AFL 2026, Opening Round Talking Points

A Saturday night thriller exposed an AFL lie, after the Friday night spectacular down the road which showcased a new leading contender for the 2026 flag.

The big issues from Opening Round analysed in Foxfooty.com.au’s Talking Points!

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AFL’S BIGGEST LIE EXPOSED IN SATURDAY NIGHT STATEMENT

This was the exact sort of game the Western Bulldogs apparently couldn’t win.

On the road, against the reigning premier, down by 26 points. And even when they got close, most watching would’ve expected Brisbane to get the job done.

But narratives are descriptive, not prescriptive. The fact the 2025 Bulldogs rarely beat the best teams didn’t mean the 2026 Bulldogs cannot.

The excitement on the faces of Luke Beveridge and his players after their thrilling five-point win over the Lions showed just how much it meant.

“These are scenes of a coach who knows exactly where he’s at, in terms of the pressure that’s going to come with the talent that’s on this list, the fact they missed last year,” Garry Lyon said on Fox Footy.

“To come up and win in the manner that they did – they kicked eight of the last 11 goals … you can’t want for much more in terms of setting up a season.”

We don’t know exactly what was going on inside the minds of the Bulldogs’ players and coaches, but we suspect it was something along the lines of ‘we told you so’.

Because the Bulldogs know they were better than everyone, except the footy nerds who’ve rated them as a top-tier contender for the last three seasons, thinks. And they finally got to show it.

“Last year, we had the same number of wins (14) and were a better team (than in 2024), but didn’t play finals,” Beveridge told the Herald Sun during the pre-season.

“We believe we can get there this year. We can be that team. There is a conviction in that.”

Elite offensively in both 2024 and 2025, and elite defensively in 2024 before dropping off last year, the Bulldogs were incredibly unfortunate to miss last year’s finals – on most metrics, they were the best team to ever not make the V/AFL post-season.

The simple explanation was that the Bulldogs just weren’t good enough against the best teams, and it was easy to point to their 2-9 record against the top eight.

But anyone worth listening to in footy knows you can’t analyse a team just based on wins and losses. Sure, results are the only things that matter in the end, but you need to be process-driven when analysing the quality of a team.

The Bulldogs did lose nine games against last year’s top eight, but they were in every single one of those games, with a biggest losing margin of just 22 points. That includes four losses by less than two goals.

In fact, against top eight teams between 2023 and 2025, the Bulldogs went 0-9 in close games.

Some people will look at that and say they weren’t good enough, while others will say they got unlucky.

We believe it’s the latter, and Saturday night’s win over Brisbane proves it … because this time, the Lions were the ones who got unlucky.

While Champion Data’s official expected score numbers were unavailable, the expected score from respected footy stats site Wheelo Ratings suggested Brisbane ‘should have’ won 120-106, not lost 106-111.

Put simply, the Lions would have normally kicked straighter. During the second and fourth quarters combined they kicked a wasteful 6.11, while the Bulldogs kicked 10.2, and anyone who watched the game will recall some of those close-range misses in the final term.

Charlie Cameron getting an unlucky bounce after the deep one-on-one with Sam Darcy comes to mind. If that ball goes his way, Cameron goals, and that might have been the difference.

Those are the sorts of moments that decide games and they have as much to do with good fortune as they do good footy. Sometimes the ball bounces your way, and sometimes it doesn’t, and that can decide a result.

The Bulldogs were flawed but good last year. Having conceded over 100 points in Opening Round, they again look flawed but good. But almost every premiership contender is flawed in some way, and good coaching is about minimising the negatives while maximising the positives.

This time the ball bounced their way to start the season, which is handy because of how hard their early draw is. They get the Giants next week – who looked strong against Hawthorn but have been dominated by the Dogs in recent years – before a Friday night blockbuster away to Adelaide. Then Hawthorn, Geelong, Sydney and Fremantle loom after their early bye.

Beating Brisbane proves the Bulldogs can win those games, something the AFL world needed to be reminded of.

That doesn’t mean they will, of course. But with new inclusion Connor Budarick looking excellent (including leading their surprisingly strong scoring power from kick-ins), and Ed Richards shining rather than wilting in a big game, we have more faith than ever.

IS TRAC THE PERFECT ALL-IN TRADE?

We’re not suggesting Christian Petracca is going to have the best game of his career every time he runs out in Gold Coast colours.

But jeez, it was a reasonable audition, wasn’t it?

With 36.9 AFL Player Ratings points, Friday night’s 34 disposals, 12 score involvements and three goals against Geelong made up Petracca’s best ever performance.

