After seven roiling months in college sports, Week 1 has finally arrived with Football Bowl Subdivision teams playing 91 games across the holiday weekend.
Now, move along, everyone. Nothing to see.
Several games have regional intrigue. But in terms of major intersection duels, Week 1 has little to offer. So barren is the landscape that Fox’s showcase Big Noon broadcast window on Saturday will feature Indiana against … North Texas.
The only ranked-versus-ranked Week 1 matchup, based on the AP preseason poll, comes Sunday afternoon when No. 9 Mississippi faces No. 24 Louisville. No offense to the Rebels and Cardinals, but that isn’t exactly Ohio State-Texas.
Fortunately, Ohio State-Texas is on the Week 2 schedule, along with Oklahoma-Michigan, but there are no other circle-the-date games on the second full Saturday of the season.
And the Week 3 lineup is frustratingly light, with Florida State-Alabama as the lone non-conference affair with a hint of national resonance.
But fret not, folks. Tony Petitti has a plan to save September. It begins in December, with College Football Playoff expansion.
The Big Ten commissioner is the foremost proponent of creating a 24-team event. Initially, he encountered stiff resistance. But in the past six months, his peers throughout the FBS conferences have offered support — to the point that only the SEC stands in the way of the CFP doubling in size in time for the 2027 season.
Petitti believes an expanded playoff would provide the pressure release needed to compel schools to schedule marquee early-season games. They wouldn’t view September losses as knockout blows because a 24-team field would inevitably include three- and perhaps four-loss teams.
“When you go to 24, you unlock a lot of really good ideas about how you schedule,” Petitti said during the Big Ten spring meetings in Rancho Palos Verdes. “I just think that’s a given in getting people to understand what a successful season is and how you can lose a game early and still be OK.”
Petitti’s first 24-team model included automatic bids. But after working through the concept, he settled on a format that has one automatic bid — for the top team in the Group of Six — and 23 spots for at-large bids. (In theory, the vast majority would go to the Big Ten and SEC.)
Yes, that would give more control to the CFP selection committee, which seemingly cares more about loss totals than quality wins. But the expanded access is considered worth the tradeoff.
“We talked to our athletic directors and coaches,” Petitti added. “‘Do your concerns about the committee go down enough (with 24) that you would schedule tough non-conference games and maintain whatever the conference schedule would be?’ And we came out on the side of, yes, it does.
“I’m just in a very different place. Those who feel like it hurts the regular season, I just have a hard time understanding.”
Those skeptical of Petitti’s plan worry that doubling the size of the playoff field would undermine the drama-filled regular season — that showdowns like Ohio State-Texas would lose their wallop because both teams have such wide paths into the CFP.
Petitti sees the situation differently. He believes opening access to three- and four-loss teams would make more games matter in October and November. Three-loss Iowa against three-loss Nebraska would have playoff implications.
In his view, the exclusivity that defines college football’s process for crowning a champion is all wrong.
“I don’t want to get too preachy,” Petitti said, “but when I (worked for Major League Baseball), we never had to convince anybody (in advance) that keeping more teams in the race is better for everybody. We never had to do that. I feel like in this space, we’re kind of being asked to do that. It’s almost counterintuitive. I think it’s good that more teams are alive as late as possible.
“For some reason, I think we’re up against some older traditions (in college football). It’s the last place where every team in the postseason has to have a legitimate chance to win a championship. That’s not the way the playoffs work in every other sport, including in the NCAA (basketball). But football’s hung on to that.
“(Expanding the playoff) makes the regular season better.”
For all the supporting evidence available at the professional level, Petitti’s plan hinges on coaches and athletic directors embracing the margin for error baked into a 24-team field.
The plan requires them to act on the opportunity and proactively create more rigorous non-conference schedules.
Perhaps it’s Georgia agreeing to a home-and-home series against Michigan.
Perhaps it’s Alabama playing Penn State on a neutral field.
Maybe it’s all the schools in the Big Ten and SEC approving a crossover series between the two conferences that unfolds over a series of Saturdays.
Without the change, Petitti believes, there could be many more Septembers like this one.
“I’m not sure much would change if you don’t get to 24,” he said. “I think (schools) will sort of see the scheduling parameters that you’re starting to see happen now. Those things will continue, which is teams weighing: ‘If I get to 7-2 in the Big Ten and go 3-0 in non-conference, I’m 10-2.’ That’s a pretty powerful position to make the CFP.
“I think you’ll see those calculations being made. And that may not lead to more great games being played.”
Petitti might be right. But how often do coaches willingly take the more difficult road?
Some will, occasionally. But the pressure to reach the CFP, whether it’s 12 or 24 teams, is intense enough that many could avoid the challenge at all costs.
They could tweak Petitti’s math for their own gain: Beat three non-conference creampuffs, win six league games, present the 9-3 record to a selection committee picking 23 at-large teams and start collecting the performance bonuses and signing those contract extensions.
Therein lies the risk: In contrast to their peers in the MLB, NFL and NBA, college football coaches control 25 percent of their schedules. They are free to feed on cupcakes.
And if they don’t embrace the challenge — if they opt for the easiest road into the CFP — then a central reason for expanding the event is rendered moot.
At that point, the sport would be left with a soft September, an engorged December and two middle months with drama that may not match the historical standard.
Because through all the unknowns, all the uncertainty, this much is clear: Once the CFP expands to 24, there’s no going back.
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