With just one round remaining in the NBL26 regular season, there is still plenty to play for.
But before Round 22 tips off, Round 21 delivered some of the biggest performances of the season as teams and players made their moves to lock in finals positioning.
Stars continued their red-hot form across the league, the playoff race remains just as congested as ever and a few lingering concerns have emerged for contenders at the worst possible time.
We break down all of it in the latest edition of NBL Talking Points.
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DOES A UNITED SUPERSTAR NEED A REST PRIOR TO FINALS?
Melbourne United head into the final round of the regular season searching for rhythm after going 1-3 across their last four games, splitting Round 21 with a win over the Cairns Taipans and a loss to the Illawarra Hawks on Sunday afternoon.
United survived a late scare against Cairns where Andrew Andrews turnovers late in the game helped Melbourne secure a four-point win, but they couldn’t build momentum against the Hawks despite jumping out early.
Tyson Walker was outstanding in the loss with 30 points, four assists, three rebounds and two steals on 44 per cent shooting, while Milton Doyle added 21 points, six assists, four rebounds and four steals. Jesse Edwards also impressed with 13 points, nine rebounds and two blocks.
The biggest concern for United surrounds superstar sharpshooter Chris Goulding, who is dealing with irritation behind his knee according to assistant coach Rhys Carter, who is filling in for Dean Vickerman.
“Up in Cairns, his little irritation in the back of his knee was bothering him. That’s why he didn’t play the second half,” Carter said.
“It’s not a major deal but I think it was in Cairns. I haven’t checked in how it was today, I think he wanted to just tough it up and get through it.
“We expect him to be at his best in the next game and into the playoffs,” Carter said.
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Across Round 21, Goulding averaged just six points and one assist while shooting 25 per cent from the field and 11.1 per cent from three-point range – well below his usual standards.
With one game remaining before the FIBA break, United may consider resting Goulding in their matchup against the South East Melbourne Phoenix as they prepare for a likely elimination clash, potentially against the Tasmania JackJumpers.
United have also been without head coach Dean Vickerman, who has missed the past two games following emergency surgery for appendicitis. Carter provided an update post-game.
“I think he is ok, he is recovering slowly, obviously a decent operation so he was going to come in today but I think he didn’t really sleep much last night,” Carter said.
“I think that was just soreness, recovery stuff from surgery so I think he is on the way back but hopefully we get him back this week.
“As fun as it is to stand on the sidelines he has been doing this a long time, it would be nice to have him back so we think he is on the right track.”
United’s final game against the Phoenix could still determine fourth or fifth position depending on other results, but the health of their star shooter will be the storyline to watch heading into the finals.
THE FORGOTTEN PIECE IN SYDNEY’S TITLE PUZZLE
The Sydney Kings are surging at the perfect time.
After Round 21, the Kings sit atop the NBL ladder with just one game remaining in the regular season, capping off a remarkable late-season run that has silenced doubts about their championship credentials.
Few knew where to place Sydney entering the year, but their recent form has answered those questions emphatically.
Victories over the Perth Wildcats and Illawarra Hawks extended the Kings’ winning streak to ten games and they now have the chance to make it eleven against the bottom-placed Brisbane Bullets.
In a roster filled with talent, minutes are hard to come by – but when Bul Kuol suffered a season-ending knee injury, an opportunity opened for a rising young guard.
Makuach Maluach has taken that opportunity with both hands and become a key figure in the Kings’ ten-game winning streak. Starting all ten contests, Maluach is averaging 11.3 points, 4.2 rebounds and 1.4 assists while shooting 48.3 per cent from the field and 30.2 per cent from three-point range.
The jump is significant compared to his opening ten rounds, where he averaged just 4.5 points and 2.2 rebounds on 40 per cent shooting.
Following Sydney’s 102-84 victory over the Perth Wildcats, head coach Brian Goorjian praised Maluach’s development after an 18-point performance that included a +21 plus-minus.
“I think if you go from last year, the winnings in the picking and when the season finished, the number one, and I told him, the most important meeting was his. And that I wanted him back,” Goorjian said.
“And I’d only been there for a year. I just started with a lot of new and when we had the injuries and he started to get more opportunity and the way he practiced and the way he finished the season, it was like, give me one more and I promise you, you’re going to be a happy man.
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“And from the start of this thing, he’s been an integral piece and he’s only getting better and he’s going to get even more,” Goorjian said.
“I just think our style of play and how with the defense up the floor and the pace and not running sets, also when you earmark guys, you’ve got to bring guys that the style of play suits them.
“And what we’ve pictured and the people that we’ve added to it, he’s a very important piece. And I felt very comfortable that if he came back, he would be huge for us and he’d be a very happy man,” Goorjian said.
Maluach will become a free agent following this season after signing a one-year deal with Sydney, and his recent performances are quickly increasing his value around the league.
For now, however, the focus remains on the upcoming finals – and the chance to add a championship to his resume.
His rise has been one of the quieter stories of the season, but with his continued growth, Maluach is shaping as one of the most sought-after young locals heading into the offseason.
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JACKJUMPERS HERO CONTINUES DOMINANT FORM
Following Round 21, the Tasmania JackJumpers have secured sixth spot on the NBL ladder and will feature in the NBL26 Finals series.
