AFL 2026, Power Rankings after Round 5

Welcome back to the Power Rankings.

Gather Round’s super Saturday became statement Saturday, creating a new No.1 seed in our rankings, while giving us further proof of the seven teams who can win the flag as it stands.

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See our ranking of every AFL club from best to worst after Round 5 below!

How do the Power Rankings work? We take wins and losses into account, but also the quality of opposition faced and whether teams are likely to get healthier and/or improve going forward. It’s a little bit ‘who’s hot and who’s not’; part predictive, part analysis of what’s happened. If Team A is above Team B, we’d probably tip A to win if they were playing at a neutral venue this weekend.

All times AEST.

1. HAWTHORN (4-1, 121%)

Last week: Ranked 3rd, def Western Bulldogs by 40 pts

They’re not a runaway, dominant No.1 seed – after all, they needed a last-second score to beat our 7th-ranked team eight days ago. But the Hawks have taken pole position, for now at least, after their impressive win over the previously No.1-ranked Bulldogs. Sure, the Dogs had both injuries and inaccuracy which inflated the margin… but Will Day is a pretty big out as well, and the Hawks’ midfield is supposed to be their big flaw. Instead with help from their emerging weapon ruck pairing, Jai Newcombe led a huge performance. It’s fair to point out that the Hawks have been fortunate with the timing of their recent big games – Sydney without Heeney and Gulden, Geelong without a few including Dangerfield, and now the ruck-less Bulldogs – but that’s just the natural cadence of a season. They still beat all of those teams, the former two more impressively than the scoreboard suggested, proving they can beat the best teams. Which means they can be the best team themselves.

This week: Port Adelaide at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 4:15pm

2. BRISBANE LIONS (3-2, 115%)

Last week: Ranked 2nd, def North Melbourne by 26 pts

Any baseball fans out there? The Lions are kinda feeling like the Los Angeles Dodgers to us. The Dodgers have been one of the best teams in baseball for over a decade but they couldn’t break through for multiple World Series titles until recently, when they realised it didn’t matter if they kept dominating the regular season, because the playoffs are full of small sample nonsense where almost anything can happen. Since focusing more on preparing for the post-season, they have won two straight championships. Remind you of anyone? We know we’ve mentioned this idea that Brisbane doesn’t need to care about the home and away season before, but watching them deal with a feisty North Melbourne on Saturday just cemented it. They’re timing their run.

This week: Melbourne at the MCG, Sunday 3:15pm

3. WESTERN BULLDOGS (4-1, 120.7%)

Last week: Ranked 1st, lost to Hawthorn by 40 pts

It was a pretty big midfield beatdown on Saturday night – and even with Tim English and Tom Liberatore missing, that shouldn’t be happening when you compare their stocks against the Hawks’ group. We are not overly concerned though. They have been quite poor against Sam Mitchell’s side over the last few seasons, now losing five straight meetings, so he seems to have something over Luke Beveridge. And it was their first bad night of the year… which wasn’t even as bad as it looked on the scoreboard, as they produced a lot of high-quality shots but kicked woefully (around six goals below expectation). The injury news keeps mounting though it seems like every week it’s ‘oh no this player is seriously hurt… actually nah no worries mate he’ll play’. So, again, nothing to be majorly worried about. Though their brutal stretch to start the year has a bit longer to run, with Sydney and Fremantle both at Marvel to come, so they can’t afford an extended dip.

This week: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, Friday 7:20pm

4. SYDNEY SWANS (4-1, 175.5%)

Last week: Ranked 6th, def Gold Coast by 32 pts

The only caveat we want to put on the Gold Coast win is that it may seem less impressive in a few weeks’ time, if the Suns keep sliding, but otherwise you can’t argue with the Swans’ performances since their early bye. The only real problem has been Charlie Curnow not living up to the billing – he has had the most scoring shots on the team, but is third for goals, even behind Isaac Heeney (who has played one fewer game… and is a midfielder). If Curnow is just OK for the rest of the year, we know they can still contend because they would basically be the 2024 Swans who cruised until Grand Final day. And you would rather have the problem of one big-name player being below par than last year’s problem of ‘the game style isn’t working and everyone keeps getting injured’. Even without Errol Gulden they are electric at the moment, and while their overall stats are inflated by the West Coast demolition job, their underlying numbers say they’re the flag favourite. We’ve still got them just below the top rungs… for now.

This week: GWS at the SCG, Friday 7:50pm

5. FREMANTLE (4-1, 131.4%)

Last week: Ranked 4th, def Collingwood by 6 pts

We understand conditions made things tricky on Friday night, as did Collingwood attempting to drag footy back to the stone age, but we still would’ve liked to see a little more dynamism from Fremantle. We came out of it feeling a little bit less confident in them, but only a bit. We don’t put too much weight on the fact they’ve won two close ones in a row – the fact they beat Collingwood in one (again!) just shows how unpredictable they are, because remember how good they were in close games? It is something that has happened, and it matters on the ladder because the fight for the top four is going to be close, and experiencing those scenarios repeatedly doesn’t hurt… but it’s not some new skill that’s going to guarantee they’ll keep winning close ones in the future. (We feel like we’ve been having this argument for half a decade now… oh god, we have… time is coming for all of us…) We’re not saying they’re lucky instead of good – they are lucky and good.

