The AFL premiership cup will be staying outside of Victoria.
That’s the view of Fox Footy’s experts, at least, with Brisbane the hot favourite to claim a three-peat and repeat the heroics of their legendary early 2000s team.
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But if it’s not Brisbane, it could be a team from New South Wales, South Australia or Western Australia… or even their Queensland mates.
Of the 21 analysts surveyed by Foxfooty.com.au, 20 named a non-Victorian club as the 2026 AFL premier, with only Midweek Tackle’s Lauren Wood backing Geelong to bounce back from their grand final heartbreak.
The Lions had over half of all voters behind them, having continued to improve a list that has already won the last two premierships, and was a kick away from challenging for a four-peat this year.
“The Lachie Neale circus has taken the spotlight off how dominant this midfield machine will be in 2026,” First Crack host Jay Clark explained, while his co-host Corbin Middlemas pointed to the Lions’ enviable list build.
“Unlike previous teams attempting a fourth consecutive GF, they’re not an ageing list; the majority of their best players are still in their physical prime, or coming into it,” he said.
A full 16 of the 21 analysts backed Brisbane to make a fourth straight Grand Final.
Neale wants to stay in Brisbane! | 01:32
However there was also strong support for the Lions’ 2024 opponent to charge back into the decider.
Sydney’s 2025 campaign was ruined by injury but half of all Fox Footy experts are predicting Dean Cox to bring the Swans back into the Grand Final.
“After a forgettable start to 2025, the Swans enter 2026 healthy, with strong momentum, a decent draw and the missing puzzle pieces in Charlie Curnow,” Foxfooty.com.au’s Ben Waterworth explained.
“It’d be a big jump from 10th to the flag, but one this star-studded team is highly capable of doing.”
The Swans have lost their last four Grand Final appearances, and would be breaking a curse if they hold up the cup – but so would Fremantle, who have never won an AFL premiership.
Justin Longmuir heads into the 2026 season under pressure, having not won a final since week one back in 2022, but what’s widely viewed as one of the AFL’s best lists may be too much for rivals to stop as the Dockers polled multiple votes.
“They win two finals this year, if they do that, they will quite likely be in a grand final,” Fox Footy commentator Will Schofield said.
“Their list build has been exceptional and they have all the pieces to go all the way this year.”
Scott refuses to dwell on, or review GF | 02:26
Last year’s top-heavy ladder and the expansion from a top eight to the top 10, through the addition of two wildcard finals, sees very few expected changes to the top eight.
All 21 experts have Sydney returning to the finals, with all but one expecting last year’s ninth-placers the Western Bulldogs to join them, while Brisbane, Fremantle, Geelong, Gold Coast and Hawthorn were all unanimously tipped to reach the post-season.
GWS and Collingwood each received a handful of votes to slip out of the top 10 entirely with St Kilda, fresh off their trade period cash splash, and Port Adelaide the only sides backed to potentially rise from the bottom eight.
Elsewhere, West Coast is an overwhelming favourite to claim a second straight wooden spoon while with umpires now given access to statistics before voting, Nick Daicos is the hottest tip to finally claim the Brownlow Medal – after three podium finishes in a row.
See the full predictions below!
OVERALL TALLY (21 surveyed)
To play finals
21 – Brisbane Lions, Fremantle, Geelong, Gold Coast Suns, Hawthorn, Sydney Swans
20 – Adelaide Crows, Western Bulldogs
16 – GWS Giants
15 – Collingwood
10 – St Kilda
3 – Port Adelaide
0 – Carlton, Essendon, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast Eagles
Premiers
11 (of 21) – Brisbane Lions
4 – Sydney Swans
3 – Fremantle
1 – Adelaide Crows, Geelong, Gold Coast Suns
Runners-up
6 (of 21) – Sydney Swans
5 – Brisbane Lions, Gold Coast Suns
2 – Fremantle
1 – Adelaide Crows, Geelong, Hawthorn
Wooden spoon
18 (of 21) – West Coast Eagles
1 – Essendon, North Melbourne, Richmond
Brownlow Medal
9 (of 21) – Nick Daicos (Collingwood)
6 – Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)
5 – Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (St Kilda)
1 – Jai Newcombe (Hawthorn)
Coleman Medal
5 (of 13) – Charlie Curnow (Sydney Swans)
3 – Ben King (Gold Coast Suns), Riley Thilthorpe (Adelaide Crows)
1 – Sam Darcy (Western Bulldogs), Josh Treacy (Fremantle)
How high are the stakes for Voss in 2026 | 02:34
FOX FOOTY CRYSTAL BALL: EXPERTS’ FULL AFL 2026 SEASON PREDICTIONS
JOSH BARNES (Herald Sun/Midweek Tackle)
Top 10 changes: Sydney Swans, Western Bulldogs and St Kilda IN | Adelaide Crows OUT
Premiers: Gold Coast Suns. “The other Queensland side has no holes and youthful legs on their side. A breakthrough finals win is a natural stepping stone to genuine contention.”
