Phillip Island’s MotoGP gods can’t be accused of lacking a sense of humour.
Even if you don’t like the joke.
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On Thursday, as MotoGP’s jetlagged international travelling roadshow unpacked and squeezed into the tight confines of the paddock, jackets and hoodies were swapped for caps and sunscreen. The sun was bright and constant, the wind a gentle zephyr. Bass Strait shimmered over the horizon of the southern edge of the circuit as you stared down Gardner Straight towards Doohan Corner and then Stoner Corner, the trio of turns named after Australia’s three premier-class race-winners at the Island illuminated by a fitting spotlight.
Why would MotoGP ever want to leave?
It’s a question, of course, we already know the answer to.
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Since the world’s best motorcycle racers last touched down on these shores 12 months ago, plenty has happened. Not to the Island track layout, mercifully, nor to the circuit’s facilities, regrettably. It’s why riders, mechanics, travelling media and assorted hangers-on lingered that little bit longer in the early spring sun on Thursday.
Since the 2025 running of the Australian GP – the penultimate year of a 10-year contract with no extension, forebodingly – much has changed.
In February, MotoGP announced that the Australian round of the world championship would be leaving Phillip Island and Victoria for South Australia and Adelaide, racing on a brand-new city parklands circuit that would also be used, with subtle tweaks, for Supercars. In August, the first renders of the proposed 15-turn, 4.13km, $96 million track were made public. It didn’t look like Phillip Island, because almost nowhere does, or can. Particularly on Thursday.
Sneering and sulking over state boundaries ensued – was this karmic payback for Victoria ‘stealing’ the Formula 1 Grand Prix from Adelaide three decades previously? More pertinently, Phillip Island’s repeated reluctance to make changes to improve the calendar’s worst facilities for the sport’s, arguably, best race track made the Island vulnerable.
MotoGP was keen to bring its sport, under new owners Liberty Media, to the people in a city-adjacent circuit, not a magical track surrounding a series of weather-beaten portacabins next to the ocean 150km from Melbourne, one accessed by a two-lane bridge from the San Remo mainland.
Ambition and complacency created opportunity.
That, though, is next year’s news, when Adelaide hosts the penultimate round of the 2027 season in November. For now, those on the inside, almost to a person on Thursday, were keen to savour what was and will be – for three more days – the best the Island has to offer.
“It will be so sad that next year we don’t come here,” KTM’s Pedro Acosta said, summing up the prevailing sentiment.
“In one side it will be beautiful for everyone, but in the other it will be so sad at the end. It’s one of the best atmospheres around the entire calendar, the fans are so close to us, and it’s one of those legendary tracks around the championship.”
Honda’s Luca Marini, under the weather with illness since the previous race in Indonesia, gestured towards the sun-kissed circuit with a grin.
“When the sun and the temperature is like this, it’s maybe the most beautiful track in the world,” he said.
Compatriot Fabio Di Giannantonio, who finished second at the Island last year for Ducati, felt similarly.
“I want to enjoy every inch of the track, every moment of this weekend, because we know that it’s the last one here … the last one ever,” he said.
Last year’s Phillip Island sprint winner, Aprilia’s Marco Bezzecchi, said the circuit elicited a physical reaction.
“I don’t have a super long career in the world championship, but since the first time I rode here, the emotions I felt … it’s a beautiful track, and with beautiful tracks, you always have very beautiful racing,” he said.
For all the sentiment and nostalgia of the coming days, Australia is a key pillar in what has become the equal-tightest title fight after 17 rounds in MotoGP history, Aprilia’s 2024 world champion Jorge Martin leading his 2025 successor Marc Marquez (Ducati) by two points, the equivalent of a lowly 14th-place Grand Prix result, with an uncertain finish line to the season only ramping up the intrigue.
After MotoGP bids farewell to the Island on Sunday night, there might be four rounds left, or three.
Qatar, already postponed once from April this year because of the unstable political situation in the Middle East, is scheduled for November 6-8 amid that same situation showing no sign of abating. Will there be 148 points still up for grabs after Sunday, or 111? Nobody knows, which sounds like an unsatisfactory pathway to a finale of a world championship, let alone the 1000cc MotoGP era, which has all the ingredients for a blockbuster conclusion.
Qatar, like Adelaide, can go into the ‘next week’ basket for now. At perhaps the most open race for the rest of the season – four different riders and three different manufacturers have won at the Island over the past four years, and Marquez is the only rider in the top six of the standings to have been victorious there – anticipation is high that anything can and probably will happen.
