Arguably the biggest news from Tuesday’s trade deadline was the Vikings acquiring quarterback Kirk Cousins in a deal with the Raiders.
But while Cousins is no doubt an upgrade, his value to the spread is nowhere near what we’ve seen with other QBs this season. In fact, bookmakers are saying it’s only worth two points in NFL Week 10 odds.
“It’s not a drastic move. It’s not like we’re saying Cousins has value like a Patrick Mahomes or others,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said. “The move reflects the sentiment all season long that this Vikings offense is not that good.”
Cousins gets the chance to prove otherwise on a Sunday in which you can keep it locked on FOX all day. Vikings vs. Packers is at 1 p.m. ET, preceded by Patriots vs. Lions from Germany at 9:30 a.m. ET. Then it is 49ers vs. Cowboys in America’s Game of the Week at 4:25 p.m. ET.
More on those three matchups, along with two key prime-time showdowns and a sharp play, as we dive into NFL Week 10 betting nuggets.
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On Sunday evening, when Vikings-Packers opened on the NFL Week 10 oddsboard, Caesars Sports made Green Bay a 3-point home favorite.
Then came the Vikes’ dismal showing on offense in a 23-6 home loss to the Bills on Monday night. Carson Wentz threw two interceptions and lost a fumble.
That drove the Packers up to -4.5 late on Monday night, and the line went to -5.5 on Tuesday morning.
On Tuesday afternoon, Minnesota made the move to acquire Cousins, a couple of hours ahead of the 4 p.m. ET trade deadline. Caesars followed by dropping the Packers to -4.5 for about an hour, then to -3.5.
Two points. That’s what bookmakers — backed up by bettors’ reaction to the trade — arrived at on the value of Cousins over Wentz.
On Wednesday, the Pack dipped to -3 (-117), but there’s a good chance that this number goes to -3.5 again. Cousins isn’t changing bettors’ minds, with Green Bay running hot at 5-1 straight up (SU) and 6-0 against the spread (ATS) in its last six games.
For the season, the Packers are 6-3 SU and ATS, while the Vikings are 6-2 SU/4-4 ATS.
“The Packers are playing really good football lately,” Feazel said. “So the bettors are still on the Packers, and I don’t anticipate that changing, even with the Vikings’ upgrade at quarterback. And especially after what the favorites did last week.”
Indeed, favorites went 14-1 SU and 11-4 ATS, giving the public betting masses their biggest winning week of the NFL season.
The 49ers (7-1 SU/5-3 ATS) are just behind the favored Bills in Super Bowl odds. The Cowboys (4-5 SU/5-4 ATS) had higher expectations to this point of the season and could certainly use a signature win.
Caesars opened San Francisco -4.5, and interestingly, there’s been sharp action on both sides early. Respected money took Cowboys +4.5 and +4, moving the line to 49ers -3.5, which then drew sharp San Fran action to push Caesars back to -4, where the line remained Wednesday evening.
But the public’s vision is much more focused in this 4:25 p.m. ET start on FOX.
“It’s one-way traffic on the 49ers, and I expect that to continue,” Feazel said, while also noting a season-high total that’s toggled between 55.5 and 56 so far. “We’re gonna need the Under, and we’ll need the Cowboys to hang around against this very strong 49ers offense.”
Sunday begins with Patriots vs. Lions in Munich, Germany. Detroit (6-2 SU/3-4-1 ATS) is on a four-game win streak, covering in three of those games, while New England (5-4 SU/4-5 ATS) has failed to cover in its last four games.
The 9:30 a.m. ET/6:30 a.m. PT kickoff won’t necessarily slow down bettors.
“This is usually one of the biggest-bet games on Sunday, because it’s a standalone spot,” Feazel said. “So far, it’s been one-way traffic on the Lions, and I expect that to remain. They’re betting favorite and Over in this one.”
The total is up a tick from 50.5 to 51, with sharp action on Over 50.5. The public will surely weigh in on the Over as kickoff draws closer.
On Sunday night, the Bengals (6-2 SU/4-3-1 ATS) host the AFC North rival Steelers (6-2 SU and ATS). Both teams are solid of late, with Cincinnati on an upswing of 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS, and Pittsburgh 4-0 SU and ATS in its last four games.
Caesars opened the Bengals -3.5, with no movement as of Wednesday evening.
“Right now, it’s a little more two-way action on the spread, and bettors are especially taking the Steelers on the moneyline,” Feazel said, noting action backing a Pittsburgh road upset. “But I anticipate that will change as we get closer to Sunday.
“The Bengals are a public team with an offense putting up a lot of points. It’ll be Bengals and Over action going into Sunday night.”
Kickoff is at 8:20 p.m. ET.
Professional bettor Randy McKay is already involved with the Steelers-Bengals showdown. McKay likes the Steelers to cover as 3.5-point road underdogs.
“Pittsburgh has a double-rest advantage, with Cincy playing last week in Madrid, while the Steelers were on a bye,” McKay said. “Earlier this season, Pittsburgh won 30-27 at home. I expect this to be a close game, too.
“But Pittsburgh’s run offense will control the clock and keep Joe Burrow & Co. on the sideline.”
Among the bigger surprises at the season’s midway point: The New York Giants leading the NFC East at 5-2-1 SU, while going a money-making 6-2 ATS.
That’s despite losing QB Jaxson Dart in Week 2, taking a ride on the Jameis Winston Experience for a few weeks, then starting J.J. McCarthy beginning in Week 7. The Giants acquired McCarthy in a Sept. 28 trade with the Vikings.
Up next for the Giants is an 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday kickoff against the Commanders (2-5-1 SU/4-4 ATS). These two teams already met in Week 5, playing to a 27-27 tie, with New York covering as a 3.5-point road underdog.
This time around, Caesars opened the Giants as 1.5-point favorites and on Monday afternoon moved to -2.5, where the line remained Wednesday evening.
“Bettors are actually believing in this Giants team. We’re taking a lot of Giants action in this one,” Feazel said. “I don’t think New York has beaten a team with a winning record.”
That’s correct, with four wins coming against sub-.500 outfits, and the fifth coming against the Cowboys in the season opener. But the Commanders aren’t a winning team either, far from it.
“It’s all Giants action, and little more Under action right now,” Feazel said.
The total saw significant movement from Sunday to Tuesday, opening at 44.5 and falling to 41.