Two weeks into the 2026 NRL season and some themes are starting to emerge, so this is the perfect time to separate fact from fixtion.
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After back-to-back losses Broncos are looking like they might struggle to make the top four, while Todd Payten and Anthony Seibold are under pressure already.
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Meanwhile, the grand final match up is looking clearer by the day.
Read on for some bold predictions that are either an over-reaction, not an over-reaction or reality.
MAKASINI WILL WIN ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
Even before they played a minute this season, Tigers’ teenage sensation Heamasi Makasini announced himself as the favourite for the rookie of the year gong with some stunning trial form. There’s plenty to discuss when it comes to the Tigers after their 44-16 first up win over the Cowboys, however one of the bigger pre-season stories out of Concord has been the play of Makasini. The teen freak, who chose the Tigers over big-money offers from the 15-man code, was simply awesome in the trials, including scoring four tries, one of which would have made the great Jonah Lomu proud. That earnt him a shock call-up to the centres for Round 1 with Starford To’a sidelined, and while he didn’t score he handled the assignment with ease. If he stays healthy and moves back to the wing he should score plenty of tries and with an injury to Taylan May it’s hard to see him lose his spot in first grade and if that’s the case, we think he’ll be unbackable odds to win best rookie in 2026.
Verdict – Reality
THE BRONCOS WILL MISS THE TOP FOUR
The reigning premiers have shocked the competition, starting their 2026 season 0-2. Despite maintaining the bulk of their 2025 roster, the Broncos appear to be lacking their drive from last season. Brisbane let in 66 points across the first two weeks of the season, including a 26-0 thrashing from the Panthers and a 40-32 loss to the Eels after they were leading 20-6. The Broncos relied heavily on their attack, but struggled on the left side and in defence with both Ezra Mam and Reece Walsh showing lapses in concentration. The side is not helped by an injury concern to halfback Adam Reynolds, who is touch and go to play in this weekend’s Grand Final rematch against the Storm, after suffering rib cartilage damage in Thursday’s game.
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Despite a dominant 2025 season, the Broncos have quickly been thrown into new territory, starting the year with a loss to English champions Hull KR in the World Club Challenge as concerns grew around Michael Maguire’s coaching style. With the Panthers and Storm emerging as early premiership threats, Brisbane will need something to change for any hope at going back-to-back. For now, even their place in the top four looks unlikely.
Verdict– Not an over-reaction
BULLDOGS HAVE TO MOVE BURTON BACK TO CENTRE
Cameron Ciraldo can continue to dig in his heels and play Matt Burton and Lachlan Galvin in the halves or he can bow to public pressure and unlock both players in their true positions. Burton has starred at centre for NSW and Australia and won a premiership and Dally M centre of the year in the position, and while he has shown promise as a five-eighth he hasn’t been able to find consistency in the No.6. Meanwhile, Galvin is a five-eighth and playing him out of position at halfback is only taking away from what he does best as a running No.6 that can pop up when he sees opportunities, while his long kicking game is lacking as a chief playmaker. An unconvincing win over the Dragons in Round 1 and the fact that have dropped one of their centres Bronson Xerri for Enari Tuala, will only intensify pressure to move Burton to centre, Galvin to No.6 and bring in Sean O’Sullivan at No.7 until Mitchell Woods is ready. The Bulldogs can rely on their defence to get back to the top four, but if they want to contend for the title, they need more in attack.
Verdict– Reality
Ponga: ‘At least we scored!’ | 07:14
SHARKS WILL BE REGULAR CONTENDERS FOR FINALS BUT PRETENDERS
The Sharks have proven continuously they are finals material, yet their big players have struggled to nail the clutch moments that would announce themselves as genuine premiership contenders. Despite consistently maintaining a position in around the top of the ladder, Cronulla often fail to compete against the elite teams, shown once again in their 26-6 loss to Penrith in Round 2. That came after a clinical performance against the Titans in Round 1, with the Sharks only managed one try against Penrith and looking exhausted at the game’s end. Cronulla has been in premiership contention every year since 2022, including back-to-back preliminary final appearances in 2024 and 2025, but have failed to make a Grand Final since their maiden premiership title in 2016. The Sharks face the Dolphins this weekend, with a victory there sure to boost their confidence, although the side needs to overcome their inability to defeat teams above them, with consistent losses teams like Melbourne, Penrith and Brisbane standing in their way of a chance at the title.
Verdict– Not an over-reaction
Huge blow for Knights: Ponga & Brown out | 01:49
THE KNIGHTS WON’T MAKE THE FINALS
They Knights may have won their first two games of the season, but they also did that in 2025 and went on to win the wooden spoon. And the reality is without their two highest paid players after injuries to Kalyn Ponga and Dylan Brown against Manly, the Knights will struggle to win until they return. Ponga looks set to be sidelined for eight weeks with a hamstring injury, while Brown will miss the next month with a knee injury. And while Sandon Smith and Tyson Frizell can do a job in the halves, while they are out, Ponga will be hard to replace in the No.1. The fact the Knights pay $2.7 million a year for Ponga and Brown means that their salary cap is out of balance and they can’t afford to have their two best players out, given they are thin elsewhere in their roster. The Knights have a team to be competitive in the first half of the season, but the 27 round competition is a hectic beast and Newcastle have shown in the past they run out of puff late in the year, especially with injuries to their star players.
