The first full weekend of college football brought one of the most controversial finishes in Big Ten history when Michigan completed a game-winning Hail Mary after one second was put back on the clock.
Days later, the SEC yanked the spotlight from its rival with an unprecedented display of brinksmanship that would have once seemed beyond unimaginable.
The conference filed court documents Tuesday indicating its presidents and chancellors will decide this week whether to expel LSU from the conference.
We’ll repeat that in case it didn’t register: The SEC is seriously considering expelling LSU, a founding member of the conference, a four-time national champion and one of the bluest of blue bloods.
The momentous meeting is scheduled for Thursday.
Expulsion requires 11 votes.
At least that many presidents are incensed by LSU’s rogue behavior, particularly with regard to coach Lane Kiffin’s plans to roster former NFL players and the utter lack of oversight from president Wade Rousse.
Obviously, expulsion would be a tectonic development for the sport. Not since the Big East booted Temple for its woeful football program a quarter century ago has a school been booted from its conference. And Temple is not LSU. It’s not even a tiny fraction of LSU.
Through all the ghastly scandals of recent decades, from the academic fraud at North Carolina to the sexual assault cases at Baylor and Penn State, no school has been expelled.
LSU’s ouster could spark another wave of realignment or propel the sport closer to a super league.
Let’s dive into the most likely course of action, the possible repercussions and what might happen if the SEC moves ahead with the unthinkable:
— At the time the presidents scheduled their meeting, the likelihood of expelling LSU was slim — probably less than 20 percent. But it was real enough that the Tigers backed down Tuesday night by adding two players to their roster to reach the limit of 105.
That means there are no spots left for the two former NFL players, Dae’Quan Wright and Zxavian Harris, at the center of the school’s inflammatory behavior.
With the threat of LSU adding pros removed, the chance of an expulsion vote is less than 5 percent, but that doesn’t mean the SEC presidents won’t issue a warning or reprimand.
They might move to put LSU on probation, and there would be nothing double-secret about it.
— The extraordinary steps taken by SEC presidents to this point underscore the stakes. This is about much more than LSU rostering former NFL players. It’s also about the SEC enforcing conference rules.
Why? Because the Protect College Sports Act, which is designed to clean up the industry, is facing a steep climb through Congress.
If it fails, the SEC and Big Ten — deeply frustrated with the NCAA’s inability to enforce rules — are preparing for Plan B: self-governance.
They would essentially toss the NCAA manual to the side and establish their own policies for roster compensation, transfer portal windows, tampering, eligibility, etc.
The commissioners have said as much.
Asked in July at SEC football media days if the “breakaway” conversations were real, Greg Sankey said: “They’re real. People have talked about that. They have opined about the frustrations that bring them to the point of saying we should look at something significantly different.”
One week later, Tony Petitti addressed the topic at the Big Ten’s football event: “If the bill can’t address some of the changes we need to make … the first place you go is with our colleagues in the other conferences and the NCAA. How do we come together to make the necessary changes so we can give our athletic directors, coaches and student athletes a system that seems to be more sustainable?”
Before taking the final step to self-governance, the SEC (and Big Ten) must be sure they can police themselves. Successfully forcing LSU to back down from rostering NFL players would offer proof of concept.
Essentially, there are two games being played this week: Discipline LSU in the present, establish authority for the future.
And yes, if the SEC and Big Ten break away from the NCAA governance structure, the ACC and Big 12 might follow.
— What if the unthinkable becomes reality this week, or in the near future, and the SEC boots the Tigers?
How would that impact college sports?
First, know this: Unlike the Big Ten, ACC and Big 12, the SEC does not have a grant-of-rights agreement among its members that binds their media rights to the conference.
Why not? As one source told us years ago: “They don’t need it. Nobody ever leaves the SEC.”
So the Tigers, banished from their home of 90-something years, would take their massive media value with them while the SEC’s annual revenue payments from ESPN would be reduced by some unknown but not insignificant amount.
The SEC could look to add one school, or perhaps more, and would have plenty of options. Our hunch: North Carolina would be first on the list, assuming Notre Dame isn’t interested.
Or the conference could plow forward with 15 members and work through the logistical hurdles presented by an odd number of schools.
Where would the Tigers land?
In our view, the Big Ten would want nothing to do with them. The conference certainly doesn’t need the Tigers. Competitively and financially, it’s thriving. And LSU is a poor fit institutionally. Why bother with the inevitable migraines that Kiffin and Co. would cause?
For many of the same reasons, LSU is a poor fit in the ACC.
Meanwhile, Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark is on Line 1.
The Big 12 desperately needs a blue blood to raise its media valuation and competitive ceiling in advance of the next round of contract talks with Fox, ESPN and perhaps other networks.
But would LSU want to join the Big 12? That’s not as clear.
The school might find Door No. 2 enticing: Independence.
The Tigers could follow Notre Dame’s model. They possess the brand value needed to exist on their own and could sign a scheduling agreement with the Big 12 that mirrors what Notre Dame has with the ACC.
One of the major networks would be delighted to pay a hefty sum to broadcast seven games annually from Death Valley.
Naturally, Georgia, Alabama, Texas, USC, Ohio State, Michigan and others would monitor LSU’s progress.
What do you call 12 football Independents? The founding members of a super league.
We don’t expect that scenario to play out. Not this week and probably not this year. The Tigers could get slapped with a warning or probation, but expulsion seems highly unlikely.
That said, the meeting of SEC presidents Thursday is colossally important for the sport, both as a line in the self-governance sand and a signpost on the road to whatever comes next.
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The post SEC and LSU on the brink: The expulsion vote, an ulterior motive, Lane Kiffin’s next move and what the showdown means for everyone else first appeared on Sports360AZ.