Will it be a fitting finale for the Island? On track, we can’t be sure. Above it? Did you need to ask?
Thursday’s sun – and a forecast touching an unheard of 30 degrees for opening practice on Friday – predictably gives way to rain, wind and challenging conditions over the weekend that will make the 4.445km ribbon of tarmac perched atop a cliff the sport’s sternest test, much as it has been since it debuted on the calendar in 1989, and became a permanent fixture from 1997.
At any time, and particularly on this time, Australia is a Grand Prix every rider wants to win. Add a simmering title fight, a local favourite in Jack Miller in his final home GP before his MotoGP journey ends and the sentiment of Sunday being the Island’s last lap, and the only guarantee is that it’ll be compelling.
Here’s your form guide and predictions for the 18th round of the 2026 MotoGP season, with the 27-lap Australian Grand Prix set for 2pm (AEDT) on Sunday after the 13-lap sprint race at 3pm on Saturday (AEDT).
AUSSIE WELCOMES RAIN AS ROADMAP TO GIANT-KILLING RESULT
Jack Miller says he’ll be “leaning on mother nature” in an attempt to uncork one final memorable result at his home Grand Prix, with weather forecasts for Sunday’s race having the potential to upset the form guide over 27 laps.
Miller, on an uncompetitive Yamaha where he, and stablemates Alex Rins and Toprak Razgatlioglu make up three of the final four spots in the full-time rider standings, hasn’t finished better than eighth (Hungary) in a Grand Prix in what has become his final season before moving to World Superbikes next year, but his prowess in the rain has the potential to make up for the shortfalls in his machinery.
PIT TALK PODCAST: Renita and Matt are joined by MotoGP world feed TV lead commentator Matt Birt to preview Phillip Island’s finale, discuss the brewing Martin vs Marquez title fight and whether Aprilia needs to employ team orders, and consider how rain forecast for the main race could lead to a fairy tale finish for Jack Miller. | Listen to Pit Talk | Watch the podcast on YouTube
The 31-year-old, a Moto3 race-winner at home 12 years ago and a podium finisher in MotoGP in 2019, when he came home third, will sport a green and gold-coloured special tribute helmet and livery for his final Phillip Island race, and grinned when it was put to him on Thursday that the race-day forecast could see him consider a Hail Mary win it or bin it approach.
“Is it ever not … I’m getting older, but not getting any wiser,” he laughed.
“Rain is going to be our biggest friend this weekend, and Phillip Island’s one of those tracks that even if you don’t get the bike working amazing, you can still make a difference. Our bike turns pretty good, so if we can get it wound up and turning alright, we should be in with a shout.
“Our weakest points are fourth, fifth and sixth (gears), and you use a lot of fourth, fifth and sixth around this joint … so that’s why I’m leaning on mother nature.
“It looks like Phillip Island’s going to give itself a proper send-off with some ever-changing conditions, but I’m not angry about that. A little bit of rain for us at the minute would be quite nice.”
Miller, who first raced at the track 17 years ago as he was coming through the Australian ranks before heading to Europe, said arriving at the Island for the final time in his world championship career had brought the end of his time in MotoGP into sharper focus.
“The emotions are obviously pretty high, looking back through the years,” he said.
“It’s probably one of the most iconic tracks on the calendar, and it’s produced arguably some of the best races we’ve ever seen in MotoGP.
“The first time I ever rode around here, 2009 after coming from smaller Australian tracks to a full-width Grand Prix track, my first thought was ‘what am I going to do with all of this f**king space?’
“On a MotoGP bike, riding around here is something particular. You’re basically dancing with the bike the whole way around, trying to manage the shaking, the wheelie, the way the bike feels in the wind … you can never fully attack and you’re playing with the bike the whole time, which makes it all the more fun to ride.”
‘MORE ROSSI THAN ROSSI: AUSSIE’S MARQUEZ CALL AS TITLE TENSIONS RISE
MotoGP race-winner turned Fox Sports analyst Chris Vermeulen feels Marc Marquez has become “more Valentino (Rossi) than Valentino was” as Ducati’s reigning MotoGP champion continues to fight largely a lone hand against an armada of Aprilia riders who have combined to win eight Grands Prix and six sprint races between them this season.