Verdict– Reality
WE ARE DESTINED FOR A PANTHERS VS STORM GRAND FINAL
Recent years have seen the NRL dominated by two teams. While last year’s Broncos victory saw a brief reprise, early results suggest another Penrith and Storm-controlled season is in order. Both the Panthers and the Storm have come out swinging in 2026, putting up two convincing wins over the first two rounds of the season. The Storm beat the Eels 52-4 to start their season, followed by a convincing 46-20 victory over the Dragons. Meanwhile, the Panthers put an incredible 26 points to nothing over the 2025 premiers, followed by a 26-6 victory over last year’s preliminary finalists in the Sharks. The Storm have quickly found themselves in a comfortable position atop the table, with the Panthers just behind them in third. They each have big games this weekend, with the Storm preparing for a grand final rematch against the Broncos, while Penrith face the Roosters. However, given early losses for both those sides, the Sharks and Panthers are each well positioned to take out another win, which will entrench them in the top four and based on early results they look a class above and will be tough to run down. Another Penrith-Melbourne title match would mark the third time in seven years the two teams have faced off for the premiership and at this stage it looks more likely than not.
Verdict – Reality
‘Room to improve’ Cleary sends warning | 05:54
TODD PAYTEN AND ANTHONY SEIBOLD WON’T MAKE IT TO MID-SEASON
Following scrutiny across the 2025 season, Manly’s Anthony Seibold and North Queensland’s Todd Payten have failed to silence doubters across the opening two rounds of the season. Manly have begun the season winless following a golden point loss to the Raiders, before a humiliating 36-16 loss to the Knights on Sunday. Seibold’s side let in 36 points to a depleted Knights side, who lost both Dylan Brown and Kalyn Ponga to injuries during the game. The loss doesn’t help Seibold’s case given he was already in hot water following a disappointing 2025 season, which saw the side go from top-four contenders to tenth place finishers. Seibold isn’t the only coach under the hot seat, with Todd Payten continuing to hang on by a thread following the axing of three Cowboys assistant coaches in 2025. After missing the finals last season, North Queensland would have been hoping to start strong, however two easy defeats does not bode well for their finals hopes or Payten’s future with the club. Payten’s spot looks particularly precarious following a 44-16 loss to the Tigers, which could see the coach make an early exit, before finishing out his sixth season at the helm. If the Cowboys are unable to seal a win against the Titans this weekend, they will be in serious danger, especially as they are set to face Melbourne the following week. The big test for both coaches will come in round seven when the Cowboys and Manly face, in what could be a battle for their jobs.
Verdict– Not an over-reaction
“Pressure, we gotta deal with it Better” | 04:06
MITCHELL MOSES CAN’T SAVE THE EELS ON HIS OWN
Mitchell Moses showed last season that he can carry a huge load at the Eels, but if the club want to return to the finals, he needs more support from his forwards. Moses and new halves partner Jonah Pezet had plenty of hype around them heading into the season, but they were thrashed 52-4 by the Storm in a huge reality check. The pair had one linebreak assist between them and the Eels will need much more from their key playmakers if they want to play finals. However, the Eels’ pack missed 25 tackles against the Storm and only one forward Kitione Kautoga ran for over 100 metres. In Round 2, they bounced back to stun the Broncos 40-32 on the back of a starring display from Kelma Tuilagi and Sam Tuivaiti was also strong off the bench, but Brisbane were also really poor. Luckily, Pezet announced himself as a key man to take pressure off Moses with four try assists and a try. But unless the Eels’ pack can lift their game and set a better platform up front more consistently, Moses can’t be expected to lead the side to the finals on his own.
Verdict – Reality
LATRELL WILL WIN TOP POINT-SCORER AND TOP TRY-SCORER
Latrell Mitchell hasn’t topped the point scorer’s list since he was at the Roosters, but he can do the point-scorer and try-scorer double in 2026, especially if he plays like he did against the Dolphins. On the back of a lethal Rabbitohs backline, Mitchell should score plenty of tries this season and if he kicks his goals as he did against the Dolphins, he will take some beating in the point-scorer race. Mitchell had two tries and six goals in a 20-point haul against the Dolphins, which was half his side’s points in the 40-30 win. However, Mitchell had an off-night in the loss to the Roosters and only kicked three goals, while he dropped a couple cold with Souths on attack. With Cody Walker and David Fifita inside him, Mitchell has the potential to score over 20 tries this season and if Souths continue to win games he will be crossing the stripe on plenty of occasions if he stays fit. But the challenge will be to kick his goals, avoid injury and suspensions and keep scoring if he wants to seal a rare double.
Verdict – Over-reaction
ROOSTERS ARE REPEATING OLD MISTAKES WITH DCE
On his first performance Daly Cherry-Evans showed he might be a bad investment from the Roosters, but after his second in a win over the Rabbitohs he showed just why the Chooks bought him. The challenge for Cherry-Evans is to find consistency, especially with his defence after he missed another five tackles against Souths on the edge. A year after paying Chad Townsend to play halfback for the team, the Roosters have gambled on another ageing playmaker and it could blow up in their faces. Cherry-Evans still has the skills and kicking game to be a top playmaker in attack, but pairing him with Sam Walker has made the Roosters vulnerable in defence on both edges. The Warriors and the Rabbitohs ran plenty of traffic at Walker and DCE, who missed 14 tackles between them in the first two rounds, and if they continue to struggle defensively it won’t matter how well they do in attack. Cherry-Evans will be nearly 38 by the end of this season and if he and the Roosters continue to be inconsistent, they could miss the top four and that will make it virtually impossible to win the title as history has shown.
Verdict – Over-reaction
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