Runners-up: Sydney Swans
Wooden spoon: West Coast Eagles
Brownlow Medal: Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)
DYLAN BOLCH (Foxfooty.com.au)
Top 10 changes: Sydney Swans, Western Bulldogs and St Kilda IN | GWS Giants OUT
Premiers: Brisbane Lions. “The Lions are the back-to-back premiers and have only become stronger over the off-season. The additions of Sam Draper and Oscar Allen from rival clubs is big, likewise Academy youngster Daniel Annable. The likes of Keidean Coleman and Lincoln McCarthy are fit again and Brisbane’s younger brigade, led by the likes of Will Ashcroft, Levi Ashcroft, Jaspa Fletcher and Darcy Wilmot, are only going to get better. That’s scary for the rest of the competition.”
Runners-up: Sydney Swans
Wooden spoon: West Coast Eagles
Brownlow Medal: Nick Daicos (Collingwood)
Coleman Medal: Ben King (Gold Coast Suns)
JAY CLARK (Herald Sun/First Crack)
Top 10 changes: Sydney Swans, Western Bulldogs and St Kilda IN | Collingwood OUT
Premiers: Brisbane Lions. “The Lachie Neale circus has taken the spotlight off how dominant this midfield machine will be in 2026.”
Runners-up: Fremantle
Wooden spoon: West Coast Eagles
Brownlow Medal: Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (St Kilda)
BEN COTTON (Foxfooty.com.au)
Top 10 changes: Sydney Swans, Western Bulldogs and St Kilda IN | Collingwood OUT
Premiers: Brisbane Lions. “The reigning back-to-back premiers powered up again and the other top contenders are still too unproven.”
Runners-up: Gold Coast Suns
Wooden spoon: West Coast Eagles
Brownlow Medal: Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)
Coleman Medal: Charlie Curnow (Sydney Swans)
WILL FAULKNER (Foxfooty.com.au)
Top 10 changes: Sydney Swans, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda and Port Adelaide IN | Collingwood and GWS OUT
Premiers: Brisbane Lions. “Can’t tip against the back-to-back winners when their list is getting even stronger.”
Runners-up: Gold Coast Suns
Wooden spoon: West Coast Eagles
Brownlow Medal: Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)
Coleman Medal: Josh Treacy (Fremantle)
SCOTT GULLAN (Herald Sun/Midweek Tackle)
Top 10 changes: Sydney Swans, Western Bulldogs and St Kilda IN | Collingwood OUT
Premiers: Sydney Swans. “There’s something about Charlie and a fit Errol, Callum and Chad which screams big leap for the Swans.”
Runners-up: Gold Coast Suns
Wooden spoon: West Coast Eagles
Brownlow Medal: Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (St Kilda)
TOM HAWKINS (Fox Footy)
Top 10 changes: Sydney Swans and Western Bulldogs IN | None OUT
Premiers: Adelaide Crows. “Straight sets exit = hunger. Rankine gives them genuine X-factor in big moments. Thilthorpe becomes the best key forward in the game, that changes their ceiling dramatically. Defence is organised and balanced — not flashy, but reliable. Adelaide Oval advantage is real.”
Runners-up: Fremantle
Wooden spoon: West Coast Eagles
Brownlow Medal: Nick Daicos (Collingwood)
Coleman Medal: Riley Thilthorpe (Adelaide Crows)
CATHERINE HEALEY (Foxfooty.com.au)
Top 10 changes: Sydney Swans, Western Bulldogs and Port Adelaide IN | Collingwood OUT
Premiers: Sydney Swans. “The Swans have the experience, the list and under Dean Cox, will be hopeful they can defeat their grand final hoodoo.”
Runners-up: Adelaide Crows
Wooden spoon: West Coast Eagles
Brownlow Medal: Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (St Kilda)
Coleman Medal: Riley Thilthorpe (Adelaide Crows)
BRAD JOHNSON (Fox Footy)
Top 10 changes: Sydney Swans and Western Bulldogs IN | None OUT
Premiers: Fremantle. “Strong in every line.”
Runners-up: Sydney Swans
Wooden spoon: North Melbourne
Brownlow Medal: Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)
Coleman Medal: Ben King (Gold Coast Suns)
DAVID KING (Fox Footy/First Crack)
Top 10 changes: Sydney Swans, Western Bulldogs and St Kilda IN | Collingwood OUT
Premiers: Fremantle. “If it’s not this year, it will be next.”
Runners-up: Brisbane Lions
Wooden spoon: West Coast Eagles
Brownlow Medal: Jai Newcombe (Hawthorn)
How will May be remembered at Melbourne | 01:58
MAX LAUGHTON (Foxfooty.com.au)
Top 10 changes: Sydney Swans, Western Bulldogs and St Kilda IN | GWS Giants OUT
Premiers: Brisbane Lions. “A sickeningly good list. They haven’t been a great home and away team so they may not finish on top, but they’re the best team in it when it matters. Worth remembering Geelong was favourite going into the Grand Final and ahead halfway through the third quarter – they’re closer than being given credit for.”
