The Hotline mailbag publishes weekly. Send questions to wilnerhotline@
If you missed it, last week’s edition examined the critical difference between possible World Cup expansion to 64 teams and a doubling of the College Football Playoff field to 24.
Time for a report card: Washington State and Oregon State are concluding their two-year transition era. How would Professor Wilner grade their performance from 2024-26? And maybe include the Pac-12 conference office, as well? — Seattleite206
An interesting assignment, for sure, with the rebuilt Pac-12 just one month from its return to the field.
In all candor, we don’t have a great feel for the performance of the Olympic sports in Pullman and Corvallis and prefer instead to focus on football and men’s basketball, along with overall approach to membership and other issues.
(For those who might have forgotten, the schools competed in a two-team league in football and were affiliate members of the West Coast Conference in basketball.)
Our grades and comments:
WSU football: A. The Cougars were bowl-eligible both years and accomplished the feat despite yet another coaching change, with Jake Dickert leaving after 2024 and Jimmy Rogers taking over for 2025 before he, too, departed. (As we have noted previously, the Cougars are remarkably resilient given all the coaching turnover and off-field challenges they have faced since the pre-pandemic departure of Mike Leach.) It’s tough to find fault with 15 wins, two bowl bids and a victory in the Apple Cup.
OSU football: D+. We won’t dive deep into the Trent Bray hire. It was a complete whiff at precisely the wrong time, crushed whatever momentum remained from the Jonathan Smith era and placed the Beavers at a disadvantage relative to their peers in the new Pac-12. Why not give OSU an F? Because the first half of the 2024 season was successful. Also, we’re feeling generous.
WSU basketball: C-. The Cougars were reasonably competitive in the WCC for two seasons under David Riley, compiling a 31-35 overall record and 15-21 mark in conference play. But that compared poorly to the state of the program in the final season of the former Pac-12, when WSU reached the NCAA Tournament under Kyle Smith. So far, we have not been impressed with Riley. If the Cougars struggle in 2026-27, a change could be in order.
OSU basketball: B-. The two years competing in the WCC served as the final two years of the Wayne Tinkle era, which lasted several seasons longer than it should have. The Beavers were 37-29 overall and 19-17 in conference play. They finished alone in fifth place the first year and alone in fourth the second — not bad considering the best they could have possibly done was third place (behind Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s).
Pac-12 strategy: A. This is really the only grade of consequence, because survival was the only outcome that mattered. The Cougars and Beavers were always better off in a reconstructed Pac-12, as opposed to joining the Mountain West.
They took the 10 departing schools to court over governing control (and assets), cobbled together football schedules for two years, found a home for basketball and Olympic sports, raided the Mountain West for five schools, sued the Mountain West over $55 million in penalties, landed Gonzaga as the tentpole for basketball, signed a media deal with CBS, The CW and USA Network, planted the conference flag in Texas (with Texas State) and got creative with the football schedule (i.e., the flex weekend).
Could the two wilderness years have unfolded any better? Only if the Pac-12 had landed one or two more football programs.
But once the American trio (Memphis, Tulane, South Florida) balked in the fall of 2024, there were limited options for adding members that would not undermine the conference’s overall competitive and financial value.
Put another way: The Pac-12 was better off keeping the expansion bar high and navigating life with eight football schools than lowering the standard in order to ease the operational challenges of an eight-team football conference.
Had you laid out this outcome for neutral observers back in the fall of 2023, after the Pac-12’s implosion, and asked them to assess the Pac-12’s strategy, the reaction, in our estimation, would have been overwhelmingly positive.
What would the playoff look like for a super league of 32 teams? Could the Big Ten and SEC actually have fewer teams than they would with a 24-team College Football Playoff? — Jeff F
Yes, but there are caveats — many, many caveats.
First, a true super league of 32 would not feature the SEC and Big Ten as we know them. It would include the top football schools from all the conferences, combined in a new entity that, in theory, would be structured in a fashion that limits antitrust exposure.
