Predicted NSW Blues team for State of Origin Game 1, how many Panthers players will be picked by Laurie Daley, Tom Jenkins, Casey McLean

Contenders: To’o, Tom Jenkins, Josh Addo-Carr, Jacob Kiraz, Campbell Graham, Mark Nawaqanitawase, Tom Trbojevic, Dallin Watene-Zelezniak

Analysis: You can lock Brian To’o in for one of the two spots on the wing. As for who replaces Zac Lomax after his rugby switch, there are several different routes Daley could go. If he wants a proven performer in the Origin area, Josh Addo-Carr is the easy option. Tom Trbojevic could be picked for the same reasons, while Campbell Graham is as dependable as they come even if he would be playing outside of his usual position at centre. Mark Nawaqanitawase was a bolter for a Blues jumper entering the year and while he has produced plenty of highlights to start the season, some poor defensive reads likely have him out of contention. Jacob Kiraz has been in and around selection for a number of years now and would offer similar, tackle-busting upside to To’o and put his hand up for the kind of carries that can start a set off well. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak is newly eligible for selection and coming off a big game for the Warriors, but if Daley was to blood a debutant it seems Kiraz is the likelier option. We’re going to go with in-form Panthers winger Tom Jenkins though, capping off an incredible rise for the Boorowa product who was on just a $85,000 development contract in February last year. This may be slightly contentious as there seems to be this external perception that Jenkins is just falling over the line and more of a product of Penrith’s system. But that downplays just how much he has improved his game, and unlike To’o he would present the Blues with a genuine aerial weapon in a similar sense to what Lomax offered. The numbers also speak to the fact Jenkins has done much more than just score tries this year, with 34 tackle busts (fifth-most in the NRL at any position), 12 linebreaks (most) and 178.4 run metres per game (most). Then there is that Penrith connection, which is particularly important given who we have lining up in the centres.

Verdict: Brian To’o (PEN), Tom Jenkins (PEN)

CENTRE

Incumbents: Stephen Crichton and Latrell Mitchell

Contenders: Crichton, Mitchell, Casey McLean, Tom Trbojevic, Campbell Graham, Kotoni Staggs, Bradman Best

Analysis: It is looking increasingly likely that Stephen Crichton will be unavailable because of injury, which leaves one spot up for grabs with Latrell Mitchell taking the other. Bradman Best is still in the running, although his groin injury won’t help his chances of pressing his claims to Daley. As mentioned above, Graham won’t let you down and is incredibly solid in defence which is important given that is Crichton’s biggest strength. Kotoni Staggs, meanwhile, is more of a high-upside pick if you are looking for even more power and X-factor out wide. Trbojevic, meanwhile, looks to have overcome his injury concerns after an impressive pre-season according to interim coach Kieran Foran. But we’re going to go with the 19-year-old bolter Casey McLean, who has significantly improved his defence and has even drawn comparisons to Crichton given his athletic frame and the way he has rapidly developed since his rookie year. It also makes sense to lean into the McLean-Jenkins combination given how lethal it has been for Penrith. That isn’t just because of all the tries they’re scoring. Sure, defence is also about communicating with your inside men and so there is no guarantee McLean and Jenkins will be perfect in Origin. But they have clearly developed a strong understanding of each other’s defensive tendencies, which will give them plenty of confidence embracing the challenge of Origin football.

Verdict: Casey McLean (PEN), Mitchell (SOU)

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FIVE-EIGHTH

Incumbent: Jarome Luai

Contenders: Luai, Mitchell Moses

Analysis: Moses was a big part of Daley’s plans last year before being ruled out from Game 2 onwards due to a calf strain, with Luai parachuted into the side after being axed at the start of the series. Luai has arguably been in better form to start the year in club land, although he suffered his own injury setback. But the Tigers five-eighth will still have plenty of time to convince Daley he deserves to keep his spot. However, given Moses was the man from Game 1 and didn’t get a chance to close out the series, look for Daley to go back to the Eels halfback as someone who complements Panthers halfback Nathan Cleary perfectly. He is a very different player to Luai, but having someone like Moses with his league-best, long-range kicking game also frees Cleary up to run more, which is his greatest strength. Both are experienced and selfless enough to step back and let the other run the show when it makes sense.

Verdict: Mitchell Moses (PAR)

HALFBACK

Incumbent: Nathan Cleary

Contenders: Mitchell Moses, Isaiya Katoa, Nicho Hynes

Analysis: Regardless of Cleary’s inconsistency in the Origin arena, this is a simple one. Cleary is in career-best form, leading the Dally M count and will get another chance to have his crowning moment in a Blues jumper.

Verdict: Nathan Cleary (PEN)

PROPS

Incumbents: Max King and Payne Haas