AFL 2026, Power Rankings after Round 1

Welcome back to the Power Rankings.

Neither of last year’s Grand Finalists has started impressively, with a shared issue threatening to bring them down. Plus why St Kilda’s wobbly start is even worse than it appears.

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See our ranking of every AFL club from best to worst after Round 1 below!

How do the Power Rankings work? We take wins and losses into account, but also the quality of opposition faced and whether teams are likely to get healthier and/or improve going forward. It’s a little bit ‘who’s hot and who’s not’; part predictive, part analysis of what’s happened. If Team A is above Team B, we’d probably tip A to win if they were playing at a neutral venue this weekend.

All times AEDT.

1. GOLD COAST SUNS (2-0, 181.6%)

Last week: Ranked 1st, def West Coast by 59 pts

Halfway through the second quarter on Sunday night, it felt like the Suns could’ve picked their margin, and we wouldn’t have minded seeing them absolutely blow West Coast off the park with a massive score – the type the Suns themselves were conceding early in their history. (Not just as a statement, but to give themselves a healthy dose of percentage.) Still hard to find any flaws in their start to the year and we imagine Dimma will be keen to avoid a repeat of last year’s shocking upset against the Tigers. Right now, there’s nothing to criticise. We thought coming into 2026 they would be the ‘start the season red hot and be flag favourite midway through the year’ team and they’re perfectly poised for that. But as we saw with Collingwood last year and Sydney before that, setting yourself up for success doesn’t mean you’ll find it.

This week: Richmond at the MCG, Saturday 1:15pm

2. WESTERN BULLDOGS (2-0, 154.1%)

Last week: Ranked 3rd, def GWS by 81 pts

The funny thing is, after pumping up the Bulldogs the last couple of years, we should be joining everyone else in celebrating how good they look… but we have to pump the brakes a little bit! We’re definitely not saying they were lucky to beat the Giants, but they were fortunate to win by as much as they did, with a seven-goal swing on expected score. That follows an expected score impacted win over Brisbane in Opening Round. So they’re clearly a very good team, and probably better than last year because of their noticeable defensive tweaks. But if we’re gonna point out how much luck hurt them in recent years, we need to be balanced and point out how luck is helping them this year. It’s pretty wild how they could have more wins against top eight quality sides after Round 2 than they did through all of 2025.

This week: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval, Friday 7:40pm

3. SYDNEY SWANS (2-0, 182.9%)

Last week: Ranked 5th, def Brisbane by 44 pts

You could easily put the Swans even higher than this, after an excellent win over Brisbane that saw Dean Cox’s side living up to all the hype. But we’re also looking forward and for the second straight year they’re going to have to find a way to keep their brilliant ball movement going while missing Errol Gulden, without whom they were considerably worse in 2025. Given his inside-outside midfield mix we would argue he’s their most important player right now, and being without him for four months probably pushes Sydney down from a top four near-certainty to fighting for the last spots in the top six. The good news is they’ve got a couple of wins on the board so they’re not going to be fighting out of a hole like last year, when they were 0-2 and then 2-5. They’ve got some tricky games to come (Hawthorn away, Gold Coast in Gather Round, the SCG Derby and then the Bulldogs away) but they only need to pinch one of those (and beat West Coast in Round 4 which… duh) to have a winning record at Anzac Day.

This week: Hawthorn at the MCG, Thursday 7:30pm

4. BRISBANE LIONS (0-2, 77.2%)

Last week: Ranked 2nd, lost to Sydney by 44 pts

We’re not massively concerned about the Lions but it’s fair to flag their defence as an issue. They have primarily won games over the past two seasons without shutting down opponents – they’re more likely to control a game with their uncontested mark dominance – and have conceded some massive scores even during their two premiership campaigns. So while they have some excuses, like arguably playing the game’s two best attacks in their first two games along with their absences on the weekend, this is kinda just a continuing problem. They were 6th for points allowed last year so it wouldn’t surprise us if they ended the season mid-table defensively. That limits their home and away ceiling but as long as they’re in the top six when September starts, they can win it.