While it was a reminder of the level the Norm Smith medallist can reach, it was done in a different way – because the famously questionable kicker was absolutely brilliant with the ball.

A full 24.4 of his AFL Player Ratings points came just from ball use, the third-most of any player in the last five years.

That’s not likely to be sustainable but it doesn’t need to be for him to be worth adding to this talent-laden Suns list.

The deal that sent Petracca north might be the perfect all-in trade, because the Suns could not have been better placed to make such a massive deal.

In return for their midfield superstar Melbourne received picks 7, 8 and 37 plus the Suns’ 2026 first-round pick and 2027 third-round pick, with some picks in the 20s going back the other way. Simplified, they paid three first round picks.

Usually trading out that much capital will ruin a club’s ability to hit the draft, but not the Suns, who still had enough currency to match bids for a pair of top-five Academy products – No.2 pick Zeke Uwland and No.5 pick Dylan Patterson.

This is because they have been operating in a warped economy for several years. The ability to cheaply match bids for their Academy talent has seen the Suns consistently trade current picks for future picks, pushing their assets further down the road for the right opportunity.

Petracca, a prime-aged superstar willing to join the club, was that opportunity. He’s the type of player the Suns have never been able to add in the past – but with Petracca being a somewhat distressed asset due to his hefty salary and desire to leave the Demons, combined with finally emerging as a finals contender in 2025, they suddenly became an option.

If he’s what tips Gold Coast over the edge from flag contenders to flag winners, it’ll only make the non-Queensland clubs even angrier about the previous Academy concessions, because it’s all linked together.

They paid full price for Petracca because they were getting bargains elsewhere, for years – it’s like going on a holiday and being willing to splash the cash on a great hotel because you got a really cheap flight.

The Suns didn’t do anything wrong. They took advantage of a flaw in the system. And we know it’s flawed because it is now being changed.

It just wasn’t changed in time to stop both Gold Coast and Brisbane from taking advantage. Queensland footy is red-hot right now, with incredible participation rates, which is great for the sport overall – but not great for the other 16 clubs.

We’re not overreacting to one weekend and saying the Suns are unstoppable. They had some huge wins last year but some really bad losses. And heck, the Lions lost this weekend (to another team which has taken advantage of father-son and Next Gen Academy rules over the last few years).

But both clubs would have to try really damn hard to be bad any time this decade.

‘WHO IS THE NEXT PERSON UP?’: FAILED TRADE HURTING HAWKS

We’re only one game in but Hawthorn’s inability to land Bomber Zach Merrett last trade period is already glaring issue for the Hawks.

Against an injury-ravaged Giants on Saturday, the Hawks struggled to win the ball at contest.

And aside from star Jai Newcombe, who can get the job done?

It’s a question our Fox Footy experts believe Sam Mitchell needs answered fast.

“They are going to come up against better midfielders and more healthier midfielders than the Giants,” two-time premiership Roo David King said.

“I was disappointed with their bravery around contest – some of their contested possession skills weren’t there. It’s Newcombe, it’s (Conor) Nash to a point in terms of winning clearance. After that, who is the next person up?

“(Josh) Weddle, (Josh) Ward and the Wizard (Nick Watson) get an opportunity – and one of those guys absolutely need to grab hold of a midfield position. Nothing is going to change for the Hawks in terms of their premiership aspirations until one of those guys steps up.”

Statistics show Newcombe finished with just four contested possessions against the Giants – a four-year low for the Hawks star.

Triple premiership Tiger Jack Riewoldt believes Nick Watson could be the answer – but he needs more minutes.

“Nick Watson was the one who looked lively. And he was only lively in the forward 50,” Riewoldt said.

“He hit the pack a couple of times and you go, that’s the dynamic pace that you can bring to a centre bounce.

“Only six attendances to the Wizard – you feel that number needs to be pushing to 20. Jai Newcombe has 32 (centre bounce appearances). We know that he’s a mainstay in there, but you need to have something different – that little power pack that Nick Watson certainly is.”

Without a true midfield partner for Jai Newcombe, footy journalist Jay Clark believes the Hawks will be “chips in” on Power star Zak Butters for 2027 and beyond.

“It’s interesting – they were all in for Merrett and then (Christian) Petracca comes out and goes bang (for Gold Coast),” Clark said.

“They clearly need to add to that midfield stock.

“You’d think Butters and (Bailey) Humphrey would lead that wish list.”

While the Hawks struggled in the midfield, coach Sam Mitchell spoke of his disappointment with his backline in the 27-point loss to the Giants.

“We didn’t produce our best footy defensively – really disappointed with how easy they got their goals compared to how hard we had to work for ours,” he said.

“They certainly outworked us.

