2027 Oscars Best Director Predictions

At the outset of 2026, I looked at the release schedule and mentally slotted Steven Spielberg, Ridley Scott, Alejandro González Iñárritu, and Pedro Almodóvar as major contenders for the Academy Award for Best Director. It’s now October, and only Almodóvar has the slimmest of chances at a nod for his tragicomedy “Bitter Christmas.” Meanwhile, Spielberg (“Disclosure Day”) and Scott (“The Dog Stars”) are completely out of the picture. As for Iñárritu, he’s facing a possible director’s sentence for the ungodly flop that is “Digger.”

It’s been a strange year for the motion picture industry, both creatively and business-wise. With the combining of Paramount and Warner Bros. to create Skydance, I’d say we’re at a very worrying inflection point. The Oscars almost feel like an afterthought at the moment. Nevertheless, I’ve every confidence that once the critics awards start getting dished out at the end of November, the old Oscar fever will kick in. And one of the most hotly contested categories will be Best Director, even without the aforementioned heavy hitters.

Though reactions to Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune: Part Three” and David Fincher’s “The Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth” (the Quentin Tarantino-scripted sequel to “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”) have yet to officially surface (more on that in a moment), I think it’s safe to say that there are two locks: Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo for “La Bola Negra,” and Christopher Nolan for “The Odyssey.” Beyond that, it’s a crowded field, which means campaigning will be key. We’ve yet to see much in the way of negative buzz, but rest assured, there will be mud. Until then, here’s how I think the category would shake out if they were announced today.

I hate to call the race for a film that has yet to open in the United States (and I have yet to see), but the buzz I’ve heard from plugged-in Oscar prognosticators who understand the history of this category seem to think Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo’s “La Bola Negra,” their second feature, is the kind of emotionally overwhelming epic that’s catnip to Academy voters. The duo won the Cannes Film Festival’s award for Best Director, and the film won the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival. No movie has more momentum at present.

“La Bola Negra” is a narrative triptych set in Spain that takes place in 1932, 1937 and 2017. It’s based in part on Federico Garcia Lorca’s unfinished final play and then becomes a love story set against the Spanish Civil War, one in which Garcia’s work and assassination by right-wing Nationalist forces looms large. The meat of the film deals with the romance between Nationalist soldier Sebastián (Guitarricadelafuente) and Lorca’s former companion Rafael Rodríguez Rapún (Miguel Bernardeau), who’s being held prisoner, and many critics have found themselves touched by Ambrossi and Calvo’s graceful humanistic approach. If voters want to take a stand against the anti-LGBTQ+ bigotry fomented by President Donald Trump and his subordinates, “La Bola Negra” could win big on Oscar night. Judging from everything I’ve read and heard, this just feels like the movie of the moment.

Academy voters love an epic with sweep and visual bravado, and that’s exactly what Christopher Nolan delivered this summer in “The Odyssey.” His adaptation of Homer’s epic poem earned rave reviews and has thus far grossed roughly $1.8 billion at the worldwide box office against a mammoth $250 million budget. With their industry in turmoil, voters need a movie that makes them remember what cinema does better than any other art form. Nolan gave them a star-studded spectacle with swagger, one that dazzled mainstream moviegoers and helped fire a hugely successful summer season.

Nolan won his first Best Director Oscar in 2024 for “Oppenheimer,” but winning again so soon shouldn’t be viewed as a hurdle. Alejandro González Iñárritu won back-to-back Best Director Oscars for “Birdman” and “The Revenant,” neither of which possessed the sheer physical chutzpah of “The Odyssey.” I could see a possible Picture/Director split where “The Odyssey” wins Best Picture while Ambrossi and Calvo take home Best Director. But Nolan is the top directing dog in Hollywood now (apologies to Steven Spielberg and James Cameron), and people love his cool, calm, collected demeanor. Again, it’s way too early, but this feels like a coin flip, and for the moment, my lucky quarter is turning up for the “La Bola Negra” gang.

Martin McDonagh’s in an interesting spot with “Wild Horse Nine,” a dark CIA comedy set against the run-up to the agency’s orchestration of the 1973 Chilean coup (which installed dictator Augusto Pinochet). He won an Oscar for Best Live Action Short Film via 2005’s “Six Shooter,” and he’s since been nominated for six, coming up empty every time. I’m surprised he doesn’t at least have a Best Original Screenplay trophy, especially because he was considered by many to be the frontrunner for 2017’s “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” and again for 2022’s “The Banshees of Inisherin.” Instead, voters opted for “Get Out” and “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” respectively.

McDonagh’s latest opens in the U.S. on November 6, so, again, I’m reacting strictly to the buzz (like /Film’s Bill Bria’s rave for “Wild Horse Nine”). The consensus is that this is classic McDonagh, one that might earn John Malkovich his first Best Actor Oscar. But “classic McDonagh” means it’s got sharp edges and is smaller in scope in a year that’s shaping up to be a battle of epics. Also, it’s weird that, despite winning three Oliviers for his plays, he’s never won a Tony in five tries. Perhaps McDonagh can campaign as the Irish Susan Lucci. He’s one of our finest dramatists, and he’s well overdue from one of the major awards organizations. Alas, I just don’t see it this year.

This is the year’s most compelling awards narrative. Olivia Wilde’s last film, “Don’t Worry Darling,” turned into a PR debacle thanks to all the rumors and reports of off-screen drama. Four years later, Wilde, who was an up-and-coming director on the strength of her feature debut with “Booksmart,” has returned with the blithely funny “The Invite,” a modernized blend of Edward Albee’s acerbic domestic dramas and Paul Mazursky’s “Bob & Carol & Ted & Alice.”

“The Invite” is a remake of Spanish filmmaker Cesc Gay’s “The People Upstairs,” and, let’s face it,  the track record of U.S. remakes of Spanish comedies is dire. But Wilde wisely assembled a spectacular quartet (Seth Rogen, Edward Norton, Penelope Cruz, and herself) to examine this story of neighborly sexual tension in a very American way. Rogen is dynamite as a frustrated jazz musician who’s dealing with sexual jealousy and frustration. His career and his personal life are drilling a hole in his soul. Best Directing isn’t always about managing a $250 million production. Sometimes, it’s stepping onto a soundstage and getting the best out of your actors. “Who’s Afraid of Virginia Wolf?” didn’t win Mike Nichols the prize for Best Director, but he was one movie away from the trophy. Wilde is one to watch.

Initially, I had Phil Lord and Christopher Miller slotted here for “Project Hail Mary,” but then I started hearing the buzz from early “Dune: Part Three” screenings. While Denis Villeneuve’s first two “Dune” movies received Best Picture nominations, the director was denied a Best Director nod for both. He’s been nominated as a director before (for “Arrival”), but the “Dune” films have been weirdly treated as technical feats. And yet, watching protagonist Paul Atreides (Timothée Chalamet) maneuver his way from rebellious hero to aspiring despot is every bit as relevant as “Oppenheimer” and “One Battle After Another.” There’s an icy pragmatism to Villeneuve’s take on Frank Herbert’s “Dune” novels that’s perfect for our troubled times. And maybe, depending on how the United States’ midterm elections go, this is the year that narrative reverberates.

I truly believe the mood of the nation will determine which sci-fi blockbuster gains the most awards momentum. Villeneuve has the edge because he’s viewed as a prestige auteur, but “Project Hail Mary” explodes with hope. The latter is a masterfully crafted blast of optimism at a time when we need it more than ever … but if the American electorate chooses fascism this November, the cold comfort of “Dune: Part Three” might feel tragically right.