This week: BYE

5. GEELONG (1-1, 79.6%)

Last week: Ranked 4th, def Fremantle by 10 pts

That comeback win over the Dockers may prove even more vital than it appeared at first glance, given the Cats’ very tricky fixture, including games against Adelaide, Hawthorn and the Bulldogs over the next month. We’re definitely concerned about their defence, having given up 100 points twice in a row – in particular on Saturday, given the Dockers only scored over 85 points once against a top eight opponent in 2025. They weren’t incredible defensively last year, giving up a triple digit score five times, and they were even leakier in 2024… when they still hosted a prelim. It’s something they can overcome but they are a long way off the standard of the 2022 Cats, who conceded just 11 goals a game.

This week: BYE

6. ADELAIDE CROWS (1-0, 117.7%)

Last week: Ranked 6th, def Collingwood by 14 pts

That was an excellent, professional win over the Magpies – the type of away victory that the great teams bank over the course of a season to build a top-four resume – in a great sign for the Crows’ chances. They’ll be underdogs again going into Friday night’s big clash against the Bulldogs and there’s every chance they’ll continue to prove the footy media wrong (as we are, broadly speaking, ignoring them when discussing the AFL’s best teams). We would be extremely impressed if they enter Gather Round with a winning record, given they’ve also got Geelong away and Fremantle to come, but they’re a chance of doing so.

This week: Western Bulldogs at Adelaide Oval, Friday 7:40pm

7. FREMANTLE (0-1, 90.9%)

Last week: Ranked 9th, lost to Geelong by 10 pts

Justin Longmuir was understandably frustrated with the loss to Geelong and we don’t doubt the comparative lack of match fitness played some role in the game, but blaming Opening Round for the loss is silly – especially given Adelaide and Melbourne won games later in the weekend against sides that had the same ‘advantage’. He was probably annoyed because it was a massive opportunity gone begging, especially with how good the Dockers looked in the first half. If they play like that all season, they’ll be making the top four with a massive shot at a preliminary final (or better), so dropping four points makes more of an impact in that context. We said pre-season the Dockers absolutely had the potential to prove us wrong, and be a true contender rather than just making up the numbers, but we needed to see it to believe in them (because last year wasn’t as good as everyone thought). That was a hell of a start, and it’s why we have moved them up two spots despite losing.

This week: Melbourne at Optus Stadium, Saturday 7:35pm

8. HAWTHORN (1-1, 117.1%)

Last week: Ranked 8th, def Essendon by 62 pts

The Hawks are in this weird place where we can’t tell if they’re legit contenders… yet we’re pretty sure we’re gonna tip them against a red-hot Sydney. Last Friday night’s win was heavily influenced by the fact the concept of defence is stuck in traffic on the Tulla, so the Bombers are yet to be introduced to it – you can’t look too deeply into how good Hawthorn looked, though it was still a promising sign. At their best the Swans could tear the Hawks apart like GWS did in Opening Round, but the Swans won’t be at their best without Errol Gulden and Isaac Heeney. And so it’s a great opportunity for Sam Mitchell’s men to bank a pretty juicy win ahead of a very tough stretch after their Round 3 bye (Geelong, Bulldogs, Gold Coast, Collingwood and Fremantle away, with a likely win over Port sandwiched in there).

This week: Sydney at the MCG, Thursday 7:30pm

9. GWS GIANTS (1-1, 76.4%)

Last week: Ranked 7th, lost to Western Bulldogs by 81 pts

To be fair, they also got smashed by the Bulldogs last year, and still had a pretty great home and away season – so that doesn’t disqualify them from being contenders. So while we’re not massively concerned about the Giants we were more impressed by a few other teams and thus had to move them down. They still feel pretty comfortably like a top 10 team; we like Melbourne but not THAT much, and Collingwood doesn’t have a high ceiling with their offensive woes. The only other realistic team to break into the top 10 would be St Kilda… and, well, Saturday evening will be very instructive.