Second, a super league postseason would function much like the NFL’s playoff model, with 12 or 14 teams. (Perhaps it gets to 16.) But the participants would know all this in advance. There would be no surprises.
Texas, Ohio State, Michigan, Georgia and others would agree to form the super league because 1) they are weary of subsidizing the lesser football brands in their current conferences and 2) the TV money for regular season games will be astronomical. We’re talking orders-of-magnitude greater than the schools currently receive.
Any loss of access to the super league playoff, compared to the CFP, would be a secondary consideration.
To be clear: The industry remains several massive steps, and many years away, from a super league. But the likelihood of that endgame materializing in the 2030s is clearly non-zero.
How long before college football and basketball jerseys look like Liga MX soccer jerseys? — @bogeycat85
The barrage of jersey patch announcements in recent weeks, from the Big 12’s conference-wide deal with Monster Energy to Ohio State’s agreement with Chase and Notre Dame’s deal with SoFi, are a sign of the times and six months in the making.
The Division I Cabinet approved the use of commercial patches on uniforms in January, albeit with restrictions that should prevent uniforms from turning into the billboards you see in Liga MX and elsewhere across the soccer world.
The NCAA rule permits schools “up to two additional commercial logos on their uniforms and apparel and one additional commercial logo on equipment.” Also, each patch “will be limited to a maximum of 4 square inches per logo.”
So, two small patches per jersey. That likely means one on the chest (above the heart) and one on the sleeve. Purists won’t be pleased, but it’s not awful aesthetically. And the patches will help fund roster compensation.
Yep, this is a direct response to the shifting economics. Schools must cover the $21 million (approximately) in revenue sharing and whatever is allocated in name, image and likeness compensation.
If you’re curious about the jersey patch marketplace, some numbers are available.
The Big 12’s partnership with Monster is reportedly paying each school $1.25 million — not exactly a windfall. Meanwhile, Ohio State’s agreement with Chase generates $17 million annually for the Buckeyes. And Notre Dame is expected to receive a bit more from SoFi.
Only a handful of FBS schools will come close to the Buckeyes and Irish. Most will be fortunate to receive $5 million per patch.
Look for more deals to be revealed in coming weeks.
Do you think the SEC and Big Ten would ever band together and create a playoff made up exclusively of teams from their conferences? Do you think that this would be financially feasible? — Bob O
Considering they threatened to do exactly that two years ago, yes: They very well might make the attempt.
In the spring of 2024, the two behemoths linked arms and used the threat of creating their own postseason tournament as leverage to extract governing control of the College Football Playoff.
That’s why commissioners Tony Petitti (Big Ten) and Greg Sankey (SEC) are in charge of the CFP’s future format (e.g., expansion to 16 or 24) and required merely to consult with the other commissioners.
Would a playoff featuring the 34 teams in those conferences appeal to media partners? Absolutely. And it would generate billions.
Whichever networks owned the broadcast rights would prefer any playoff format include the ACC, Big 12, Group of Six and, of course, Notre Dame. But they would not turn down the chance to broadcast Texas against Ohio State and Alabama against Michigan in the semifinals or quarterfinals or whatever.
That said, the Big Ten and SEC would face enormous political backlash (governors, congressional representatives, etc.) if they attempted to blow up the current system.
With the rise of the NIL-driven in-season basketball tournaments (Players Era, etc.) and their ability to attract the best teams, what does the mean for the traditional events like the Maui Invitational? — @Wazzucoug1996
This could be reframed as: Where have you gone, Great Alaska Shootout?
In reality, the Shootout folded long before NIL became the law of the land, but it represents a previous era for the late-November tournaments that were immensely popular for decades.
The Maui Invitational remains intact. In fact, it just announced the opening-round matchups for November: Mississippi-Clemson, Washington-BYU, Virginia Commonwealth-Providence and Colorado State-Arizona.
That’s not a bad lineup, but it’s nothing like the Maui fields of years past. In 2023, for example, Purdue, Kansas, UCLA and Gonzaga participated.
