The NBA playoffs are almost here.
First comes the play-in tournament, which starts on Wednesday (AEST), to determine the two teams from each conference that will keep their championship ambitions alive.
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But realistically, there are clear contenders in each conference and those teams have already locked in their place in the playoffs (April 19).
Here, foxsports.com.au looks at some of the biggest storylines to follow in this year’s play-in tournament and playoffs.
COULD INJURY ‘DISASTER’ SPELL THE END OF LEBRON’S L.A. FAIRYTALE?
While Oklahoma City and San Antonio are the clear favourites in the West, LeBron and the Lakers were at least an outside chance of making a deep run in the playoffs.
That was before both Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves went down injured in the same game.
“The word disaster gets thrown around a lot but this time, it is well and truly one,” ESPN’s Tim Bontemps said on ‘The Hoop Collective Podcast’.
Both players were quickly ruled out for the remainder of the regular season, with Doncic suffering a hamstring strain while Reaves is expected to miss between four and six weeks with a grade two oblique strain.
There isn’t a clear timeline on when Doncic could return to the court, with the Slovenian travelling to Europe last week in a bid to ramp up his recovery.
Doncic, an MVP candidate before the injury, is said to have suffered a grade two hamstring strain that would normally mean at least a few weeks on the sideline, if not at least a month.
With the playoffs fast approaching, however, the Lakers can ill-afford to be without the six-time All-Star and instead leaning on a 41-year-old LeBron James to carry the team.
James is still capable of shouldering the load, as was evidenced in his 30-point, 15-assist performance against the Mavericks last week, but at this stage of his career it is not something he can be relied to do on a nightly basis, and especially in a playoff environment where the defensive pressure is only ramped up.
At this stage, however, that looks like the reality facing the Lakers with both Doncic and Reaves appearing likely to miss the first round of the playoffs.
The 15 assists James dished up against Dallas was a season-high, while the 22 shots he attempted were the most he had recorded since a game against the Clippers in December which came without Reaves.
The reason the Lakers had been so successful this season before the injuries was because there was no longer the expectation that James had to be that guy, as was the case in previous years before Doncic was traded to L.A.
But now that isn’t the expectation. It’s what the Lakers need.
If there is one reason for optimism it is that they will play the Houston Rockets in the first round.
That is a better scenario than getting the Timberwolves or Nuggets. But even if this is a flawed Rockets team, they have the talent to pretty easily get past the Lakers without Doncic and Reaves.
It means the Lakers are staring at the possibility of a disappointing first-round exit, where attention will immediately turn to James’ future.
He could re-sign but that would require a significant pay cut on his current $52.6 million contract.
Doing so would enable the Lakers to make moves around the margins to better put the Lakers in a position to contend for a title, which is what the 41-year-old wants to do at this stage of his career.
But would he be better off chasing a ring elsewhere as the Lakers continue to build instead around Doncic and Reaves, who will likely decline his $14.9 million player option for 2026-27 to pursue a long-term extension?
Lots of questions will be answered this summer, and the Lakers may be forced to confront them sooner than expected.
NBA Wrap: Doncic scores 60! | 01:33
‘UNBELIEVABLE’: CAN THE CELTICS PULL OFF THE UNTHINKABLE?
This was supposed to be a gap year.
Like the Indiana Pacers when they lost Tyrese Haliburton in the NBA Finals last year, the Boston Celtics were also expected to underperform — relative to their usual standards — without Jayson Tatum.
Now, there were questions over just how far they would be willing to fall because Joe Mazzulla is the kind of head coach who is always going to want to compete no matter what.
But still, the Celtics recognised the opportunity that the Tatum injury had afforded them. It gave them an opportunity to reset their books.
They traded Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis to avoid the second apron, which is a strict spending threshold which severely limits the types of transactions and roster moves a team can make.
In the context of a Celtics team that wasn’t supposed to be competing for a title this season, it made perfect sense to get off the Holiday and Porzingis money now in order to give them more financial flexibility for the future when they would be in a position to push for the championship.