This week: St Kilda at ENGIE Stadium, Saturday 4:15pm

10. COLLINGWOOD (1-1, 98.7%)

Last week: Ranked 10th, lost to Adelaide by 14 pts

They have proven us wrong before, but the Magpies don’t look like they have the ceiling to become a premiership contender. They are defensively sound, professional and tough to beat. They will rarely be embarrassed this year. But do they have the capacity to score 120 points in a game, like the best attacks in the comp – Suns, Dogs, Swans, Lions – clearly do? The simple answer is ‘they need a key forward like Ben King’ and obviously that’d help, likewise if Bobby Hill was back playing, but this feels a bit bigger than just one or two players. Collingwood is fine. But that may be it.

This week: BYE

11. MELBOURNE (1-0, 112.1%)

Last week: Ranked 15th, def St Kilda by 13 pts

The Demons are fun! What a world! Arguably the biggest pleasant surprise of the weekend was Melbourne being involved in a shootout… and winning it. We were too cowardly to actually tip them against St Kilda, or to put them higher on our predicted ladder, even though a lot of the numbers we look at rated them higher than pretty much the entire footy media has. Our old mate Pythagoras’ two strongest predictions were the Bulldogs to improve (which looks great so far) and Melbourne to improve. Well, they sure looked better than a seven-win team on Sunday! We’re not convinced any of the teams outside this ranking’s top 10 will play finals, and we’re not jumping off the Saints (who we tipped for 10th) just yet… but why can’t the Dees win 11 or 12 games and sneak into the wildcard round? This week against Freo is a free hit, and in a way, this whole season is a free hit. That can only help them.

This week: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Saturday 7:35pm

12. ST KILDA (0-2, 87.4%)

Last week: Ranked 11th, lost to Melbourne by 13 pts

In the big picture, the Saints are fine. They’re not the finished product and still badly need Max King; we totally understand why Ross Lyon was pretty balanced and said they could be 2-0 right now. But they’ve dropped two games to like types, with Collingwood and Melbourne looking like middle six teams, and the fixture stays tricky with games against GWS (away) and Brisbane over the next fortnight. Throw in consecutive Adelaide Oval games, where they almost never win, against Port Adelaide and Adelaide and there’s a real risk they find themselves sitting 1-5 or even 0-6. It would probably be an unfair reflection of their quality but they have set themselves up for this. Saints fans may be thinking ‘the media’ is to blame for the pre-season hype – to be fair, we all agreed at the big secret pre-season meeting that we’d go hard on the Saints because we’re biased against them. Oops, shouldn’t have mentioned that. Remember to delete this before publishing – but the club has pumped itself up. They asked to host that big Opening Round MCG game; they understand that as a smaller Victorian club they can’t just be irrelevant, and they need to demand attention. That’s probably the right thing to do to make the club richer and more successful in the years to come. But the risk was always short-term pain for long-term gain.

This week: GWS at ENGIE Stadium, Saturday 4:15pm

13. CARLTON (1-1, 70.9%)

Last week: Ranked 13th, def Richmond by 4 pts

We heavily considered moving the Blues down, because absolutely nobody came out of Thursday night’s game feeling good – not Carlton fans, not Richmond fans, and certainly not neutrals who made the regrettable decision to sit through it. It’s incredible how predictable they are, fading away in the second half as always, and against the fittest and best teams they are going to be absolutely torn apart as they tire. They could still be 3-1, with winnable games against Melbourne and North Melbourne to come, though on the weekend both of those sides looked much more suited to this faster mode of footy 2026 is producing. The worst-case scenario would be sitting 1-3 heading into a pair of Thursday night games against Adelaide and Collingwood which they’re already unlikely to win. At that point, they (and Michael Voss) will be the story. Don’t say we didn’t warn you.