“Ground ball gets we’re -19 for the game! That’s pretty significant.

“As basic as it sounds … get numbers to the contest and they were really good at that and we were really disappointing.”

The Hawks backline were accused of “ball watching” in a first half where they coughed up 13 goals – the second worst conceded under Sam Mitchell and the third worst for the Hawks in close to a decade.

“They are just not switched on the Hawthorn defenders,” four-time premiership winner Jordan Lewis said on Fox Footy.

There were times Giant Max Gruzewski was alone inside 50 repeatedly, Jake Stringer was given free jumps at the ball while on another occasion Hawks duo James Sicily and Blake Hardwick were standing watching the ball come in.

“It’s an under 12s comment – you’re ball watching,” Nick Dal Santo said.

“You’re watching the play to see how it unfolds rather than what’s next – where could this ball possibly go? Someone needs to be able to negate that – particularly the two senior players.”

Ex-Hawk Ben Dixon said the defenders were getting “towed everywhere” by a Giants attack who racked up eight marks inside 50 to half time.

While the Hawks did add respectability to the scoreboard late, it’s clear there’s multiple areas of concern for the club in 2026.

UNSUNG PIE’S ‘BEST ON GROUND’ SHUTDOWN PUTS SPOTLIGHT ON SAINT

Did the Pies just reveal the game plan to stopping St Kilda’s $2 million man Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera?

Described as “impossible to coach against” by ex-AFL mentor Ken Hinkley, Wanganeen-Milera was tipped to take the competition by storm after signing his big money extension to remain at Moorabbin.

And he looked good early, with the Saints star the highest rated player on the ground heading into half time against the Pies.

But when Collingwood’s Harry Perryman went into a lockdown role, Wanganeen-Milera became the 37th ranked player in the game for the second half.

Game over.

Perryman went everywhere with the Saints star – midfield and even to the last line of defence in the square.

Without Wanganeen-Milera’s silk and composure, the Saints “shot themselves in the foot” time and time again in a frantic final term when the match came to a thrilling finish.

AFL great Jason Dunstall warned Wanganeen-Milera should expect more of the Perryman-style treatment in 2026.

“He’s going to cop that every week now,” he said.

“There’s a lot of teams that don’t tag just on principal – but those that do have a tag, whenever they play St Kilda he’s going to get it.

“He’s going to have to work his way through.

“He found it tough – he was up against a quality opposition tonight.

“He better get his head around it because it’s going to happen a lot.

“The pressure now builds a little bit on St Kilda.”

Four-time premiership winner and four-time premiership coach Leigh Matthews said it was crucial for sides to be able to lock down a rival superstar.

“In the second half, the opposition match winner was just shut down – denied time and space,” he said.

“You’re going to get a body wanting to take control of you so you don’t have an easy run at the ball.

“I suspect, he’s only burst on the scene the last half season Wanganeen-Milera. You would have thought, you watch that today – to beat St Kilda because he’s such a good player when he’s on, when he gets the ball in his hands. Trying to shut him down would be almost the first priority.

“And going forward even more so.”

Pies star Nick Daicos named Perryman as the player of the match given his shutdown role on Wanganeen-Milera – who finished with 19 touches and a goal.

“I don’t care about all the stats and that … he was best on ground for us,” Daicos said of Perryman.

“I don’t know how many touches he had, but continually just does a role for the team.

“He’s such a good player, such a good lad to have around the team.

“It got discussed during the week if anyone wants to play on Nas – Pez was the first to put his hand up.

“He just loves it. He wanted to go with him everywhere and he did it great tonight.”

Speaking to Fox Footy, Perryman could only smile when asked about taking on the Wanganeen-Milera challenge.

“They didn’t give me much notice to be honest – they told me maybe on Friday I’d get the job,” he shared.

“I don’t mind doing that role. It’s a good opportunity for me to get in the midfield and run around and just do what’s best for the team.

“He loves getting you on the outside. I knew if I could keep him in the contest, push him in the contest and beat him on the outside … I knew he’d play a few tricks go forward, go back. I can just follow him around.

“Bit of lip ever hurt anyone so it was good fun!”

Dunstall claimed Wanganeen-Milera “lost focus” in a tough third term when the Saints star was involved in a number of scuffles.

“It’s going to be a really interesting challenge for him,” he said.

“Perryman was giving him a decent old going over and then (Isaac) Quaynor started giving it to him.”

Even Saints coach Ross Lyon conceded his star had lessons to learn in regards to a hard tag.

“I thought he started the game really well … Nas worked through it,” Lyon said in his post-game press conference.

“He didn’t have his best night, but he never gave up and kept working.

“He’s got to work through that (getting tagged) phase.”