As much as we’d love a truly balanced AFL fixture, it’s just not practical – playing everyone once is too few games, and playing everyone twice is way too many.
So instead the league attempts to equalise the competition by putting its finger on the scale when it creates the yearly draw.
AFL FIXTURE REVEALED: New Sunday night slot, prime time winners and blockbuster clashes
Fox Footy’s experts analyse the 2027 AFL draw in a FIXTURE ON FOX special! Watch on Fox Footy and stream via Kayo from 5pm AEDT | Get Kayo now >
WHAT’S GAMBLING REALLY COSTING YOU? Set a deposit limit. For Free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
With 18 teams playing 23 games across 24 weeks, all clubs must play six opponents twice, and these are their ‘double-up’ opponents. To determine these, the AFL breaks up the ladder into a trio of six-team groups (including finals results), and teams are drawn against group members more often.
You may think predicting the fixture is pointless, because we can’t perfectly predict how good teams will be next year, but history shows this analysis has a very strong track record.
Last year we predicted Geelong, Gold Coast and Collingwood to have three of the four hardest draws, and they did, contributing to all three sides declining from the year before.
We also said the Kangaroos had the easiest fixture, and that came true, with Alastair Clarkson’s side taking full advantage on route to a nine-win season (which included five wins over strugglers Essendon, Richmond and West Coast).
So which teams are primed to repeat the feat and capitalise on an easier fixture? And who could slide because theirs is that much harder?
Butters to face Port at Gather Round | 01:56
Foxfooty.com.au analyses every team’s double-ups, based on those opponents’ 2026 percentages (the better metric of team performance compared to pure win-loss record or ladder position), and reveals the winners and losers from the 2027 fixture.
2027 AFL FIXTURE BRACKETS (Based on 2026 ladder and finals)
Top six: Fremantle, Sydney, Brisbane, Hawthorn, Geelong, Adelaide
Middle six: Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, Carlton, St Kilda, GWS
Bottom six: Gold Coast, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, West Coast, Richmond, Essendon
EVERY TEAM’S 2027 DOUBLE-UP OPPONENTS
Adelaide Crows: Fremantle, Geelong, Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Richmond, Western Bulldogs
Brisbane Lions: Collingwood, Fremantle, Geelong, Gold Coast, St Kilda, Sydney
Carlton: Collingwood, Geelong, GWS Giants, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide
Collingwood: Brisbane, Carlton, Essendon, Fremantle, Richmond, St Kilda
Essendon: Collingwood, Geelong, GWS Giants, North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast
Fremantle: Adelaide, Brisbane, Collingwood, GWS Giants, Hawthorn, West Coast
Geelong: Adelaide, Brisbane, Carlton, Essendon, Hawthorn, St Kilda
Gold Coast: Brisbane, GWS Giants, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs
GWS Giants: Carlton, Essendon, Fremantle, Gold Coast, Sydney, Western Bulldogs
Hawthorn: Fremantle, Geelong, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, Sydney, Western Bulldogs
Melbourne: Adelaide, Carlton, Port Adelaide, Sydney Swans, West Coast, Western Bulldogs
North Melbourne: Carlton, Essendon, Gold Coast, Richmond, St Kilda, Sydney
Port Adelaide: Adelaide, Carlton, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, Melbourne, West Coast
Richmond: Adelaide, Collingwood, Essendon, North Melbourne, St Kilda, West Coast
St Kilda: Brisbane, Collingwood, Geelong, North Melbourne, Richmond, Western Bulldogs
Sydney: Brisbane, GWS Giants, Hawthorn, Melbourne, North Melbourne, West Coast
West Coast: Essendon, Fremantle, Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Richmond, Sydney
Western Bulldogs: Adelaide, Gold Coast, GWS Giants, Hawthorn, Melbourne, St Kilda
AFL 2027 FIXTURE DIFFICULTY (from hardest to easiest)
1 (Hardest). Brisbane Lions
2. Hawthorn
3. Western Bulldogs
4. Fremantle
5. GWS Giants
6. Geelong
7. Adelaide Crows
8. Gold Coast Suns
9. Port Adelaide
10. Carlton
11. Sydney Swans
12. Melbourne
13. West Coast Eagles
14. St Kilda
15. Collingwood
16. North Melbourne
17. Richmond
18 (Easiest). Essendon
WINNERS
Sydney Swans
There’s still plenty to play out off the field for the Swans after the Pullman Hotel saga. That is more important than footy, of course; but this is a footy article and we’ll focus on that aspect.
