For the third straight season, the Pac-12 legacy schools spread across four conferences will be grouped together to determine their postseason destinations. Within the bowl system, it’s like the old Pac-12 never imploded.
But there’s an added complication this fall: Six new schools have joined the conference, and some overlap exists with the bowl selection process.
As a result, our weekly bowl projections will include all 18 teams, separated into sections for the legacy schools and the new members.
Five reminders before we dive in:
— Any College Football Playoff participants will be removed from the selection process and sent directly to the CFP as automatic qualifiers or at-large teams.
That could be the best of the legacy schools (Oregon, USC, etc.) or the best of the new schools (hello, Boise State).
— Another provision that remains in place from previous years: For the Pac-12 legacy schools, bowl selections will be based on overall record, not conference record.
— The 10 departed schools are tied to the Alamo, Las Vegas, Holiday, Sun, Poinsettia, and Independence Bowls and, once again, won’t be affiliated with the selection process for their current conferences.
(The LA Bowl is defunct, in case you were wondering.)
— The six new Pac-12 teams are affiliated with the Poinsettia and Hawaii Bowls, plus the ESPN bowl pool for additional qualifiers.
— Washington State and Oregon State are part of the legacy team selection process with the exception of Poinsettia, where they would compete on the new Pac-12 side.
The Poinsettia, in San Diego, is the only bowl contractually obligated to match old Pac-12 vs. new Pac-12.
Here we go, folks.
Pac-12 legacy bowls
College Football Playoff
Team: Oregon
Comment: The Ducks were hardly dominant against Boise State, and their offensive line is a work in progress. (Peaking too soon won’t be an issue.) But the talent and depth elsewhere are hard to miss. We foresee no more than two losses despite a challenging schedule.
Alamo Bowl
Team: Utah
Comment: It’s easy to envision the Utes being solid favorites in every game leading to the Holy War in early November. Eight wins is the floor, which means the Alamo could be the landing spot.
Las Vegas Bowl
Team: USC
Comment: There’s plenty to like about USC’s roster and little to like about USC’s schedule, which is just this side of brutal — and the main reason the Hotline doesn’t project the Trojans for the CFP. They were in the Alamo last year, so that’s not an option.
Holiday Bowl
Team: Washington
Comment: Strange but true: The Huskies haven’t participated in the Holiday Bowl since the 2010 season even though they have been bowling every year since then except 2020-21. Of course, this forecast presumes they fix an offense that looked dreadful for most of the Apple Cup.
Sun Bowl
Team: UCLA
Comment: We believe in new coach Bob Chesney almost as much as we believe in the pillowy softness of UCLA’s conference schedule. The Big Ten did the Bruins a favor with the opponent rotation this season.
Poinsettia Bowl
Team: Arizona State
Comment: Resurrected after a nine-year hiatus, the Poinsettia is operated by the Holiday Bowl. The Sun Devils haven’t been to San Diego for the postseason in 13 years. If they become eligible — the matchup with Kansas in London next week is critical — then the Poinsettia seems like a good match.
Independence Bowl
Team: Arizona
Comment: We considered the Wildcats for the Poinsettia Bowl based on the projected win total. But they played in the Holiday last year and interest in another trip to San Diego might be low among both school officials and bowl executives.
Non-qualifier
Team: Cal
Comment: We saw enough — or rather, didn’t see enough — from Cal’s defense in the loss to UCLA to believe the Bears can win six games against what is a sneaky-tough schedule. That said, a first-rate performance Saturday at Syracuse could convince us they’re playoff-bound. We really have no idea what to make of them.
Non-qualifier
Team: Colorado
Comment: All credit to the Buffaloes for the victory at Georgia Tech, but their road to the postseason remains arduous. They visit Northwestern and Baylor on back-to-back Saturdays later this month and need a split to make the bowl math manageable.
Non-qualifier
Team: Oregon State
Comment: The Hotline has increased our projected victory total for the Beavers, from four games to five, based on their gritty showing at Houston. But this isn’t horseshoes or hand grenades. They need six wins.
Non-qualifier
Team: Stanford
Comment: There’s a not-unreasonable scenario in which the Cardinal are eliminated from bowl contention before November. We wouldn’t bet $1 on things playing out that way. But we might wager a dime.
Non-qualifier
Team: Washington State
Comment: Kudos to the Cougars for constructing a non-conference schedule that includes Washington, Kansas State and Arizona, but it could very well cost them a spot in the postseason. Make or miss, it will be close. Their opponent for the Pac-12’s flex Saturday (Nov. 28) could be decisive.
Pac-12 new bowls
College Football Playoff
Team: Boise State
Comment: We saw enough, especially on the lines of scrimmage, to believe the Broncos will finish as the top-ranked team from the Group of Six and claim a spot in the CFP for the second time in three years. And if they somehow run the table — the feat would include wins over Memphis and Western Michigan — there’s a chance of avoiding the No. 12 seed.
Poinsettia Bowl
Team: San Diego State
Comment: Home cooking for the Aztecs in the Poinsettia’s return? Why not. The presence of a Pac-12 legacy team on the other side of the pairing should generate plenty of local interest.
Hawaii Bowl
Team: Texas State
Comment: Don’t be fooled by the blowout loss to Texas. The Bobcats have more than enough playmakers to win six games, if not seven. The math is much easier if they handle UTSA this weekend.
ESPN bowl pool
Team: Fresno State
Comment: Any new Pac-12 teams that are bowl-eligible but not selected for the CFP or Poinsettia or Hawaii Bowls will be placed in ESPN’s pool and assigned to a game that makes the most sense logistically and competitively.
Non-qualifier
Team: Colorado State
Comment: The Rams opened the Jim Mora era with a stirring victory over Wyoming, but it’s exceedingly difficult to find five more. In fact, we’re having a difficult time spotting four.
Non-qualifier
Team: Utah State
Comment: The bowl math turned trickier than trigonometry with the loss to Idaho State. Next up for the Aggies: at Washington; after that: at Utah.
The post Pac-12 bowl projections: Oregon and Boise State to the CFP, Utah to the Alamo in our first look at landing spots for all … 18? first appeared on Sports360AZ.
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