Welcome the Hotline’s weekly picks against the point spread, published Thursdays throughout the regular season with a focus on the top games nationally and the most intriguing matchups across the West. The betting lines are courtesy of VegasInsider.com unless noted otherwise. Games involving FCS teams are not included. Picks are for entertainment purposes only … unless they aren’t.
The Pac-12 returns to the college football stage this weekend with expectations so low, at least in Las Vegas, that they might as well be subterranean.
Oddsmakers have installed Pac-12 teams as massive underdogs in all five head-to-head matchups against opponents from the Big 12, Big Ten and SEC.
Those long odds exist despite recent history that suggests competitive matchups:
— Boise State is a 24.5-point underdog at Oregon even though the Broncos nearly won in Eugene two years ago and have the same starting quarterback (Maddux Madsen).
— Oregon State is a 20.5-point underdog at Houston despite pushing the Cougars to overtime last season in Corvallis.
— Washington State is a 22.5-point underdog at Washington in the Apple Cup even though the Cougars won in Seattle, at Lumen Field, two years ago.
— Fresno State is a 22.5-point underdog at USC even though the Trojans were not dominant defensively last weekend in a 16-point win over San Jose State, which doesn’t have Fresno State’s personnel.
Add Texas State as a 30.5-point underdog at Texas — the first meeting in a century between the Bobcats and Longhorns — and the Pac-12 quintet is 120.5 combined points short of their Power Four opponents on the point-spread ledger.
The whopping disparity reflects the state of the sport. Yes, it’s flattening at the top, with more teams capable of winning the national championship. But the gap between tiers is expanding rapidly as the talent flows up the food chain, fueled by the transfer portal and NIL.
The Big Ten and SEC are increasing their competitive advantages over the ACC and Big 12, while the Power Four collectively is leaving the Group of Six behind.
That said, the whopping point spreads offer the rebuilt Pac-12 a stellar opportunity to produce an upside surprise in its debut. The bar is low enough that anything short of a blowout in two or three of the head-to-head matchups mentioned above could result in a victory for its reputation and, potentially, boost its prospects for the College Football Playoff.
After this weekend, the Pac-12 has just seven dates remaining with Power Four opponents and only two with the SEC and Big Ten: San Diego State at UCLA and Utah State at Washington.
The conference has billed itself as the best in the Group of Six — specifically, executives use the term “top five” to describe its place in the hierarchy: below the Power Four but above the American, Mountain West, Sun Belt, Conference USA and MAC.
Judgment lies with the scoreboard, starting this weekend.
To the picks …
Fresno State (+22.5) at USC
Kickoff: Friday at 6 p.m. on Fox
Comment: The Trojans possess a significant competitive advantage, having played last weekend while Fresno State is taking the field for the first time. What’s more, the Bulldogs have a newly named starting quarterback, Jayden Mandal, with just nine career passing attempts to his name. Pick: USC
Miami (-24.5) at Stanford
Kickoff: Friday at 6 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: The Hurricanes have a massive advantage in personnel, both at the line of scrimmage and on the perimeter, but coach Mario Cristobal has not been at his best in Stanford Stadium. His last appearance there, with Oregon in 2021, ended with an overtime loss in which his game management was spotty (as was the officiating). Pick: Stanford
Oregon State (+20.5) at Houston
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on ESPN
Comment: An early kickoff for the Beavers in the Houston heat, combined with a new coaching staff? No thanks. We will take the home team and feel quite comfortable about it. Pick: Houston
Boise State (+24.5) at Oregon
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on CBS
Comment: One of the most interesting games of Week 1 with the stratospheric expectations for the Ducks this fall — they won the offseason natty, again — and with so much on the line for the visitors. The Broncos don’t need to win outright to keep their path to the College Football Playoff open. But a competitive performance would greatly enhance their chances, just as it did two years ago. Pick: Oregon
Wyoming (+3.5) at Colorado State
Kickoff: 3 p.m. on USA Sports
Comment: The Hotline included this game because it’s the Colorado State debut for Jim Mora and because rivalries are always interesting as season openers. This is the 118th installment of the Border War but the first with the Rams as a member of the Pac-12. Pick: Wyoming
Western Michigan (+28.5) at Michigan
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on NBC
Comment: We heard the Wolverines have a new coach who likes to run the ball and bully opponents at the line of scrimmage. Can anyone confirm? Pick: Michigan
Clemson (+10.5) at LSU
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on ABC
Comment: The marquee game of the day features an unranked visitor, which says plenty about the state of Clemson’s program and even more about the disappointing Week 1 schedule. The home Tigers should win comfortably as quarterback Sam Leavitt, formerly of Arizona State, announces his candidacy for the Heisman Trophy with a stellar debut. Pick: LSU
UNLV (-1.5) at Hawaii
Kickoff: 7 p.m. on The CW
Comment: Both teams played last weekend, with the host losing a late lead at Stanford and the visitor crumbling against Memphis. The Rebels are in must-win mode if they hope to have any chance of earning the Group of Six’s playoff spot. Pick: UNLV
UCLA (-1.5) at Cal
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: The rivals collide for the first time since the Pac-12’s implosion in the #AfterDark TV slot. Both have first-year coaches, elite quarterbacks and lofty expectations that can only be met with a victory in the Calimony Bowl. Notably, the line opened with the Bears as a slight favorite and has swung to UCLA. A sellout crowd is expected in Strawberry Canyon. Most will head home disappointed. Pick: UCLA
Washington State (+22.5) at Washington
Kickoff: Sunday at 1 p.m. on NBC
Comment: A superb kickoff window for the Apple Cup, with zero competition and a football-starved audience. The Cougars upset UW at Lumen Field two years ago, but much has changed for both teams. For instance, the Huskies’ roster has been upgraded, especially on the lines of scrimmage, while WSU’s two-deep seemingly has gotten worse amid multiple coaching changes. Don’t be surprised if the hosts run up the score. Pick: Washington
Notre Dame (-20.5) vs. Wisconsin (in Green Bay)
Kickoff: Sunday at 4:30 p.m. on NBC
Comment: The first game of the fall at Lambeau Field will serve as the start of Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr’s Heisman Trophy campaign. Yep, he’s that good. And so are the Irish. Our only concern: the potential for a backdoor cover. Pick: Wisconsin
SMU (-2.5) at Florida State
Kickoff: Monday at 4:30 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: One of these teams is a legitimate playoff contender, and it’s not the Seminoles. They did not exactly overwhelm New Mexico State in the opener but at least worked through a litany of mistakes (eight penalties) and should be the sharper team Monday night. Pick: Florida State
Straight-up winners: USC, Miami, Houston, Oregon, Wyoming, Michigan, LSU, UNLV, UCLA, Washington, Notre Dame and Florida State
Five-star special: USC. The Trojans were a tad underwhelming in the Week 0 victory over San Jose State, which undoubtedly contributed to a point spread (22.5) that masks their overwhelming advantage in personnel over Fresno State.
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