Big 12 power rankings Week 9: Utah ascends to No. 1, Arizona climbs and Texas Tech drops as CFP scenarios come into view

Despite two undefeated teams losing Saturday and more end-of-game officiating controversies, the Big 12 emerged from Week 8 in stellar position to place more than one team in the College Football Playoff for the first time.

Shall we count the ways?

— It has four teams with fewer than two losses, which is more than the ACC and SEC. As we’ve seen over the years, the CFP selection committee cares about loss totals more than any other metric.

— It has six teams in the AP Top 25, which is more than the Big Ten. As we’ve seen over the years, the initial CFP rankings are strikingly similar to the AP poll released two days earlier.

— It has a 6-7 record against the other Power Four leagues, a better mark than those compiled by the ACC (6-11) and Big Ten (4-10). Within the Big 12’s collection of six wins is the result that matters most: BYU’s takedown of then-No. 2 Notre Dame, which provides the conference with a signature victory over a team likely to be in the playoff mix.

— It has two teams, Utah and BYU, comfortably in the top 12 of the strength-of-record (SOR) rankings published by ESPN that approximate the version used by the selection committee. SOR is one of the most important metrics in the committee’s toolbox.

All in all, the Big 12 could not have reasonably asked for a better situation as the stretch run arrives and CFP rankings season approaches. (The first reveal is Nov. 3.)

Now a conference hardwired for mayhem must avoid cannibalizing itself.

To a certain extent, carnage is unavoidable: There will be a loser when one-loss Arizona visits one-loss Texas Tech on Saturday. And when one-loss BYU heads to undefeated Utah the following Saturday. And when Utah faces Arizona the week after that.

But the SEC, Big Ten and ACC have eat-your-own affairs on the calendar, as well. The Big 12 cannot experience a spate of upsets. From this point forward, Utah (7-0), BYU (6-1), Texas Tech (6-1), Arizona (6-1), Houston (6-2) and Oklahoma State (5-2) must limit, if not avoid altogether, losses to everyone else.

The top must flourish and the bottom must flounder — it’s the only way to maximize CFP opportunities and rebuff recent history.

After all, the CFP selection committee is hardwired, too, and it has repeatedly displayed a strong inclination to shun the Big 12’s best teams when picking the seven at-large participants. It has favored two-loss ACC teams over two-loss Big 12 teams and even three-loss SEC teams over two-loss Big 12 teams.

What scenario creates the best outcome for the Big 12?

Here’s our three-step path to three bids based on current records and the upcoming schedule, which is not a true round-robin and could thus require complicated tiebreaker math:

— Texas Tech or Arizona wins the conference championship, securing an automatic bid to the CFP regardless of record and ranking.

— Utah defeats BYU in the Holy War and advances to Arlington, then suffers a close loss in the championship. As a one- or two-loss runner-up, the Utes are safely above the CFP cutline.

— BYU does not qualify for the championship game but ends the regular season with a 10-2 record and the victory over Notre Dame, making the Cougars the most attractive at-large candidate that doesn’t play for its league title.

That’s the path to three bids, folks: Utah as a 12-1 or 11-2 runner-up and BYU as a two-loss team that doesn’t reach Arlington.

Any other Big 12 team with two losses and no championship game appearance could lose the debate inside the committee room — and on ESPN’s studio shows — but the Cougars have that landmark victory on their resume.

There are numerous scenarios that produce two CFP bids for the Big 12 given the results produced so far. But in our view, only one outcome offers a chance for three: BYU at 10-2, boxed out of Arlington but impossible to ignore.