Marquez, who has six Grand Prix victories and no other main-race podiums in an injury-interrupted season where he sat 102 points behind series leader Marco Bezzecchi (Aprilia) after seven rounds, is two points behind Martin for the title lead coming into Australia, where he’s won four times, most recently in 2024.
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Vermeulen, who took his maiden premier-class world championship finish at the Island 20 years ago this weekend for Suzuki when he finished second to Marco Melandri (Honda), feels the combination of Marquez’s speed and grit while nursing a right shoulder injury that required in-season surgery makes him arguably more formidable than ever.
“Marc will do whatever it takes to win this championship,” Vermeulen said.
“It wouldn’t surprise me if he’s more injured than he’s letting on or that the injuries are affecting him more than he’s letting on, plus the Ducati isn’t great at the moment, so they’re not in a great position. But his way of adapting, managing situations in the middle of a race, he’s a very clever rider as well as a very talented one.
“In smarts on the bike, he’s equivalent to Valentino Rossi, and that was Valentino’s strength. He knew what was going on at all times. In terms of pure talent, Marc has more – but he has Rossi’s smarts as well. He’s being more Valentino than Valentino was.
“Marc’s not there to make friends, but he is there to win – and he’s open about it. He’s there for one reason and one reason only.”
Vermeulen feels Aprilia, with Martin (first), Bezzecchi (third) and Ai Ogura (fourth) in the standings, may need to invoke team orders to prevent their riders compromising the brand’s bigger goals as they bid to win the MotoGP rider’s title for the first time, with Australia coming one race after Bezzecchi and fellow Aprilia rider Raul Fernandez, last year’s Phillip Island winner, crashed out at the first corner of the sprint in Indonesia a fortnight ago.
“Marc has one-a-half working arms, is one of the oldest blokes in the championship and has an inferior bike, and he still puts himself right there,” Vermeulen said.
“The level he can take himself to when he’s battling for a world championship and what he’s willing to do when he has to put everything on the line just explains why he’s one of the best of all-time.
“Aprilia, if they want to do anything against Marc, their riders have to stop taking points off each other. They have the opportunity to win the riders’ and constructors’ world championships and they have the best motorcycle and some very good riders capable of winning it, but their biggest downfall might be if they continue to fight with each other.”
CRYSTAL BALL: FOUR FEARLESS PREDICTIONS FOR AUSTRALIA
Winner: Marc Marquez (Ducati). One of just two past Island winners in the top 10 of the standings and in a season where you need to be on a Ducati or Aprilia to consistently win, this round – plus Valencia – shape as the most likely tracks on the remaining schedule for Marquez to show his magic on anti-clockwise layouts. Add his record in tight title fights and a Sunday forecast that looks tailor-made for MotoGP’s foremost improvisor, and all the ingredients are there for the reigning world champion to win at the Island for a fifth time.
Closest challenger: Marco Bezzecchi (Aprilia). ‘Bez’ hasn’t won a sprint race since Australia last year, and probably would have done the double last year had he not had to serve a double long-lap penalty for knocking Marc Marquez off and ending the Spaniard’s season at the preceding round in Indonesia, opening the door for Aprilia stablemate Raul Fernandez to take his first MotoGP victory. The Italian and Marquez have combined to win 11 of the 17 full-distance races disputed this season, and while Bezzecchi remains an outside chance for the title, he’s more likely to have a say in who wins it than saluting himself.
Podium smoky: Fabio Di Giannantonio (Ducati). The Island’s fast and flowing nature should suit the nimble Aprilia down to the ground, which means it would be less surprising if 2025 winner Fernandez, 2026 series leader Jorge Martin or Martin’s future Yamaha teammate Ai Ogura step onto the rostrum’s lower steps than Ducati’s Di Giannantonio, who has gone off the boil since the season’s mid-point. But ‘Diggia’ has three top-four finishes at the Island since 2023, and Australia is the only GP where he’s earned multiple podiums in his five-year premier-class career.
Miller prospects: The Australian will take his final world championship laps of a circuit where a corner bears his name on Sunday, which will ensure some watery eyes for a rider never backward in expressing emotion, and very likely a tyre-shredding burnout at turn four as he completes his in-lap in front of the family and friends who’ll be part of an adoring crowd. Miller and Yamaha have become an afterthought the longer 2026 has gone, but at a track where a rider can transcend his machinery – Miller qualified on the front row last year with a lap of maximising every risk imaginable for 86 seconds – don’t be surprised to see a fifth Q2 appearance for the season on Saturday, at the very least. And if it rains …
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