This week: West Coast at Optus Stadium, Sunday 5:10pm

6. GOLD COAST SUNS (3-2, 132%)

Last week: Ranked 5th, lost to Sydney by 32 pts

Another concerning midfield performance from a side that’s supposed to have that as a strength; you can’t completely throw out the Suns’ first three weeks, when they smashed two bad teams and caught out the Cats, but both that game and the GWS-Hawthorn result look really odd in retrospect. They’re going to be fine; they’re too talented to fall off a cliff, and the Swans are clearly pretty good so it wasn’t a horrendous loss. These sorts of big changes (dropping from our top seed to sixth) are natural early in the season when everything is still shaking out and the overreactions are bigger than usual. The Suns should still go in favourites for five of their next six games – Essendon (home), GWS (home), St Kilda (Darwin), Port Adelaide (Darwin) and North Melbourne (Marvel). The early Anzac Day game against Hawthorn in Tassie is their lone major test before the bye.

This week: Essendon at People First Stadium, Saturday 1:15pm

7. GEELONG (3-2, 101.5%)

Last week: Ranked 7th, def West Coast by 46 pts

Again, we would like to remind everyone that we’re self-admitted Geelong pessimists, and also that the gap between 1st and 7th in these rankings is pretty minor. (Especially when the Cats came as close to a draw with Hawthorn as possible.) After a wobbly start the Cats remembered they’re a class above the Eagles and took care of business on Sunday, with questions now turning to what has become a very interesting rivalry. Surprisingly given their overall dominance of the Dogs in the Chris Scott era, the Cats have lost two of their past three meetings at Kardinia Park (and they probably should’ve lost last year too)… you probably still have to lean their way though. The Friday night opener is clearly the toughest tip of the round and the Dogs’ injury report will determine whether we’re picking Geelong with a little bit of confidence, or purely because it’s at home.

This week: Western Bulldogs at GMHBA Stadium, Friday 7:20pm

8. ADELAIDE CROWS (2-3, 106.4%)

Last week: Ranked 8th, def Carlton by 28 pts

We said before seven teams can win the flag… and the Crows are eighth, so you can probably draw your own conclusion here. It might be harsh to rule out a team that lost to three of the contenders above them by a combined 16 points, but let’s look at what’s really happening. Those losses weren’t as close as the scoreboard said, while their win over Carlton wasn’t as good as it looked – and it didn’t look great – with a few freakish goals inflating the margin. This is an imperfect metric but it means something: their percentage on expected score would be 81%, not the 106.4% it is in reality. When healthy we think Adelaide can challenge the premiership contenders but on actually exposed form, we do not believe they are one of them.

This week: St Kilda at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7:35pm

9. COLLINGWOOD (2-3, 92.3%)

Last week: Ranked 9th, lost to Fremantle by 6 pts

They’re going to single-handedly bring down the AFL average score this year, aren’t they? With just 29 scoring shots in their past two games, and no triple-digit totals since Round 17 last year against Carlton, the Magpies are playing into the very simplistic narrative of ‘our defence is good, and so is Nick Daicos, and that’s it’. Problematically their luck has also turned – if they’re forcing every game to be close, you’d think the kings of the close game would be taking advantage. But everyone knows their tricks now, and so they’ve lost four of their last five games decided by a kick. If they’re going to defend their way to the top six they have to start actually beating the good sides. Though they play Carlton and Essendon next, so they don’t have to worry about that for a few weeks.

This week: Carlton at the MCG, Thursday 7:30pm

10. GWS GIANTS (2-3, 92.5%)

Last week: Ranked 11th, def Richmond by 56 pts

Can’t take a huge amount out of beating Richmond – though given how much trouble the Tigers gave them last year, maybe you can? It was still something we needed to see, just as a reminder of what the Giants can do when they’ve actually got most of their stars back out there. Aaron Cadman and Stephen Coniglio copping concussions, though, only adds to the feeling this season is a bit cursed. They’re having the Swans 2025 year where they’re a bit off and a lot injured; the difference being with a top 10, they could and should still pose a threat in September…

This week: Sydney at the SCG, Friday 7:50pm

11. MELBOURNE (3-2, 92.7%)

Last week: Ranked 10th, lost to Essendon by 45 pts

Well, a week after Melbourne beating Gold Coast felt like an example of them separating from the bottom six, they limply fall to an Essendon side that hadn’t won since the bicentennial. But we made sure to put a caveat on them last week when we said “They will have more bad days, like the Freo game a couple of weeks back.” And… well, that was a really bad day, though we’re surprised some of those bizarre late third-quarter calls didn’t get more airtime. They helped enable the Bombers’ game-winning run.