It has been a challenging season for the club, dealing with multiple season-ending injuries both before and throughout the campaign, but head coach Scott Roth was typically composed when reflecting on what it means for the group.
“My reaction is business as usual for us,” Roth said.
“We just get ready for Wednesday and we’ve got a hell of a month and these guys continue to just keep fighting and showing up and they earned their way through and that’s four times in five years for this franchise to be in the playoffs.”
With key players sidelined, others were required to step into larger roles – and one in particular has flourished without his usual running partners.
Majok Deng has been in outstanding form. Across the past four games, where the JackJumpers hold a 2-2 record, Deng is averaging 22.8 points, 6.5 rebounds and 2.3 assists while shooting 54 per cent from the field and 31.8 per cent from three-point range.
Against the South East Melbourne Phoenix in Round 21, Deng delivered one of the performances of the season – finishing with 36 points, nine rebounds and three assists on 78 per cent shooting from the field and 66.6 per cent from beyond the arc.
Post-game, Roth was full of praise for Deng and his recent stretch of form.
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“Yeah I mean you know my relationship with Jok is quite special. He’s one of my favourites of all time that I’ve ever been around,” Roth said.
“That’s including NBA players that I’ve been lucky enough to coach. And his story of where he’s come from and what he’s gone through and the man that he is off the floor.
“And if you saw him around Tasmania he’s the Pied Piper of kids man. He’s a father figure that everyone should follow.
“And he’s one of my favorites. And to see him have success and see him playing in our environment.
“And remember whatever it is now three years ago or two years ago that no one wanted him. And he’s come to us to do what he’s done and then win a championship with us. It’s a hell of a story,” Roth said.
Deng, who has played for three NBL clubs, has found a home in Tasmania after his final season with the Cairns Taipans didn’t go to plan and league interest dried up.
Now a championship player heading into the NBL26 Finals, Deng looms as arguably the JackJumpers’ most important piece as they look to trouble the rest of the top six.
THE PHOENIX ON FIRE BUT DEFENCE HAS DROPPED
The South East Melbourne Phoenix have built their identity on defence – forcing turnovers, creating deflections and speeding opponents up to generate three-point opportunities on the other end.
Since Round 15 the Phoenix have gone 9-3 across 12 games, but with finals approaching, the defensive end has begun to slip.
During this stretch they rank sixth in defensive rating, but tenth in opponent points per game allowing 100.7 points, ninth in opponent field goal percentage at 51.7 per cent and eighth in opponent three-point percentage at 36.3 per cent.
On the weekend, despite defeating the Tasmania JackJumpers, they conceded 104 points. For context, the JackJumpers have only scored 100+ points four times this season – two of those have come against the Phoenix.
Digging deeper into the numbers, South East Melbourne also sit ninth in opponent true shooting percentage (62.7%) and effective field goal percentage (58.2%) across the same period.
Offensively though, the Phoenix have been elite.
They rank second in offensive rating, first in scoring at 109.8 points per game, second in points per possession (1.29) and second in assists per game (23.2).
Their identity remains clear – perimeter shooting. The Phoenix lead the NBL in three-point attempts at 37.9 per game, converting 35.8 per cent.
The concern is simple: defence wins championships.
Since 2012, no NBL champion has finished outside the top three in defensive rating. While the Phoenix sit fourth across the entire season, recent form heading into finals is often the better indicator of postseason success.
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Josh King will look to tighten things up quickly, especially with one regular season game remaining and a likely matchup against the Perth Wildcats – a team that has beaten them in two of their past three meetings this season.
THE FINALS EQUATION IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT
If NBL26 has taught fans anything, it’s simple – expect the unexpected.
With one round remaining, five of the top six ladder positions can still change. The only certainty is the Tasmania JackJumpers, who have locked in sixth place and will enter the postseason through the Play-In.
The Sydney Kings sit in pole position and with a matchup against the bottom-placed Brisbane Bullets, are favourites to secure top spot. Even with a loss, their superior percentage means they are still highly likely to remain ahead of both the South East Melbourne Phoenix and Adelaide 36ers.
The Adelaide 36ers face the Perth Wildcats in one of the games of the season. A win guarantees Adelaide a top-two finish and keeps the door open for first place depending on Sydney’s result.
The Phoenix remain right in the hunt. If Adelaide lose and South East Melbourne win, they will jump into second – and with a big enough margin, could even climb to first.
For the Wildcats, a win over Adelaide secures fourth place and a Play-In game against the third-placed team, where the winner advances directly to the Semi Finals and the loser receives a second chance.
However, a loss combined with a Melbourne United victory over the Phoenix could see Perth slip to fifth.
United and Perth are therefore locked into fourth or fifth, but the order remains undecided.
Davis drives Kings past Phoenix | 02:02
The top two teams advance directly to a best-of-three Semi Final series, while the remaining four teams must survive the Play-In elimination games.
With ladder positions, playoff paths and home-court advantage all still up for grabs, every result in the final round will shape the championship race.
Awards will be decided, matchups finalised and title chances either strengthened – or severely complicated.
The final round of NBL26 is set to deliver chaos.
WHAT WE KNOW:
•JackJumpers: Locked 6th
• United & Wildcats: 4th or 5th
• Kings, 36ers & Phoenix: Top Three