Welcome to The Plays that Stood Out, where we take a deep dive into the moments that shaped the past week of NFL games and try to figure out what they could mean for the teams and players going forward.
This week, we’re looking at how Mike Evans’s injury derailed the 49ers offense in Atlanta, what’s driving Houston’s defensive woes, and how the Seahawks defense shut down Patrick Mahomes and Kenneth Walker.
49ers coach Kyle Shanahan has worked minor miracles, keeping the offense afloat while the injury bug tears through his receiver room. At a certain point, though, you just run out of bodies. That’s how it looked Sunday in San Francisco’s first game without Mike Evans, a 29-20 loss in Atlanta that knocked the Niners back to the pack in the NFC.
The absence was felt most on third down, where Evans has dominated San Francisco’s target share. Over the first six games, he moved the chains 11 times on third down; the rest of the team combined for 10. Against the Falcons, the 49ers had only two third-down receptions for first downs, both to George Kittle in the first quarter. On third down, Purdy finished 3-of-7 for 23 yards, a pick, and a passer rating of just 11.9.
Even with Shanahan limiting his snap count, Evans has been a North Star for the passing game this season, and Purdy looked lost without him. A couple of plays really stood out. Take this third-and-17 play from the second quarter. That’s not a situation where you’d expect the offense to convert, but the 49ers just needed a solid gain to get back into field goal range. San Francisco comes out in a trips set, with Brandin Cooks, Evans’s stand-in, isolated on the back side.
With the Falcons pushing their coverage to the three-receiver side, there’s a crease in the coverage that Cooks’ deep in-breaker can exploit, but Purdy never looks his way and takes a checkdown that gains only two yards.
Targeting Cooks would have been risky, but we’ve seen Purdy rip those deep in-breakers to Evans with blind faith throughout the first month and a half. If big No. 5 is running that route instead of Cooks, that ball is getting thrown.
This next play came on fourth-and-10 late in the game. It’s another trips set with Cooks isolated on the backside. This time, Atlanta crowds the line of scrimmage and shows blitz.
The Falcons sent a six-man pressure, but two defenders backed off into coverage, creating a 4-over-3 on the trips side. That left cornerback A.J. Terrell on an island with Cooks. If it’s Evans vs. Terrell, Purdy is taking that matchup every time. With Cooks out there, Purdy never even glances toward the single-receiver side and ends up taking a sack that snuffs out a potential Niners rally.
There’s still an opportunity to complete the crosser, but the pressure gets to Purdy; he drops his eyes and runs himself down a cul-de-sac of pass rushers.
This was the highest level of difficulty Purdy has faced all season. He came into the game with a league-low 71 dropbacks on plays with a pass probability greater than 75%, per Next Gen Stats. In Atlanta, he took 25 such dropbacks – and he did it without his star wideout.
The takeaway: Shanahan tried his best to feature the other 49ers stars who are healthy enough to play. Christian McCaffrey got touches on seven of his first eight snaps and ended up in the blue medical tent with a leg injury. Kittle was targeted a season-high 10 times, but he’s not the explosive play machine he once was, so those targets produced just 88 yards. Like Evans, McCaffrey and Kittle are older and have extensive injury histories, so Shanahan can’t just spam touches for them without increasing their injury risk.
Until the 49ers are fully healthy – or at least get Evans back on the field – Shanahan will have to maintain this delicate balance, and the offense will remain limited.
All right, I’ve seen enough of this Houston team to give up any hope of it making a deep postseason run. That hope rested mostly on the defense turning things around, reclaiming its title as one of the league’s best units, and pairing it with an offense that was just good enough to do its part in January.
After watching J.J. McCarthy and Cam Skattebo put up career days on Demeco Ryans’ defense, I’m selling all of my stock.
I think general manager Nick Caserio summed up the defensive issues best on Monday morning.
If you watched the final two overtime plays – Skattebo’s 42-yard stroll through the Texans’ front and Devin Singletary’s 30-yard game-winner – you wouldn’t need Caserio to tell you Houston has a tackling problem, especially in the secondary. On both plays, safety Calen Bullock was one-on-one with the ball carrier.
On Skattebo’s run, he took a bad angle, allowing the plodding back to get past him.
Against Singletary, a quick stutter step left him grasping for air.
The Texans secondary combined for 10 missed tackles against the Giants, bringing their season total up to 43. Only Denver’s secondary has whiffed on more tackles this season, per Pro Football Focus. The safeties, Bullock and Reed Blankenship, have been the main culprits, with seven and eight missed tackles, respectively, but the whole unit has played a role. Cornerback Kamari Lassiter has missed six tackles, nickelback Jalen Pitre has missed five, and Derek Stingley and M.J. Stewart have missed four apiece.
Football is a beautifully complex sport, but sometimes the results are easy to explain. Houston’s defense has regressed because the secondary isn’t winning its one-on-one battles.
