One of the biggest expected hits of the fall season is nearly upon us — and it’s going to be even bigger than a lot of people realize. “The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping” will explore Haymitch Abernathy’s origin story, with Woody Harrelson having popularized the character in the original run of “Hunger Games” films. This time, Joseph Zada is playing the younger Haymitch, and it turns out folks are very eager to see how he ended up winning his games in his youth.
Once again directed by franchise shepherd Francis Lawrence, “Sunrise on the Reaping” is currently eyeing a monster box office opening between $105 and $140 million domestically when it arrives next weekend, per Box Office Theory. These estimates have climbed a lot in recent weeks, so I’m personally included to lean on the higher end of projections. Either way, it’s going to be a dramatic improvement for the property.
In 2023, “The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes” topped the box office, but Lionsgate wasn’t partying like it’s 2012. It opened to $44.6 million en route to $349 million worldwide. All of “The Hunger Games” movies have been hits at the box office, yet that prequel’s grosses were far behind the previous entries, which all opened north of $100 million and made at least $650 million worldwide. This latest prequel is, by all appearances, going to be more in line with those earlier entries.
“Sunrise on the Reaping” takes place more than two decades before the first-ever “Hunger Games” film/book and four decades after “The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes.” Its story is focused on the 50th annual Hunger Games, aka the Second Quarter Quell, in which Haymitch famously competed and won before mentoring Katniss Everdeen (Jennifer Lawrence) in the 74th Hunger Games.
Sunrise on the Reaping will bring The Hunger Games back to its former glory
Why is the latest “Hunger Games” prequel expected to perform so much better than its predecessor? For one, author Suzanne Collins’ source novel was incredibly well received, telling a story many have been curious about for a long time. For another, Jennifer Lawrence is reprising Katniss for “Sunrise on the Reaping,” with Josh Hutcherson and Woody Harrelson coming back as Peeta Mellark and the older Haymitch as well.
While these appearances should be fairly brief, getting the band back together absolutely helps make this more of an event for fans. Similarly, “The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes” was about the insidious President Snow’s origins, whereas casual audiences are probably more interested in learning about Haymich’s backstory. Lionsgate spent over/under $200 million to make “Sunrise on the Reaping,” which was risky in light of how “Songbirds and Snakes” performed, but it’s currently shaping up to be money well spent.
The last time the franchise saw a hit of this size was when 2015’s “The Hunger Games: Mockingjay — Part 2” opened to $102 million domestically en route to $653 million in theaters worldwide. If this film opens on the higher end of projections? It could be closer to “Catching Fire” ($158 million opening/$865 million worldwide). Either way, this is going to be the biggest opening of the fall season to date, by far.
Early reactions to “Sunrise on the Reaping” have been largely positive, which also bodes well. And while Thanksgiving will bring in big competition like “Focker In-Law” and Disney’s “Hexed,” it falls over one of the biggest moviegoing weeks of the year. As such, all these films should be able to co-exist.
“The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping” hits theaters on November 20, 2026.