This week: Brisbane at the MCG, Sunday 3:15pm

12. ST KILDA (2-3, 91.2%)

Last week: Ranked 12th, def Port Adelaide by 14 pts

It’s a bit ridiculous that the Saints are one of the only two teams playing an actual away game in Gather Round (by facing a South Australian opponent, rather than it being neutral) AND also have to play in Adelaide two weeks in a row, isn’t it? At least they held on for an important win over the Power, on a night where they weren’t necessarily the best team out there… after a few close losses, they needed a close win to remain in the thick of the top 10 race. We still think they’re fighting the likes of Collingwood, Melbourne and GWS for a place in the wildcard round so with two of those sides losing, Gather Round was pretty good for Ross Lyon’s men.

This week: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7:35pm

13. NORTH MELBOURNE (3-2, 105.9%)

Last week: Ranked 13th, lost to Brisbane by 26 pts

They tried their best to make a mockery of our two-division claims from last week – Essendon beating a young, up-and-down Melbourne isn’t proof of anything, but the Kangaroos beating the premiers would’ve been. With Tristan Xerri playing they would’ve gotten even closer… it was, at a minimum, a game that made us reconsider our stance a little bit. We don’t want to overreact over one game but even in defeat it was probably the Roos’ best showing since Round 1, so it’s natural to have a bit of confidence in them heading into a very winnable game against winless Richmond. The month after that will be much more important – GWS away, Geelong away (feels like they play the Cats there every year?), Sydney at Marvel and then Adelaide away. It’d be great progress if they can pinch a win in there… if they can pinch two, we will admit we were wrong to write them off.

This week: Richmond at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 1:10pm

14. CARLTON (1-4, 76.6%)

Last week: Ranked 14th, lost to Adelaide by 28 pts

Thursday night was Carlton being frustrating in a different way than usual… because they definitely could’ve won that game? The Crows got a bit lucky with goalkicking especially early and made things look worse than they were. In the end it’s just another coulda-woulda-shoulda game from the Blues but we can’t quite give up on them yet; the idea of them beating a mid-table team like the Magpies isn’t totally absurd? On the plus side if you’re a neutral fan who’s sick of watching this team, they’ve only got… eight consecutive night games to come before the bye. Primetime Blues, baby, you’ve gotta love it. (Literally, you have got to love it, the AFL will make sure of it.)

This week: Collingwood at the MCG, Thursday 7:30pm

15. PORT ADELAIDE (2-3, 110.6%)

Last week: Ranked 15th, lost to St Kilda by 14 pts

Two things on a team we heavily considered moving up a slot. One – they probably should’ve won on Sunday night. The result should’ve flipped according to expected score and the weird Butters stuff didn’t help (come on, let’s be adults here). Two – Josh Carr either reads this column or our tweets because he mentioned the Division 1/Division 2 stuff in his post-game press conference! (Or more likely he saw something on social media, but we would rather take the more egotistical view.) Hi Josh. Hope you’re well. Did you know trains are free here at the moment? If you get bored on Saturday you could just walk over to Southern Cross and maybe go look at the new tunnel. It’s a good tunnel. You guys have that weird bus train thing in Adelaide don’t you? That seems fun.

This week: Hawthorn at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 4:15pm

16. WEST COAST EAGLES (2-3, 64.3%)

Last week: Ranked 16th, lost to Geelong by 46 pts

There’s a difference between looking totally outclassed against a top side (as West Coast did against Sydney), and just a regulation road loss to a top side (which West Coast copped against Geelong). They were fine for a while, and then they fell off a bit and the Cats exploited it. It happens. Obviously more wins would be more fun for Eagles fans to watch, but simply pedestrian performances like Sunday’s are a step forward in their own way. (Also… Willem Duursma is the Rising Star winner right now, yeah? Can we all agree on that?)

This week: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Sunday 5:10pm

17. ESSENDON (1-4, 76%)

Last week: Ranked 17th, def Melbourne by 45 pts

One and a half solid games of footy aren’t enough to push Essendon up the rankings but the gap between them and Richmond has grown quite a lot across their valiant second half against the Bulldogs, and their exciting drought-breaking win over Melbourne. Admittedly they always seem to play and beat Melbourne in Gather Round, and admittedly they got a couple of helpful calls late in the third term that assisted their game-winning surge, but something clearly feels different since the long break on the night of Easter Sunday. Could they yet turn into the simply mediocre side we expected them to be coming into the year, instead of being properly bad?

This week: Gold Coast at People First Stadium, Saturday 1:15pm

18. RICHMOND (0-5, 56.4%)

Last week: Ranked 18th, lost to GWS by 56 pts

The lone winless team after five rounds, it sure looks on the surface like the Tigers have taken a step backwards. But they are having West Coast’s 2025 (winless with injuries to key veterans who are supposed to be out there helping push the kids along), and West Coast is having their 2025 (pinching wins out of nowhere to be surprisingly high on the ladder but they’ll probably drop off later in the year). Do not watch the win total – watch the percentage. This time last year theirs was 59.6%, and West Coast was at 49.7%.

This week: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 1:10pm