The takeaway: It’s not just the tackling, either. Texans defensive backs have been getting dunked on at the catch point all season. Only the Jaguars have given up more yards on tight-window throws and only three teams have surrendered more expected points added, per Next Gen Stats. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging 8.1 yards per attempt on those contested throws. Last season, that number was a league-leading 2.0 yards per attempt. That’s a remarkable difference. Issues at the catch point and poor tackling in the secondary have spiked opponents’ explosive play rate, which is driving the defensive regression.
Ryans said Monday that he believes in Houston’s scheme, and I’m inclined to agree. The players are in position to make stops; they just haven’t. Until this highly paid secondary starts playing up to its price tag, I’m fading the Texans.
If you forgot – or were distracted by the turbulent offense – Sunday’s comprehensive beatdown of the Chiefs was a reminder that Seattle is still home to the NFL’s best defense. The statistical nuggets coming out of the game are astonishing.
Kansas City couldn’t create any explosive plays.
It couldn’t produce in general.
Just gaining a first down felt like a chore.
The Seahawks didn’t just make Patrick Mahomes look mortal. They did it while also neutralizing Kenneth Walker, who came into the game leading the world in just about every meaningful run metric. The star running back managed just 36 yards on 14 carries. It was the first time he was held without an explosive run and the first time he was held to a success rate lower than 40%, per Next Gen Stats.
And Seattle did it without loading the box with run defenders. Seahawks coach/defensive play-caller Mike MacDonald could keep calling his two-high safety looks and enjoy a numbers advantage in the passing game. Pick pretty much any of Mahomes’ 33 passes and pause when he hits the back of his drop. And almost every time, you’ll see Seattle with a plus-one advantage in coverage on both sides of the field.
Mahomes’ interception came on a play where the Seahawks are caught in a run blitz against play-action. That’s typically an advantage for the offense, but Seattle gets four defenders over three receivers to the playside while Mahomes is chased by Nick Emmanwori and his 4.3 speed.
Seattle can play like that against the pass because they can do this against the run. Here, Kansas City comes out with three tight ends, and only one receiver split wide. The Seahawks match it with their nickel defense and keep both safeties deep, leaving a run gap open.
But Seattle closes them with a strong scheme and even better talent. Derrick Hall and Leonard Williams cave in the strong side, creating a wall that boxes Walker in. Jarran Reed occupies a double team, and DeMarcus Lawrence wins inside and closes off the cutback lane. Both Seahawks linebackers remain unblocked, allowing them to fill any open gaps.
Seattle’s defensive alignment made it hard for Kansas City’s blockers to build double teams, and the defensive talent on the line made it hard to win those matchups, leaving Walker nowhere to go. That’s how you overcome a disadvantage in the box. This snapshot of the Next Gen Stats tracking dots clearly illustrates how the Seahawks’ run defense functions. You can see the vertical penetration to the play side, with the backside defenders working horizontally to prevent cutback lanes from forming.
The takeaway: It’s like MacDonald is playing a rigged game of rock-paper-scissors, where scissors don’t beat paper, so they can throw it with impunity. In this case, paper is their two-high coverages. Seattle can stay in their shell coverages without worrying about getting gashed on the ground. And it’s not like the Seahawks are just surviving against the run. They own the league’s dominant run defenses, which makes the suffocating coverage possible.
1. Packers defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon has tormented opposing offenses with his exotic blitzes on third down, so credit to the Lions coaching staff for having an answer on Sunday. Sometimes, the solution to a complex schematic problem is as simple as putting the ball in your best player’s hands. For Detroit, that’s Jahmyr Gibbs, who moved the chains on two key third-down runs, with both coming on the same run play against the same pressure look from Green Bay.
The first one came on third-and-5 on the opening drive. With the Packers showing blitz, Detroit ran a crack toss with Amon-Ra St. Brown motioning across the formation and the play-side offensive tackle pulling outside, leading the way for Gibbs on third-and-5.
That extended the Lions’ first of two touchdown drives on Sunday. The second play essentially iced the game for Detroit. Facing third-and-7 and a similar pressure look from Green Bay, the Lions tossed it to Gibbs with St. Brown and Penei Sewell clearing out a path to a first down.
Gibbs wisely went down, letting Detroit bleed the clock before a chip-shot field goal to win.
2. The Rams will likely be in the market for another receiver with Davante Adams out for a couple of months, but Sean McVay has to be happy with the blocking effort he got out of his receiving corps on Sunday in the 35-21 win over Las Vegas. Konata Mumpfield’s effort on Kyren Williams’ 17-yard touchdown run really stood out.
Mumpfield wards off a cornerback just long enough before landing the key block on the safety, creating a downfield seal all on his own.
Los Angeles went back to basics on Sunday, running multi-tight-end sets and mashing the Raiders on the ground. That ground-and-pound strategy only works if you’re getting explosive runs, and those are much easier to come by when receivers are willing to block.
3. It’s been a month since I begged the NFL teams to run more lateral plays, and it appears they’re listening.
Per Pro Football Focus, offenses have run seven since Week 3, including three in Week 7, and the success rate remains encouraging. Four of those seven plays – all on third- or fourth-and-10-plus – have gone for first downs.
As these designed laterals continue to dig offenses out of deep situational holes, I expect to see even more. The NFL never fails to live up to its reputation as a copycat league.