The Hotline isn’t prepared to predict a prosperous future for Maui or its impending demise — so much depends on the title sponsor — but as far as we know, it’s the last tournament standing from the 1990s.
Clearly, the trend for multi-team events favors the NIL-driven tournaments, and the Players Era Festival, which counts the Big 12 as an equity investor, is atop the list.
How long will it take Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State to say they are playing on the West Coast once per season … and only against the L.A. schools? — @jimmy0726
College football has a litany of problems, but we don’t see that scenario as realistic.
After expanding to 18 schools, the Big Ten established parameters for football travel — teams in the Eastern and Central Time Zones make just one trip to the West Coast per season — and the conference’s three traditional powers must abide by the policy.
They can’t refuse to play in Seattle and Eugene, and why would they? Those are marquee games in stellar environments. There are no downsides, save for any elevated risk of losing (compared to playing in Los Angeles).
In the sport’s former era, schools favored playing in Southern California for recruiting purposes. That isn’t as critical with new economics. Recruiting decisions are based primarily on compensation packages.
What you won’t see (in our opinion) is Ohio State or Michigan playing on the West Coast in November. They want no part of long trips during the most important stretch of the season.
What is the breakdown for revenue streams for college athletic departments, in terms of dollars or percentages? — Ed H
The numbers vary widely based on the school, the sports sponsored (i.e., football) and the conference. Also, is the university urban or rural, public or private? Is it a land grant school?
If we narrow the discussion to major football-playing schools, the finances become a tad easier to explain: The three primary buckets of revenue are ticket sales, donations and conference distributions, which include both media rights and postseason revenue.
Some schools lean more heavily into ticket sales than others. Some are more reliant upon fundraising than others. Every athletic department is unique.
Let’s use two examples:
— Utah booked $101.8 million in revenue in the 2025 fiscal year, according to NCAA financial reports. Roughly $40 million came from the Big 12, while $39 million was through donations and $11 million from ticket sales.
— Washington reported $121 million in total revenue, with $41 million in fundraising and $27 million in football ticket sales. The Huskies also received about $48 million from the Big Ten, which was $30 million less than the conference’s full-share members.
The biggest brands in college sports collect far more — Ohio State generated $336 million in revenue — and the smaller schools (those outside the power conferences) take in much less.
But regardless of campus economics, all the schools have one thing in common: They spend what they generate.
After all, these are non-profit entities that face massive cost pressures in order to compete for the best players and coaches and have the nicest facilities.
Put on your prediction hat: What happens to college football in the next five or 10 years? How different will it be? — Rico T
A plethora of scenarios exist, and the Hotline cannot begin to guess which is most likely. However, we could soon know when the future trajectory will take shape.
If the Protect College Sports Act becomes law, the industry will veer in one direction.
If it fizzles in the Senate or House of Representatives, college sports could take a different path into the 2030s.
The current timeline on Capitol Hill is tenuous. Despite multiple rounds of negotiations, the Big Ten and SEC have not given their blessing to the legislation. Without that, the bill has little chance to pass the Senate, much less the House.
If there is no vote next week, prior to the August recess, the likelihood of passage is just this side of zero.
Congress will be fully engrossed in midterm elections starting in September, and any change in legislative control come 2027 would place the bill in further peril.
Once we know the fate of the bill, the Hotline will return to this question and offer a projection for the future of the industry.
With the former Pac-12 schools playing football and basketball games in new venues, does the Hotline plan to attend away games for the Bay Area teams? — Wayne N
There are no current plans for the Hotline to travel to ACC country for Stanford and Cal road games, particularly with such modest preseason expectations for each team.
However, we typically attend a handful of home games and will do that again in 2026, starting with a delicious Labor Day weekend combination: The Cardinal hosts Miami on Friday evening while Cal welcomes UCLA on Saturday night.
It’s the best Week 1 lineup of home games for the Bay Area schools in forever: The national runners-up one day; a rivalry game the next.
Given the bitterness many Cal fans continue to feel over UCLA’s departure from the Pac-12, we expect a stellar atmosphere in Memorial Stadium.
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