College Football Week 11 Expert Picks, Predictions For Indiana-USC And More

It’s crunch time in college football. 

There’s another new No. 1 team. The College Football Playoff bracket is shaking out. Margins for error are thinner than ever, and the Week 11 results will impact the postseason picture. 

Saturday starts with an Ohio State team on the ropes taking on Northwestern on “Big Noon Kickoff.” 

The ACC regular-season champion could become clearer when No. 13 Wake Forest travels to play SMU. The same is true in the Big 12 as undefeated No. 2 Utah heads to face No. 23 Arizona. In the Big Ten, No. 18 USC’s CFP chances are still alive, and would come at the expense of knocking off the defending champion No. 9 Indiana. 

Conferences and playoff spots will continue to be decided in Week 11. We’re breaking down our straight-up picks and the matchups to watch closely throughout the weekend.  

When: Saturday, noon ET (FOX)
Where: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio
Line: OSU -12.5

RJ Young: Ohio State
Quarterback Luke Fahey gets the help he needs from a defense that has given up way too many explosives, and the Buckeyes’ wide receivers will finally catch the ball.

Laken Litman: Ohio State
The Buckeyes may be out of the CFP picture and coach Ryan Day may own that losing is unacceptable, but this team should still win their last three games, starting Saturday against Northwestern.

Ben Portnoy: Ohio State
Ohio State has done nothing to deserve the benefit of the doubt over the last two weeks. And yet, I still think the Buckeyes are winning this football game. For all the defensive issues OSU has had, I think they can out-athlete Northwestern enough offensively to avoid an upset.

When: Saturday, noon ET (ESPN)
Where: Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX
Line: SMU -1.5

Young: SMU
I think this is where Wake Forest finally finds out what it’s like to play a top-25 team for the first time in months. 

Litman: SMU
It’s been smooth sailing for Wake Forest, but now it’s time for the Mustangs to spoil the Deamon Deacons’ CFP hopes.

Portnoy: Wake Forest
Maybe it’s recency bias I have from spending time over on campus, but I’m buying all the Wake Forest stock I can right now. SMU’s highs have been incredibly high. The lows, well, you get the point. If quarterback Gio Lopez is healthy, this could be the last real test the Demon Deacons face en route to a potential CFP berth.

When: 3:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Where: Kyle Field, College Station, TX
Line: SMU -1.5

Young: Tennessee
The Volunteers have been operating like a team that can do damage in the CFP.

Litman: Tennessee
It’s been a tough year for Texas A&M and Tennessee is looking like a team destined to make the playoff.

Portnoy: Tennessee
Tennessee has its flaws, but it can steadily run the football. Texas A&M showed signs of life last week at South Carolina, but I’m skeptical quarterback Marcel Reed can do enough against this Volunteers’ defense to win on Rocky Top.

When: 3:30 p.m. ET (FS1)
Where: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Oregon
Line: Oregon -10

Young: Oregon
The Ducks have found an identity while the Michigan Wolverines have a head coach who forgot Ohio State was on the schedule.

Litman: Oregon
Kyle Whittingham fired his offensive coordinator Jason Beck, but that won’t help Michigan’s cause on the road. The Ducks get another conference win after beating Ohio State last week.

Portnoy: Oregon
I admittedly have forgotten about Oregon for most of the last few weeks, but the Ducks are showing signs of life and might just play their way back into the CFP conversation. Considering that, and whatever it is Michigan put on the field in last week’s loss to Michigan State, give me Oregon big.

When: 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
Where: Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, Indiana
Line: Indiana -7.5

Young: Indiana
The Trojans aren’t the same on the road. In their last road trip, Wisconsin crushed Lincoln Riley’s offense. The Hoosiers might do the same.

Litman: Indiana
This is a must-win for the Hoosiers because one more loss means the defending champs are likely on the outside of the 12-team CFP, without another top-25 opponent on their schedule.

Portnoy: Indiana
Indiana is flying by the seat of its pants, and the bye week couldn’t have come at a better time. I think this game ends up being a bit tighter than the spread indicates, as USC has started to find its stride post-Ohio State. I think the Hoosiers defense does enough to win.

When: 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
Where: Memorial Stadium, Norman, Oklahoma
Line: Ole Miss -1.5

Young: Oklahoma
Oklahoma has a grown-up calling its offense for the first time in two years in former Dallas Cowboys tight end Jason Witten. 

Litman: Oklahoma
The Sooners have a new playcaller running the show in Jason Witten, and will ride momentum from an impressive road win over Florida to another top-25 win over Ole Miss, who is still recovering from getting blown out by Georgia.

Portnoy: Ole Miss
Don’t look now, but Oklahoma has shown a little bit offensively under play-caller Jason Witten . I don’t think it’s enough to keep up with Ole Miss, but this could turn into one of the more interesting games of the day.

When: 6:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Where: Kroger Field, Lexington, Kentucky
Line: Kentucky -3.5

Young: Kentucky
The Wildcats are a complete team while the Gators continue to play musical chairs at quarterback.

Litman: Kentucky
Sitting at No. 11 in the CFP rankings, the Wildcats need a big performance to show that last week’s loss to Tennessee was a fluke. They’ll do that by beating a Florida team that’s lost four of its last five games.

Portnoy: Kentucky
Florida is maybe the weirdest team in America to peg week to week, but I think Kentucky and coach Will Stein bounce back after being completely overmatched at Tennessee. I’ll take quarterback Kenny Minchey to have a big day.

When: 7:30 p.m. ET (FOX)
Where: Casino Del Sol Stadium, Tuscon, Arizona
Line: Utah -2.5

Young: Utah
Utah simply likes me to pick against it: I’m 0-2 picking against the Utes. Let’s see how good they are when I side with them. 

Litman: Utah
The Utes get another statement win by going on the road and beating Arizona in what could easily be a letdown game after last week’s Holy War victory.

Portnoy: Utah
I’m all in on the Utes. I’d argue they should’ve been the No. 1 team in the most recent College Football Playoff. Arizona has been a great story and head coach Brent Brennan deserves far more credit for the job he’s done this season, but I think the Utah offense and quarterback Devon Dampier are the difference.

When: 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
Where: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, Louisiana
Line: LSU -4

Young: Texas
The Longhorns beat Missouri with an undermanned offense. They’re talented enough to go into Death Valley and emerge with a win.

Litman: Texas
Little by little, the Longhorns are showing improvement each week. Now that edge rusher Colin Simmons is back, it’s hard to imagine any offense moving the ball against Texas’ defense. 

Portnoy: LSU
As much as coach Lane Kiffin gets killed for not winning big games, I have no idea what to make of Texas. It’d be pretty much perfect for the Tigers to fall flat last week and then win in Death Valley. I’ll take the underdog.

When: 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Where: Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, Oklahoma
Line: Oklahoma State -3.5

Young: Oklahoma State
Quarterback Drew Mestemaker simply can’t be stopped (by anyone other than Tulsa).

Litman: Texas Tech
Tommy Castellanos put up big numbers and threw five touchdown passes in a wild win over West Virginia last week. He’ll lead the Red Raiders to their last ranked win of the regular season as they try to secure a CFP spot.

Portnoy: Texas Tech
The Red Raiders look like a completely different offense with Tommy Castellanos running things under center. Is that enough to keep up with Drew Mestemaker? I’ll give Texas Tech the edge, even on the road.