Despite finishing second on the ladder and hosting a preliminary final, Dean Cox’s side has been given the easiest draw of any of the eight teams that won a final in 2026.
The Swans face two top-six sides twice, Brisbane and Hawthorn, but they’ve also been given two games against the bottom six (West Coast and North Melbourne) plus two games against the middle six (GWS and Melbourne).
It may not be as easy as that makes it sound – Melbourne was in the top-four race until Round 24 last season, and North Melbourne (an obvious double-up opponent due to the Nick Blakey trade) is likely to improve – and while they rank 11th, they’re closer to having the seventh-hardest draw than the 13th-hardest.
Still, in simple terms, the Swans won 18 games last year and beat the eventual premiers in September. They probably deserved a harder run than this.
North Melbourne
Yep, again.
To be fair, the Kangaroos’ draw isn’t quite as easy as last year. But the average percentage of their double-up opponents is just 93.66%.
The only other teams below 98% are lowly Essendon and Richmond, who truly needed the help from the fixture gods.
They play just one top-six team twice, Sydney, which is obviously due to the Nick Blakey trade. That’s a pretty good pull because most will expect the Swans to be worse in 2027 – because of Blakey’s absence, and because of the fallout from the Pullman saga, and because of natural regression after a big leap in 2026.
The Kangaroos get four games against the two worst sides, Essendon and Richmond, and then have winnable double-ups against sides likely to be around the middle of the ladder with them – Carlton, Gold Coast and St Kilda.
It’s not ridiculous to suggest the Roos could win seven of their 10 double-up games, meaning they’d only need to pinch another six from their remaining 13 matches to play finals. That seems achievable.
Collingwood
The fourth-easiest draw, for a side that was a kick after the siren away from winning a final, sounds a little odd though we can explain it.
The Magpies do have to face the two Grand Finalists twice each, but to make up for it they also get double-ups against battlers Essendon and Richmond.
Getting those four games where you can almost pencil in the four points already is a major advantage.
Only three teams – West Coast, North Melbourne and Collingwood – get that benefit.
Dominoes to fall at Collingwood? | 07:39
LOSERS
Western Bulldogs
Luke Beveridge’s side copped an absolutely shocking draw last year, with their six double-up opponents all playing finals.
The AFL looked at that and said “yeah cool, whatever, you won a final, LET’S GO AGAIN”.
Despite finishing eighth the Bulldogs cop what shapes as 2027’s third-hardest draw including plenty of interstate trips, with double-ups against Adelaide, Gold Coast, GWS, Hawthorn, Melbourne and St Kilda.
When the Giants – who got much younger but still have plenty of top-end talent – are probably your easiest double-up opponent, you’re potentially in for a bad time.
Throw in the fact the Bulldogs and Brisbane (who are discussed below) are the only two teams to get true away games in Gather Round, rather than neutral clashes, and the chances of Beveridge finally taking the Bulldogs to the top four have taken a hit.
They may still be good enough with Sam Darcy coming back and Zak Butters coming in, of course.
Brisbane Lions
It’s entirely reasonable that the back-to-back-to-back premiers would have the toughest fixture, but it’s still worth nothing just how tricky 2027 could be as they push for a fourth flag in a row.
All six of the Lions’ double-up opponents are legit finals contenders, three of them at the very tippy top, with six games against Fremantle, Geelong and Sydney booked in.
Collingwood stocked up with Lachie Neale to keep contending, plus Gold Coast is almost certain to improve on whatever mess the second half of last season was, while St Kilda is trying to push up into the top 10 as well.
Maybe you aren’t convinced by the Suns or Saints but, at the very least, the Lions don’t have any easy double-up games. Their lone bottom six opponent, the Suns, finished 13th with a percentage in the mid-90s.
Compare that to the likely auto-wins given to the Dockers and Swans (who both get West Coast twice), the Cats (Essendon twice) and the Crows (Richmond twice).
GWS Giants
The Giants crept into the middle six despite a horrendous run of injuries and, in the process, have copped a tougher draw than they would’ve been given if they’d finished in the bottom six.
Despite finishing 12th they’ve copped double-ups against four teams who won a final in 2026 – Carlton, Fremantle, Sydney and the Bulldogs.
They also get two editions of the final Expansion Cup, against a likely-to-improve Gold Coast side, before we have to figure out Tasmania’s eligibility for the title in 2028.
The Giants also play Essendon twice, and we were gonna do a joke about that making everything better, but the Giants were one of the two teams who actually lost to Essendon in 2026 so we can’t even do that!