But in a relatively wide-open Eastern Conference, there was also a sense that if they were able to tread water until Tatum was healthy there may be a chance for them to make a late push.
Instead, an MVP-calibre season from Jaylen Brown — so often seen as Tatum’s running mate and little more — saw Boston keep pace with the best in the East and suddenly the Celtics now enter the playoffs as the favourite to make it to the Finals.
The Pistons finished with a better record but haven’t quite proven they are capable of taking that leap in the postseason, while there are also question marks over who will step up if Cade Cunningham is having an off night.
The Knicks, meanwhile, are just so hard to trust — especially in the postseason while Cleveland traded for James Harden in a bid to go all the way but have also struggled to put it all together in the playoffs recently.
Tatum, meanwhile, is starting to look more comfortable in his return from a torn Achilles and even if he can’t replicate the same form that took the Celtics all the way to a title, he now can take confidence in knowing Brown is capable of being that primary playmaker on any given night.
While so many other teams around the league are tanking to maximise their picks in a stacked 2026 class, the Celtics are living proof that a strong culture prevents the need to ever have to throw a season away completely.
“Their organisational competency because of Mazzulla is ridiculous. It’s absolutely unbelievable,” The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie said on the ‘Game Theory Podcast’.
“The fact that these guys continue to take advantage of every single piece of low-hanging fruit, to have both a top-five offence and a top-five defence while playing at the lowest pace in the NBA is very fun.
“They do an amazing job at rebounding… they limit turnovers in a real way… just because frankly their offensive structure and scheme is built so they play in space, giving these guys more time to make decisions so they don’t feel flustered and rushed… I just trust everything they put their players in a position to do.”
AWKWARD $340 MILLION DILEMMA COULD FORCE MAGIC TO ‘BLOW IT UP’
Hope is a dangerous thing, and right now the Magic have plenty of it entering the playoffs.
Just as it looked like Orlando would be limping into the postseason, Jamahl Mosley’s team rounded out the regular season with five-straight wins at one point — including one against the Pistons.
Now, that was a Detroit team without Cade Cunningham, but considering how the Magic had played only a week prior, losing 139-87 to the Raptors, no win can be taken for granted anymore.
Still, while the Magic have started to put it together, they will ultimately get judged on what happens in the playoffs.
And that is if they even make it there. Not getting out of the play-in tournament would be a disaster.
That is especially true after Orlando sent four unprotected first-round picks and one first-round pick swap along with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Cole Anthony for Desmond Bane in the offseason.
The expectation was that this young Magic core would at least take a step forward in the playoffs, having lost their first-round series against the Celtics 4-1.
That loss only further crystallised exactly what they needed to go after in the summer, after ranking 23rd in 3-point attempts and 30th in 3-point percentage.
So, it made sense to target Bane, even if they paid a premium price, and he has largely delivered what was expected.
If anything, the trade has proven that Orlando’s problems go deeper than anything Bane, or any similar move, could have fixed.
They identified a weakness and went about finding a solution for it, but that the bigger problem — and more uncomfortable one — is that Paolo Banchero’s development seems to have stagnated.
Specifically, his shooting has not developed to the level it needs to be at for such a ball-dominant player, and for a player who was signed to a five-year, $239 million ($A340m) maximum rookie contract extension he simply isn’t living up to that lofty price tag.
It means that if the Magic bow out quickly in the playoffs, tough conversations will be needed in the summer.
“I just don’t think he’s that guy,” Tom Haberstroh said on ‘The Kevin O’Connor Show’.
“I think they’ve got to blow it up. I don’t think it’s a Jamahl Moseley problem. Maybe they move him… I kind of feel like when you’re the Orlando Magic watching this group play together you’ve got to sim it until the end of the season. It’s so hard to watch.
“They’re desperate for 3-point shooting… when Paolo Banchero is your third-most high volume 3-point shooter and he’s like big Russell Westbrook out there in terms of his 3-point shot, that’s a huge indictment on the team-building aspect. They’ve got to blow it up.”
