourne are not disqualifying, but they are very disadvantageous in the race for the ten.

This week: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Sunday 7:15pm

13. NORTH MELBOURNE (3-1, 115.3%)

Last week: Ranked 15th, def Carlton by 10 pts

This week: Brisbane at Barossa Park, Saturday 12:35pm

14. CARLTON (1-3, 76.9%)

Last week: Ranked 14th, lost to North Melbourne by 10 pts

This week: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Thursday 7:40pm

15. PORT ADELAIDE (2-2, 117.6%)

Last week: Ranked 16th, def Richmond by 42 pts

This week: St Kilda at Adelaide Oval, Sunday 7:15pm

16. WEST COAST EAGLES (2-2, 64.9%)

Last week: Ranked 13th, lost to Sydney by 128 pts

This week: Geelong at Norwood Oval, Sunday 12:30pm

17. ESSENDON (0-4, 62.7%)

Last week: Ranked 18th, lost to Western Bulldogs by 34 pts

This week: Melbourne at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 1:15pm

18. RICHMOND (0-4, 56.1%)

Last week: Ranked 17th, lost to Port Adelaide by 42 pts

This week: GWS at Barossa Park, Sunday 3:15pm

This is the AFL’s Division 2, and this is the current problem with this season that hasn’t been fully exposed yet.

These are the league’s six worst teams, and they’re quite far behind everyone else. In eight games between Division 1 (the other 12 teams) and Division 2, the Division 1 teams are 8-0 with an average winning margin of 62 points.

But there have also been eight games between Division 2 teams – a pretty heavy concentration across four rounds, and most notably North Melbourne and Port Adelaide have only played fellow bad teams.

If you’re a real optimist you may think the Kangaroos, at 3-1, could use the ‘momentum’ of their early-season wins (we don’t really believe in that concept) and break out of this bottom bracket… but we don’t see it.

We have absolutely no proof they can beat better sides because they haven’t played any yet – and after copping the premiers in Gather Round they get another Division 2 derby against Richmond. Assuming they lose to Brisbane, they should be 4-2 and we’ll have basically no idea if they’re legit!

It’s not unusual to see a big gap between the best and worst teams, but the six in Division 2 look so far off the pace that we may genuinely get a 13th-placer with 7 or fewer wins, which we haven’t seen in over a decade. They’ll beat each other but that’s about it.

Gather Round will be fascinating in a potentially ugly way, because there are six Division 1 vs Division 2 games – Crows-Blues, Roos-Lions, Dons-Dees, Cats-Eagles, Giants-Tigers and Power-Saints. The latter is the best chance yet for a 2 over 1 upset.

But if we come out of Gather Round and the bottom sides are 0-14 against the rest, we have a real problem on our hands.

The wildcard finals expansion should still create an interesting race to September – the races for top four and six will be vital given how open the premiership race looks, and if there are 12 teams fighting for 10 spots like we think, the bottom part of the ten should create intrigue too (especially when either of Melbourne and/or St Kilda playing finals would be great stories).

But we’re in line for quite a lot of uncompetitive footy this year. That’s unavoidable but it’s not supposed to be this obvious.

These teams are all bad for different reasons – some are young and were never going to be anything else (Richmond, West Coast and North Melbourne to an extent), some are declining from early 2020s contention and hopeful of gun reinforcements from the next couple of drafts (Carlton and Port Adelaide)… and one is Essendon (Essendon).

But we suspect none of them, unless the Kangaroos are able to turn a few mostly-unconvincing wins against bad teams into an unlikely finals charge, will do anything of note this season.

That’s an issue when among the group are some of the biggest clubs in the land, with long-suffering fans (or at least medium-term suffering fans) who are understandably disgruntled and in a cost-of-living crisis don’t want to fill up the tank, drive into town and watch their boys get smashed again.

Unfortunately the AFL is about to tweak the draft rules again, raising the prices just when some of these clubs (notably Carlton, Essendon and Port Adelaide) need to buy. The fact the teams are bad isn’t a reason to delay the rule changes – the argument of ‘good teams were able to take advantage of a rort, and therefore us strugglers should too’ doesn’t stack up – but it’s an understandable pain point.

The reported rule that’ll see clubs who own top-five picks given a free selection at the end of the first round sounds rife for manipulation – it will always be better having picks 4 and 20, as an example, over just pick 3 – but we can understand the league’s concern.

You don’t want teams getting stuck down the bottom when expansion is about to happen because we saw what happened with the likes of Melbourne and Brisbane in the early 2010s; yes, they eventually built premiership lists, but not without producing a lot of really bad footy first. Rebuilding is a lot harder when the draft is compromised (…even more than usual).

We’re not claiming we have the solution to all of this. There are a million different factors, from free agency, to the fixture itself, to the very nature of the competition structure with so many Victorian clubs, creating imbalance.

But after years of the AFL very publicly proclaiming it is seeking equalisation, seeing such a sudden cliff is concerning.