INVESTEC CHAMPIONS CUP
Connacht have picked a strong side, but Saracens have arrived with a serious Champions Cup XV.
Connacht make three changes in the tight five from last week’s defeat to Glasgow, with Francois van Wyk, Matthew Victory and Josh Murphy coming into the starting XV. Sam Illo and Darragh Murray retain their places.
Connacht selection changes
Colm Reilly starts at scrum-half alongside Ciarán Frawley, while Bundee Aki moves to 12 and Cathal Forde shifts to 13. Sam Gilbert, Finn Treacy and Shane Jennings form an entirely new starting back three from last week.
Only five players retain the same starting position from Glasgow: Illo, Darragh Murray, Prendergast, Jansen and Frawley.
I know managers often have these selections planned weeks in advance, so we can’t say it is picked because of recent performances. But I really like the blend of it. It may look a little weaker on paper, but it is still a very strong Connacht side.
I much prefer Jennings and Treacy in the back three, while Daniel Ryan on the bench is going to be a future Ireland international. Plenty of tries in this Connacht team.
The big concern: Connacht’s maul defence
There is a huge concern in the pack, though. Connacht’s maul defence was badly exposed in Glasgow, where they conceded four driving-maul tries, while their discipline also fell apart with 18 penalties conceded. Across the opening three games, they have conceded 43 penalties while winning only 22 themselves.
Against a Saracens side with Jamie George, Maro Itoje and Ben Earl, that is the part of this game that could decide everything.
Connacht’s opening three URC games have brought one win and two defeats, while the Champions Cup draw could hardly be worse: Saracens at home, Exeter away, Toulouse at home and La Rochelle away. It is the pool of death, so have Connacht already thrown in the Champions Cup towel? This selection doesn’t tell us.
“We fought hard to get back playing Champions Cup rugby, and now that we’re here we want to seize the opportunity.”
— Stuart Lancaster
Lancaster knows the draw “couldn’t have been much tougher”, but has insisted Connacht are not in the competition merely to make up the numbers. Earlier this week, he said the side would fight to qualify.
SARACENS WATCH
Saracens have brought the big guns
Saracens make seven changes to the starting team that beat a really good Bristol 30–7 last week.
Into the XV come Eroni Mawi, Marcus Street, Hugh Tizard, Tomos Williams, Rotimi Segun, Nick Tompkins and Elliot Daly. Jamie George, Maro Itoje, Toby Knight, Ben Earl, Owen Farrell, Sione Va’enuku and Noah Caluori retain their places.
This is a massive step up from the Bristol team. The core of George, Itoje, Earl and Farrell was already there, but adding Tomos Williams, Daly and Tompkins gives them far more control and class in the backs. Their tight five also looks more like a full Champions Cup front five with Mawi, Street and Tizard coming in.
The key difference is the half-backs: Tomos Williams is a serious attacking threat around the ruck and will make Saracens much more dangerous than Charlie Bracken did last week. Farrell has plenty of strike runners outside him too, with Segun, Caluori and Daly all capable of punishing any loose Connacht kicking.
Connacht have picked a good side, but this confirms Saracens have not travelled over to give fringe lads a run. It is an extremely strong XV, with a bench that includes Barbeary, Brantingham, Isiekwe and Fergus Burke.
Saracens -2 looks a steal but we will all be hoping Connacht can pull off a miracle