HOW COULD THE PLAYOFFS IMPACT GIANNIS SWEEPSTAKES?
It is the divorce that seems inevitable at this point, and what happens in the playoffs could determine where Giannis Antetokounmpo lands next.
Everyone is sick of the ongoing Antetokounmpo saga at this point, with it appearing that neither party wants to look like the bad guy.
What is clear, however, is that both Antetokounmpo and the Bucks would benefit from splitting up.
ESPN’s Shams Charania reported last week that Antetokounmpo and his agent, Alex Saratsis, met with Bucks owners two weeks before the trade deadline where they agreed to part ways, with Antetokounmpo’s side asking they “do right” by him.
The Timberwolves, Warriors, Cavaliers, Heat, and 76ers were the leading candidates to trade for Antetokounmpo at that point, with the Bucks ultimately choosing to wait until the offseason to see if they get a better offer than what was on the table at the deadline.
It could end up being a shrewd move given a team that crashes out of the playoffs in the coming weeks may be desperate to make a big swing for Antetokounmpo in the summer.
After all, those five teams that were heavily linked to Antetokounmpo before the deadline will all feature in the postseason.
The same goes for the Knicks, who reportedly discussed a Giannis deal during the summer of 2025 and are under more pressure than most teams to deliver a title after firing Tom Thibodeau.
How about the aforementioned Magic, who could offer Banchero as the centrepiece of a potential trade or the Rockets, who have a young core and traded for Kevin Durant in the summer, but may consider an even bolder move in the summer if they fall short?
You can’t rule the Lakers out of any blockbuster trades either, as their move for Luka Doncic showed. The same goes for the Spurs, although you’d suspect they will take a more patient approach given how successful this season has been with a healthy Victor Wembanyama.
The Athletic’s Sam Amick even reported the Celtics of all teams are “known to be interested” in Antetokounmpo and have been “discussed in league circles as potential suitors”.
It makes an intriguing playoffs race even more interesting considering what is on the line.
Timberwolves end 7,685 day drought | 01:03
WHY ‘NOBODY IS SAFE’ IF CAVALIERS CRASH OUT AGAIN
Talking about teams in the Antetokounmpo sweepstakes, what about Cleveland?
The Cavaliers already signalled their intentions to contend for a title right now by trading Darius Garland for James Harden, acknowledging that the Garland-Donovan Mitchell backcourt was not working even if moving him shortened their championship window.
The Harden trade wasn’t the only move the Cavaliers made at the deadline either, trading De’Andre Hunter and Lonzo Ball along with Garland while adding Harden, Dennis Schroder and Keon Ellis.
It was a major shake-up that proved Cleveland, who had consistently fallen short in the playoffs in the Mitchell era, sensed the urgent need for change.
But that doesn’t mean that the Cavaliers will run it back next season should they crash out of the postseason again.
That is especially true considering this summer marks one year before Mitchell can become a free agent in the 2027 offseason. If the Cavaliers were to exit the playoffs in the first or second round again, would the superstar guard be willing to overlook that and sign an extension?
“That seems unlikely,” ESPN’s Tim Bontemps wrote earlier in the year.
His ESPN colleague Brian Windhorst, meanwhile, described it as a “vote of confidence in the direction of the franchise” that Mitchell will give the Cavaliers this summer.
“This playoffs has got to work out for them,” Windhorst added.
“They were disappointing last season when they had the number one seed and got knocked out in the second round. This year, only 19th in overall defence since the All-Star break. That is not the recipe for how they make a deep playoff race.”
Mitchell’s 42 leads Cavs past Magic | 00:51
While so much of the talk has centred around Mitchell and Harden after the mid-season trade, the X-factor for the Cavaliers in the playoffs will be Evan Mobley.
If he can rebound consistently and is aggressive in the paint, it will lift Cleveland’s ceiling considerably. The Cavs know what they are going to get from Mitchell. The same goes for Harden — his playoffs reputation precedes him after all.
