A single Saturday remains before the initial College Football Playoff rankings. If this weekend is anything like the previous two, expectations for the order of teams will be quickly rendered moot. The carnage spares no conference or region.
Regardless of the Week 9 wins and losses, the CFP selection committee must address several specific issues — issues that are sure to rankle fans and spur debate on both social and legacy media. (Which is, ahem, why ESPN insists on televising the ranking shows in the first place.)
Here are four topics to monitor this week and into the Nov. 3 rankings reveal:
— Fate of the three-loss teams
The ACC and SEC moved to nine-game conference schedules this fall, meaning both have added losses to their overall ledgers.
Last year, the first CFP rankings featured four SEC teams in the top 10; all four had fewer than two losses. As of this moment, only Georgia and Kentucky have fewer than two defeats, and the Bulldogs play Florida on Saturday. (Kentucky is idle.)
Where will the best three-loss teams be slotted? Will any of them make the top 12?
In past years, the committee has shown an unfortunate obsession with loss totals and repeatedly declined to place 9-3 teams into the at-large field.
It might not have a choice this season.
— Notre Dame’s position
The Irish receive special consideration within the CFP selection process: They are guaranteed an at-large berth if ranked in the top 12 at the end of the season.
They have one loss thus far (at BYU) and dates with two ranked teams in November (Miami and SMU).
At 11-1, they would be a lock for the top 12.
At 9-3, they would have no quality wins and no chance to make the field.
But what if they split the matchups with No. 1 Miami and No. 19 SMU and finish 10-2? Their position in the initial rankings will offer clues as to the thickness of the cushion on which Notre Dame’s season rests.
— Big 12 respect … or not?
Based on records, the Big 12 is vastly better positioned for the CFP than in either of the past two seasons. It has four teams with fewer than two losses (Utah, BYU, Arizona and Texas Tech), the same total as the Big Ten.
Granted, that could change for both leagues this weekend. But it will be fascinating to watch the committee’s treatment of the zero- and one-loss teams from the Big 12 compared to their equivalents in the Big Ten.
Keep in mind, the Big 12 is 6-7 against other power conferences, while the Big Ten is 4-10.
— The Group of Six status
One of the 12 CFP bids is reserved for the highest-ranked team in the Group of Six leagues.
Based on results and resumes compiled to date, Boise State seemingly is the frontrunner (assuming the Broncos handle Texas State this weekend).
But will the Broncos even crack the committee rankings? Could a second team from the Group of Six make an appearance? Maybe it’s UT San Antonio (American) or New Mexico (Mountain West). Could Oregon State be included?
Our hunch is the committee will lean into the power conferences at this stage, regardless of the mayhem created this weekend.
To the bowl projections …
Pac-12 legacy bowls
College Football Playoff
Team: Utah
Comment: Three Saturdays left in a four-game gauntlet that began with the victory over Houston and features Cincinnati (road), BYU (home) and Arizona (road). The Utes (7-0) can afford one loss, but two probably would put them at the mercy of the Big 12 tiebreaker.
Alamo Bowl
Team: UCLA
Comment: With one loss, the Bruins (7-0) should clear the CFP bar. But our current forecast calls for two defeats down the stretch, which could be problematic given the soft schedule: There’s a decent chance UCLA finishes with just one victory over a ranked opponent.
Las Vegas Bowl
Team: Arizona
Comment: The best team nobody knows about has a chance to enter the thick of the Big 12 race with a victory at Texas Tech. Notably, the Wildcats (6-1) throttled Cincinnati, which just thumped the Red Raiders.
Holiday Bowl
Team: Oregon State
Comment: What a twist it would be if the Beavers (5-2) advance to the CFP before USC, UCLA and Washington after their leading roles in killing the old Pac-12. We aren’t there quite yet, but you can see that endgame forming on the horizon.
Sun Bowl
Team: USC
Comment: The Trojans (6-2) and their interim head coach would face a team from the ACC in El Paso.
Poinsettia Bowl
Team: Oregon
Comment: How low can they go? In theory, the Ducks (4-3) could fail to even qualify for a bowl berth. They need two wins in their final five games. When you can’t score, no game is easy.
Independence Bowl
Team: Washington
Comment: Talk about return on investment: The Huskies (4-3) have the same record as Oregon and spent about half as much as the Ducks ($40 million) on their roster.
At-large/ESPN bowl pool
Team: Arizona State
Comment: The Sun Devils (4-3) need two wins in their final five games and will be favored once (perhaps twice). But the running game’s emergence with tailback Cardae Mack has improved our forecast.
Non-qualifier
Team: Cal
Comment: For the first time in weeks, we gave serious consideration to slotting the Bears (3-5) into a bowl game. Their date at NC State this week appears more winnable after the Wolfpack 1) lost to Stanford and 2) fired coach Dave Doeren. So we’re saying there’s a chance.
Non-qualifier
Team: Colorado
Comment: With each week, there is less of a distinction between the end of the Karl Dorrell era in Boulder (2022) and the current state of the Deion Sanders era. The Buffaloes (2-5) have managed to lose 12 of their past 13 conference games.
Non-qualifier
Team: Stanford
Comment: The deeper you drill, the worse the resume looks. That would explain why the Cardinal (4-4) is dead last among all 68 Power Four teams in ESPN’s power ratings (Football Power Index). But the math is the math, and with two more wins, they are bowling.
Non-qualifier
Team: Washington State
Comment: The Boise State game was marked as a loss upon release of the conference schedule. The problem is that several games we counted as wins have also been losses for the Cougars (1-7), who are headed to their worst season in years.
Pac-12 new bowls
College Football Playoff
Team: Boise State
Comment: Good time to mention that the Group of Six representative in the CFP does not need to be a conference champion but, rather, the highest-ranked team. In theory, the Broncos (6-1) could qualify if they win out, then lose to Oregon State in the Pac-12 championship.
Poinsettia Bowl
Team: Fresno State
Comment: If the Pac-12 doesn’t send a team to the CFP, its champion would drop into the Poinsettia and push all remaining eligible teams into the Hawaii Bowl and the group of ESPN-controlled games. So the Bulldogs (4-3) could be at the mercy of forces beyond their control.
Hawaii Bowl
Team: Texas State
Comment: The tougher-than-expected win over Utah State did wonders for the Bobcats (4-3). Even if they lose in Boise and Corvallis, the bowl math should work in their favor.
Non-qualifier
Team: Colorado State
Comment: The Rams (3-4) need to win one game they shouldn’t and two they should in order to reach the six-win threshold. With their defense, the odds are stacked against them like shelves at Costco.
Non-qualifier
Team: San Diego State
Comment: The loss at Colorado State leaves the Aztecs (3-5) with two options: They must handle Washington State and Utah State at home and win at Boise State or get help from the Pac-12 in terms of the Flex Saturday assignment.
Non-qualifier
Team: Utah State
Comment: The Aggies (2-5) have lost two games (Washington and Texas State) by a total of five points. Flip those results, and they would be cruising into Bowl Season. Of course, they beat Washington State by one point, so things also could be worse.
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