We’re only three weeks into the new NBA season (or roughly 10 per cent). Let’s make some unnecessarily early takeaways from what we’ve seen so far.
Below we’ve dived into some bold predictions, hot takes and general overreactions for the marathon 82-game season ahead. So yes, it’s early days, but …
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WEMBY CLAIMS FIRST MVP, SPURS WIN CHIP
Victor Wembanyama might actually be from another planet.
The French phenom has been on a tear and a force on both ends of the floor to start the new season.
He’s averaged career-highs across the board in points (29 per game), rebounds (12.4) and blocks (NBA-high 4.5) to lead Sam Antonio to a 6-2 start.
It included a ridiculous masterclass against Dallas this week with a career-best 52 points and 24 rebounds to go with eight blocks.
It’s Wemby’s league now … and might be for some time. The 22-year old is the frontrunner for MVP and short-priced favourite for Defensive Player of the year
The MVP is his for the taking given it’s typically an award that goes to the best player for one of the best teams and the Spurs are projected to have the best record in the regular season.
Luka Doncic is building a case. Shai Gilgous-Alexander could, too, if he can drag this undermanned Thunder team to another big season. And you can never rule out Nikola Jokic.
But Wembanyama’s team stands to be the best and he’s just something else.
He’s the main reason why the Spurs are in the box seat for the NBA champion as they look to avenge last season’s Finals loss to New York.
Particularly with the Thunder injury cruelled as their biggest threat to reach the championship series.
The addition of Tobias Harris, a second-year leap from Dylan Harper and no other major departures from last season’s team has this group primed.
Even if the three-guard starting line-up is kind of funky and something they need to work through.
Doncic scores 42 in Lakers win | 00:59
LUKA TO AVERAGE MOST POINTS SINCE WILT IN 1961
Luka Doncic goes alright, too.
The Lakers superstar is in his absolute apex in a scorching hot start to the season. If the MVP was given out today, he’d probably get it.
Doncic has averaged 38.5 points per game on just under 50 per cent shooting from the field, 43 per cent from three and 89 per cent from the line to go with eight rebounds, eight assists and 1.8 steals.
The Slovenian maestro’s usage is absolutely through the roof including 13.6 attempts from 3-point range and the extreme efficiency has him on track for a historically good offensive season.
It feels like he could drop 50 points on any given night and looks poised to surpass his career-high of 73. Wilt Chamberlain’s 100-point record might even be in reach, and if not, Bam Adebayo’s 83 points from last season that sits second all time.
Keep up this pace and Doncic will average the most points per game since Wilt Chamberlain (44.8) in 1963, which would rank third all-time in NBA history.
Even if Doncic drops off slightly to say 37 points per game, he’d have the highest scoring season since Chamberlain in 1961 (38.4) and be the first player to average 37 points since Michael Joran.
Yes, even more than Kobe Bryant’s highest-scoring season when he averaged 35.4 points in 2005/06.
Injuries might be the only thing that can stand in Doncic’s way at this point.
Unlike Chamberlain and Jordan, who played 40-plus minutes per game in their historic scoring seasons, Doncic is doing it 35 minutes. Granted, it highlights the increase of scoring in the modern NBA climate and influence of the 3-point era.
Doncic inspires Lakers to victory | 01:24
INJURIES HAVE RUINED OKC
The Thunder have reached a tipping point.
After going into the season on a championship revenge tour and looking as scary as ever before, injuries have left them and their title hopes in tatters.
Losing Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace to likely season-ending injuries in the second week of the season was bad enough.
Now, Chet Holmgren is set to miss up to 10 weeks due to a patellar tendon tear in his right knee.
The trio of savage blows is exasperated by OKC losing valuable depth in the off-season with the departures of championship trio Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe.
Even if the Thunder has steadied with consecutive wins thanks to monster 40-plus point outings from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the likes of Ajay Mitchell, Jaylin Williams and Aday Mara can help fill roles, it’s not the same OKC machine that won over 64 games the last two seasons.
Perhaps a trade could save them and they’ll great Holmgren back eventually, but the margin for error is so small and it just doesn’t feel like there season. That’s how delicate and cruel sport can be.
Even if they’ve been hit the hardest, the Thunder aren’t alone in an injury epidemic that’s massacred the NBA in the early weeks of the season.
