The first half of the 2026 regular season produced several high-profile demotions, with coordinators being stripped of their play-calling duties. But no head coaches were dismissed — at least not until Wednesday, when Maryland fired Mike Locksley for a prolonged visit to the Big Ten cellar.

There undoubtedly will be a few more in-season terminations, followed by a barrage of dismissals once December arrives.

Our examination of the seat heat across major college football features three categories, each with specific parameters.

We have attempted to provide relevant contract data based on Hotline research and published reports. In many cases, the dollars don’t matter: The cost of keeping the coach outweighs the cost of dismissal.

Sizzling Seats

(Defined as: The axe could fall at any point during, or immediately after the season)

Baylor’s Dave Aranda: This is either the second or third consecutive season with Aranda’s employment in doubt. The Bears appeared to have a morsel of momentum after thumping Arizona State, then suffered a terrible loss to TCU. Signed through: 2029. Buyout: unknown

Florida State’s Mike Norvell: The Seminoles canned athletic director Michael Alford last month, a notable move because Alford stuck with Norvell after the dreary 2025 season despite massive unrest within the Seminoles constituency. The athletic department is deep in debt, but the on-field losing is more expensive. Signed through: 2031 Buyout: $50 million (approximately)

Rutgers’ Greg Schiano: Another season in the Big Ten cellar seems inevitable for the Scarlet Knights, who are 16-45 in conference play since Schiano took over in 2020. He won the race against Locksley not to be the first Big Ten termination. The celebration could be short-lived, however. Signed through: 2029 Buyout: $18.5 million (reportedly)

Warm Seats

(Defined as: A few bad results in the stretch run will turn the heat to high)

Colorado’s Deion Sanders: In the 1.5 seasons since Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders departed for the NFL, the Buffaloes are 5-13 overall and 1-11 in conference. Worse, they are irrelevant. All the exposure the school received early in the Sanders era — remember the amazing TV ratings? — has evaporated. Also, the chancellor and athletic director who hired Sanders are long gone. If the losing continues, he might be, as well. Signed through: 2029. Buyout: $25 million (reportedly)

TCU’s Sonny Dykes: The run to the 2022 national championship game seems like something from an alternate universe, for the Horned Frogs have not finished on the top tier of the Big 12 since that miraculous season. Their mediocre start this fall (3-3) doesn’t help Dykes’ job security. Nor do the optics: His expertise is offense, but TCU is 98th in the country in scoring. Signed through: 2029 (at minimum) Buyout: unknown

USC’s Lincoln Riley: A few weeks ago, Riley’s name might have belonged in the Sizzling Seat category, but the Trojans (6-1) steadied their ship, remained in playoff contention and caught a huge break with the injury to Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin ahead of the Buckeyes’ anticipated Halloween visit. The president and athletic director who hired Riley are gone, but the school has given Riley everything he claimed was needed to win big. Everything depends on the win total, in our view: 10 or more and he’s safe; eight or less and he’s gone. What if it’s nine? Flip a coin. Signed through: 2031 Buyout: $70 million (approximately)

Room-Temperature Seats

(Defined as: We don’t expect a change, but the possibility is non-zero)

Clemson’s Dabo Swinney: The multi-time national champion has not produced a first-class season since COVID, but would the Tigers actually axe the greatest coach in school history? It seems unlikely. They are 4-2 and have a slew of winnable games remaining. Signed through: 2031. Buyout: $57 million (reportedly)

Michigan’s Kyle Whittingham: We never imagined the future Hall of Famer could be one-and-done in Ann Arbor, and that scenario is admittedly remote. But if the Wolverines (4-2) slog through the second half and lose to Ohio State, would Whittingham and the school admit the fit is all wrong and go their separate ways? Stranger things have happened … like Michigan hiring Whittingham in the first place. Signed through: 2030. Buyout: $25 million (approximately)

Washington’s Jedd Fisch: The Hotline didn’t give much thought to the potential for a coaching change in Seattle until Fisch played the excuse card in a remarkable display of self-immolation. He complained publicly about the lack of NIL resources after the Huskies were blown out, at home, by a team on their spending level (Iowa). At that point, we began to wonder — and assumed UW’s administration was furious. If the Huskies flop and flail their way to 6-6, anything could happen. Signed through: 2030 Buyout: $30 million (approximately)

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