Defences will also naturally put most of their focus into stopping Mitchell and Harden, leaving Mobley in a beneficial position to attack.
Meanwhile, if there was one clear weakness for Cleveland this season it was the defence, which is overly reliant on the frontcourt of Mobley and Jarrett Allen.
Speaking of which, Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints reported last week that there is a “potential path” for the Cavaliers to use Allen and Mobley to make a “serious” run at Antetokounmpo.
Cleveland.com’s Jimmy Watkins, meanwhile, said on the Wine and Gold Talk podcast that if Cleveland doesn’t make the conference finals, he feels “secure” in declaring “nobody is safe”.
“Top down. Everyone’s fair game to be traded,” he added.
Watkins even went as far as to suggest the Cavaliers could go “gas to the floor on win-now” and go after either Antetokounmpo or even LeBron James.
“The James Harden trade tells me that Donovan is the championship window in their eyes,” he added.
“And if that’s the case and they lose in disappointing fashion in the playoffs, then you cannot in good conscience bring him a run it back plan.”
A NEW THREAT TO OKLAHOMA CITY IN THE WEST?
When the Oklahoma City Thunder lifted the Larry O’Brien Trophy last year, it looked like it could be just the start of a dominant reign at the top of the Western Conference.
That still remains true, with the Thunder finishing the regular season as the top seed once more.
But even if the likes of the Nuggets, Lakers, Timberwolves and Rockets were expected to test Oklahoma City come the postseason, none of those teams are set up like the Thunder are for long-term success.
A dynasty was looming, and to be fair there is no reason to suggest Oklahoma City still can’t win many more championships in the years to come.
But there are new kids on the block. The San Antonio Spurs, who entered this season with one of the most promising young cores in the league, are challenging the Thunder already for ascendancy in the West.
And while the 27-year-old reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is still young, he is not young like 22-year-old Victor Wembanyama, the face of the Spurs, is.
Although no one can be compared to the 7-foot-5 French phenom, and that is part of the reason why San Antonio is in a position to make a deep playoff run this soon.
“I believe in common experiences of playoff scars, but if there is ever a team to challenge that it is the San Antonio Spurs,” eight-time NBA All-Star and former Nets head coach Steve Nash said on ‘NBA on Prime’.
“They are like something we have never seen because of one guy: Victor Wembanyama. So, you can’t really compare them to any team that came before us.
“They are an anomaly in this respect. Maybe they are a team that can challenge before their time. You look at their guard play, terrific young players along with Fox, but Wemby’s differential at both ends of the floor is such a difference-maker.
“It puts them in a position where they could be a contender this early.”
In fact, the Spurs were a particularly tricky puzzle to crack for the Thunder early in the regular season, with Oklahoma City struggling to contain San Antonio’s multiple ball-handlers.
That is without mentioning the near-impossible task that is stopping Wembanyama.
So can the Spurs, who at one point in February went on a historic 26-2 run, go all the way despite all the talk that they don’t have the necessary playoff experience?
Well, they have continued to defy expectations up until this point. So why not in the postseason? Fourteen-time All-Star and Hall of Famer Dirk Nowitzki doesn’t see many weaknesses in this Spurs team.
“I didn’t think the guards would take a leap that fast,” Nowitzki said on ‘NBA on Prime’.
“Stefon Castle (has been) incredible on both ends of the floor. Dylan Harper doesn’t play like a rookie. All their role players are playing well. Keldon Johnson is probably the Sixth Man of the Year.
“They’re just well-coached, they always compete, they move the ball, they’re solid defensively. I did not see them taking that step already, this soon, this early.”
The best part about it for the Spurs, like the Thunder, is that even if they don’t win a championship this year they have this young core locked in and additional draft capital to keep their title window open for seasons to come.
And if it does end up being Oklahoma City and San Antonio duelling it out in the Western Conference Finals, it feels like it won’t be the last time that happens in the near-future.
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