The likes of Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Haliburton, Kawhi Leonard, Jaren Jackson, Jalen Duren, Paolo Banchero, Jalen Suggs and Ja Morant are also facing long stints on the sidelines in a brutal run to start the season.
Doncic stars as Lakers rally v Raptors | 02:17
SIXERS TO MAKE FINALS
The East is more competitive at the top than ever before.
But LeBron James and the Philadelphia 76ers have been the standout team so far as the frontrunner to come out of the conference with an NBA-best 8-1 record.
History would suggest they’re on pace to. Of James’ four other teams to start the season 8-1 — the 2011/12 Miami Heat, 2015/16 Cleveland Cavaliers and 2016/17 Cleveland Cavaliers — all three made the NBA Finals … and the first two won it all.
Philly has been 7-0 in clutch games this year and it’s ranked No. 2 in defensive rating but just No. 20 in offensive rating. The offence should improve, so there’s reason for upside, even if the defence comes down.
Tyrese Maxey is still the engine of this team. Yet Jaylen Brown has been a superb addition to take some offensive load of Maxey and Joel Embiid, who’s managed to stay healthy in the early parts of the season.
Meanwhile, James has been the perfect glue guy that can do a bit of everything. Which is probably the ideal role for a player about to turn 42.
Everything fits together about as well as they could’ve hoped. Crucially, the Sixers look happy and like they’re all on the same page.
Steph breaks Luka Doncic’s ankles! | 00:24
THIS EAST CONTENDER IS SIMPLY CURSED … AND IS NOW ON BLOW IT UP WATCH
Another team that had hopes to bounce back was the Orlando Magic. But it feels like there’s always something that goes wrong with this team.
There was optimism they could finally make a proper run at it with this group with a better run of injuries under new coach Sean Sweeney.
But some two weeks into the season, Paolo Banchero and Jalen Suggs are sidelined again and the Magic are struggling at 2-5.
They don’t really have the depth to cover their injuries and Franz Wagner hasn’t stepped up as the main guy like he’s shown he can before.
It feels like an important season for a team with the fourth-highest payroll that’s yet to even win a playoff series with this group and went all in the Desmond Bane trade a year ago.
If things continue as they are, you could see ownership and the front office getting itchy feet and exploring blowing this roster up.
You could see just about everyone being available for the right price including Banchero and Wagner, given this team just hasn’t worked.
It’s been because of player unavailability as much as anything. But typically the coach goes first, then the players.
Maxey inspires 76ers to victory | 01:36
SO ARE GIDDEY’S BULLS. EVEN HE MIGHTN’T BE SAFE
The Bulls have also taken a big step backwards on a nightmare 1-7 start to the season for Josh Giddey and company.
It came after a roster makeover in the off-season with the additions of Pick 4 draftee Caleb Wilson and veterans Normal Powell and Nic Claxton, who’s yet to suit up due to injury, under new coach Tiago Splitter.
But it’s been a mess on both ends of the floor, with Chicago the only team ranked bottom three in both offensive rating and defensive rating and thus the worst net rating and the worst point differential.
Wilson has been given the keys on offensive, yet as rookies typically are, the forward has been inefficient.
He and Powell have taken touches away from Giddey and Matas Buzelis, who’ve both had massive drops in production on a team lacking an identity.
It’s why the Bulls are another team that could look drastically different post the trade deadline. Powell would appeal to contending teams and perhaps it’s half why Chicago signed him in the first place, while even Giddey’s future with Chicago could be uncertain.
The offence moving away from Giddey might be a sign after Bryson Graham has stepped in as the Bulls’ new Executive Vice President of Basketball Operations in May to replace Artūras Karnišovas.
The team’s new front office isn’t the same one that traded for Giddey or signed him to an extension and they’ll be looking at this roster as a blank canvas.
Lakers beat Clippers without Doncic | 01:00
GRIZ TO TAKE OUT THREE MAJOR AWARDS AS BOOZER ROTY IN STAR-STUDDED CLASS
The Grizzlies are the feel-good story to start the NBA season. Though that might be disrespecting them.
Memphis is 6-0 — including a stunning 6-0 start — with a new-look team spearheaded by breakout star Ty Jerome and rookie stud Cameron Boozer.
We know how much team success impacts player awards, particularly teams that make big jumps.