This week: BYE

14. NORTH MELBOURNE (1-0, 168.7%)

Last week: Ranked 16th, def Port Adelaide by 46 pts

We don’t want to go early on the Kangaroos based on one exciting home win – remember how we felt about North after they smashed Melbourne in Round 2 last year? – and it was kinda weird how Port Adelaide just allowed Alastair Clarkson’s side to control the ball. That won’t happen every week. But this was a game where the winner was going to come out of it eyeing a fast start to the season, and now with the Kangaroos facing West Coast, Essendon, Carlton and Richmond before Anzac Day (plus Brisbane in Gather Round), they’re every chance of being 5-1. They have set themselves up nicely. More importantly, Tom Powell has become our favourite active footballer, because his goal song is Randy Orton’s entrance theme (though we prefer the old one to Voices) and his favourite Pokemon is Lopunny (the cultured man’s selection… look it up).

This week: West Coast at Optus Stadium, Sunday 6:10pm

15. PORT ADELAIDE (0-1, 59.3%)

Last week: Ranked 12th, lost to North Melbourne by 46 pts

So that stuff we said last week about them starting 4-0… that relied upon them being closer to the 2024 team than the 2025 one. The problem was they looked worse than either. Poor offensively and even more questionable defensively, they let the Kangaroos do what they wanted with ball in hand, in arguably the weekend’s most disappointing loss. We wrote in the pre-season it wasn’t necessarily the best thing for the club if they were contending for the wildcard spots in 2026, given their need for high draft picks to match bids for top talent over the next couple of years. But even the most ‘tanking is OK’-brained fan would’ve been disappointed with Sunday.

This week: Essendon at Adelaide Oval, Sunday 3:15pm

16. ESSENDON (0-1, 57.2%)

Last week: Ranked 14th, lost to Hawthorn by 62 pts

We already feel a bit silly expecting the Bombers to be OK this year. The Hawks will make a few teams look bad this year, but the Dons’ defence was worse than ever on Friday night, and they are absolutely primed to get exposed by the faster ball movement we’re seeing with the tweaked rules of the game. You can’t be that disorganised and expect to be remotely competitive this season, so while it’s not like anyone was realistically expecting them to contend for the finals, they absolutely have to show growth defensively through 2026. On the plus side, Port Adelaide looked just as bad as they did in Round 1, so maybe they can ease the pressure with a nice upset win?

This week: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Sunday 3:15pm

17. RICHMOND (0-1, 94.7%)

Last week: Ranked 17th, lost to Carlton by 4 pts

We’re big fans of The Expected Score Respecter Adem Yze in this column, and he continued to win us over with his comments after Thursday night’s narrow loss. Yze pointed out last year, when the Tigers had just produced a famous comeback to beat the Blues, that they had lost the game on expected score – and this year he effectively said they probably should’ve lost last year, and probably should’ve won this year. We love that he is focusing on the process over the results because that’s absolutely what matters for a team in this position. Was it incredibly frustrating for the fanbase that poor goalkicking cost them another chance to ruin Carlton’s season before it really starts? Sure. Does it actually matter in the big picture? No; it was a learning experience and they’ll be better for it long-term.

This week: Gold Coast at the MCG, Saturday 1:15pm

18. WEST COAST EAGLES (0-1, 55%)

Last week: Ranked 18th, lost to Gold Coast by 59 pts

We reckon if you asked every (reasonable) Eagles fan pre-game if they would have taken a 10-goal away loss to Gold Coast, they would’ve all said yes. Funnily enough on expected score it was even closer – something like a three or four-goal margin, thanks to the Suns’ early accuracy, though the weird flow of the game means the stat isn’t hugely useful here. It was a genuinely respectable showing after things threatened to get really ugly in the first half, and Milan Murdock is a fantastic story. He’s the type of player West Coast should absolutely be taking a gamble on as they seek as much talent as possible. Yes, North looked pretty good beating Port, but the Eagles should feel they’re a chance of beating any bottom six team at home if they’re able to produce long periods of footy like Sunday’s second half.

This week: North Melbourne at Optus Stadium, Sunday 6:10pm