Runners-up: Geelong
Wooden spoon: West Coast Eagles
Brownlow Medal: Nick Daicos (Collingwood). “Bont is still the best player in the game, but now they’ll see Nick’s disposal counts before voting, which we all know are a flawless analytical tool.”
Coleman Medal: Sam Darcy (Western Bulldogs). “He’s so tall.”
GLENN MCFARLANE (Herald Sun/Midweek Tackle)
Top 10 changes: Sydney Swans and Western Bulldogs IN | None OUT
Premiers: Brisbane Lions. “The back-to-back Lions will be even stronger in 2026 and can emulate the club’s 2001-2003 premiership winners.”
Runners-up: Hawthorn
Wooden spoon: West Coast Eagles
Brownlow Medal: Nick Daicos (Collingwood)
CORBIN MIDDLEMAS (Fox Footy/Midweek Tackle)
Top 10 changes: Sydney Swans, Western Bulldogs and Port Adelaide IN | GWS Giants OUT
Premiers: Brisbane Lions. “Unlike previous teams attempting a fourth consecutive GF, they’re not an ageing list; the majority of their best players are still in their physical prime, or coming into it.”
Runners-up: Gold Coast Suns
Wooden spoon: West Coast Eagles
Brownlow Medal: Nick Daicos (Collingwood)
Coleman Medal: Ben King (Gold Coast Suns)
LEIGH MONTAGNA (Fox Footy/First Crack)
Top 10 changes: Sydney Swans and Western Bulldogs IN | None OUT
Premiers: Brisbane Lions. “Brisbane are better positioned than last year — the three-peat is theirs for the taking.”
Runners-up: Sydney Swans
Wooden spoon: West Coast Eagles
Brownlow Medal: Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)
CAM MOONEY (Fox Footy)
Top 10 changes: Sydney Swans and Western Bulldogs IN | None OUT
Premiers: Brisbane Lions. “Too much talent, great experience and a lot of youth.”
Runners-up: Sydney Swans
Wooden spoon: West Coast Eagles
Brownlow Medal: Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)
Coleman Medal: Charlie Curnow (Sydney Swans)
JON RALPH (Herald Sun/Midweek Tackle)
Top 10 changes: Sydney Swans and Western Bulldogs IN | None OUT
Premiers: Brisbane Lions. “Two three-peats in just over a quarter of a century would put the Lions up with Collingwood’s Machine Team and the dominant Demons from 1955-1960.”
Runners-up: Gold Coast Suns
Wooden spoon: Richmond
Brownlow Medal: Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (St Kilda)
DWAYNE RUSSELL (Fox Footy)
Top 10 changes: Sydney Swans and Western Bulldogs IN | None OUT
Premiers: Brisbane Lions. “Their list is too good and too balanced to select anyone else.”
Runners-up: Sydney Swans. “Charlie Curnow and a fit Errol Gulden make a big difference.”
Wooden spoon: West Coast Eagles
Brownlow Medal: Nick Daicos (Collingwood)
Coleman Medal: Charlie Curnow (Sydney Swans)
Gut Punch crack down! | 01:25
WILL SCHOFIELD (Fox Footy/AFL Tonight)
Top 10 changes: Sydney Swans and Western Bulldogs IN | None OUT
Premiers: Fremantle. “They win two finals this year, if they do that, they will quite likely be in a grand final. Their list build has been exceptional and they have all the pieces to go all the way this year.”
Runners-up: Brisbane Lions
Wooden spoon: Essendon
Brownlow Medal: Nick Daicos (Collingwood)
Coleman Medal: Charlie Curnow (Sydney Swans)
BEN WATERWORTH (Foxfooty.com.au)
Top 10 changes: Sydney Swans, Western Bulldogs and St Kilda IN | GWS Giants OUT
Premiers: Sydney Swans. “After a forgettable start to 2025, the Swans enter 2026 healthy, with strong momentum, a decent draw and the missing puzzle pieces in Charlie Curnow. It’d be a big jump from 10th to the flag, but one this star-studded team is highly capable of doing.”
Runners-up: Brisbane Lions
Wooden spoon: West Coast Eagles
Brownlow Medal: Nick Daicos (Collingwood)
Coleman Medal: Riley Thilthorpe (Adelaide Crows)
LAUREN WOOD (Herald Sun/Midweek Tackle)
Top 10 changes: Sydney Swans and St Kilda IN | None OUT
Premiers: Geelong. “Close but no cigar and if they can have more stability off-field, there’s no reason why not.”
Runners-up: Brisbane Lions
Wooden spoon: West Coast Eagles
Brownlow Medal: Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (St Kilda)
DAVID ZITA (Fox Footy/AFL Tonight)
Top 10 changes: Sydney Swans and Western Bulldogs IN | None OUT
Premiers: Sydney Swans
Runners-up: Brisbane Lions
Wooden spoon: West Coast Eagles
Brownlow Medal: Nick Daicos (Collingwood)
Coleman Medal: Charlie Curnow (Sydney Swans)
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