So, Jerome and Boozer are primed to take out Most Improved Player of the Year and Rookie of the Year respectively if the Griz remain the real deal.
Throw in Tuomas Iisalo as Coach of the Year, too. Memphis is rated top five in both offensive and defensive rating and sits No. 4 in net rating with the third-best point differential.
Booker has serious competition though in one of the best rookie classes in some time.
Yaxel Lendeborg has been a revelation for Golden State to near single-handedly rejuvenate the Steph Curry era.
Darius Acuff Jr. is taking a million shots but is still averaging 25.6 points per game and seven assists.
Caleb Wilson and AJ Dybantsa have shown plenty of chops, too, while Jazz fans will hope Darryn Peterson improves as the season goes.
Miami poor start continues: NBA Wrap | 02:26
WARRIORS PRIMED TO ADD ANOTHER STAR
As mentioned, Yaxel Lendeborg, has been a legitimate floor and ceiling raiser for a Warriors team that went into the season with real question marks and started 0-3.
Jimmy Butler is out for half the season due as he rehabs an ACL injury and Kristaps Porzingis’ health concerns have been disastrous after he signed a two-year, $40 million contract in the off-season and now likely won’t play for the team again.
Between Butler, Porzingis and Moses Moody, who’s sidelined with a serious knee injury, that’s nearly $90 million in dead cap space, plus Steph Curry has had chronic problems with his right knee and is 38 years old.
Yet Steve Kerr’s side has won five on the bounce — including wins over Denver, Minnesota and the Lakers — and looks completely rejuvenated.
To the point where the Warriors look set to be trade buyers to load up for another run with Curry, who’s looked like prime Curry in a scintillating start to the season alongside new co-star Lendeborg.
Anthony Davis? Domantas Sabonis? Michael Porter Jr? Don’t rule out a big swing.
NBA Wrap: Doncic dumps 52 on Utah! | 02:24
TRADE, DRAFT CALL THAT’S SPECTACULARLY BACKFIRED
This is the definition of an over-reaction. But the early returns aren’t great for Utah with trade acquisition Jaren Jackson Jr. and Pick 2 draftee Darryn Peterson, when it could’ve had Walker Kessler and Cameron Boozer.
The Jazz effectively opted for Jackson over Kessler, who they traded to the Lakers and has enjoyed a strong start to the season in pick and roll heaven with Luka Doncic.
Jackson is set to miss up to eight weeks with an MCL injury and his body has at times broken door across his career.
Granted, so has Kessler’s, but a frontcourt of Kessler and Boozer to pair with Lauri Markkanen, Ace Bailey and Keyonte George would’ve been some core.
Utah took Peterson one spot ahead of Boozer, and while Peterson is in a tougher spot to star alongside George and Markkanen, the No. 2 pick hasn’t looked nearly as good.
Again, it’s the earliest of early days in their careers. But Jazz fans might struggle to watch Memphis years in the years ahead and the son of one of their own champions.
CLEAR WORST TEAM … BUT OTHERS STILL HAVE SOME INCENTIVE TO TANK
OK, so the Bulls might have the worst net rating and point differential. But the Kings are a bigger disaster and look set to have the worst record in the league.
Perhaps even less than their 22 wins from last season. The 1-7 Kings were the last winless team and look set for another long season. Those ‘Light the Beam’ days feel like a lifetime ago now.
A rookie point guard getting full reign to run an offence, miss shots and make mistakes is always fraught with danger, even if Darius Acuff Jr. has impressed.
Veteran guard Zach LaVine is still in a prolific role with the likes of Keegan Murray and Nique Clifford failing to level up. And beyond Domantas Sabonis, who could get traded, there’s not much to get excited about and Doug Christie might be on the hot seat soon, if he isn’t already.
The Kings should be the worst team … even though the league’s new anti-tanking rules mean other teams have more incentive to tank.
The teams with the bottom three records will be in the ‘relegation zone’ and have worse lottery odds than teams that finish fourth through 10th.
So, teams want to avoid completely bottoming out. However, the likes of Brooklyn, Milwaukee, Phoenix and the Clippers don’t own or have full control of their first-round picks. If they remain down the standings, they might prefer to be bad to try and improve the chances of not sending a premium pick to another team.
It’s going to make for a fascinating draft lottery …