To the power rankings …

(All times Pacific)

1. Utah (7-0/4-0)

Result: beat Houston 21-13
Next up: at Cincinnati (12:45 p.m. on ESPN)
Comment: Credit the Utes for being one of three undefeated teams remaining (Miami and UCLA) and for making the plays when it counted against Houston. But they have played just two road games all season, and those were against lowly Iowa State and lowlier Colorado. So there’s plenty to prove. (Last week: 3)

2. BYU (6-1/3-1)

Result: lost at UCF 39-31 (OT)
Next up: vs. Arizona State (12:30 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: You could see the loss in Orlando coming the moment the conference schedule was announced in January. But we would never have guessed the fashion in which BYU would lose, not in a million years. What a wild finish. (Last week: 1)

3. Arizona (6-1/3-1)

Result: beat Iowa State 39-3
Next up: at Texas Tech (9 a.m. on ESPN)
Comment: Unpopular opinion, except in Tucson: If the Big 12 created a 16-team, single-elimination tournament to determine its champion, with all games at neutral sites, the Wildcats would be one of the last two standing. (Last week: 4)

4. Houston (6-2/3-2)

Result: lost at Utah 21-13
Next up: idle
Comment: The Big 12 home-road splits and schedule misses are bananas. The Cougars, for example, don’t have any home games against the quartet of Arizona, Texas Tech, BYU and Utah. They drew a straw so short as to be unseen by the naked eye. (Last week: 5)

5. Texas Tech (6-1/3-1)

Result: lost at Cincinnati 37-24
Next up: vs. Arizona (9 a.m. on ESPN)
Comment: Billionaire booster Cody Campbell vowed revenge in the aftermath of the Brendan Sorsby affair: “We’re not going to forget about that, and I don’t think they’ll forget about it either when we’re up by 40 and still throwing the ball in the fourth quarter. That’s where the retribution will come.” Turns out, the football gods were listening, and they don’t take kindly to acts of bravado. (Last week: 2)

6. Oklahoma State (5-2/3-1)

Result: beat Colorado 57-24
Next up: at Iowa State (4 p.m. on FS1)
Comment: Don’t ignore the Cowboys in the race for a berth in the conference championship. They have two challenging games remaining (Texas Tech and Arizona State) and three that they should win handily. (Last week: 6)

7. West Virginia (5-3/2-3)

Result: won at TCU 24-20
Next up: idle
Comment: Congrats to the Mountaineers for holding an FBS opponent to 20 points or less for the first time this season. Also, RichRod is doing RichRod things. (Last week: 7)

8. Arizona State (4-3/2-2)

Result: beat Kansas State 28-17
Next up: at BYU (12:30 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: For all the focus on the quarterback issues and relief work by freshman Jake Fette, the difference Saturday was Arizona State’s run defense (84 yards allowed) and the breakout game by tailback Cardae Mack (159 yards). A late-season surge depends on the turf, not the air. (Last week: 9)

9. UCF (4-3/2-2)

Result: beat BYU 39-31 (OT)
Next up: vs. Baylor (Friday at 4:30 p.m. on ESPN)
Comment: Had the Knights lost, coach Scott Frost would have been tarred and feathered for his game management in the final minutes. It was a masterclass effort in what not to do. (Last week: 11)

10. Cincinnati (5-2/2-2)

Result: beat Texas Tech 37-24
Next up: vs. Utah (12:45 p.m. on ESPN)
Comment: No team has a greater opportunity to impact the race than the Bearcats, who toppled Texas Tech and face Utah, Houston and BYU in the final weeks. (Last week: 12)

11. Baylor (4-3/2-2)

Result: lost at Kansas 25-24
Next up: at UCF (Friday at 4:30 p.m. on ESPN)
Comment: The Bears fired coach Dave Aranda on Sunday morning after his three years on the Hot Seat and two ghastly losses (to TCU and Kansas). He won’t be the last Big 12 coach dismissed this fall. (Last week: 8)

12. Kansas State (4-3/1-3)

Result: lost at Arizona State 28-17
Next up: at Colorado (11 a.m. on TNT)
Comment: We were initially confused upon seeing KSU’s quarterback deliver passes from the pocket that were accurate and on time, then remembered Avery Johnson was out with an injury. (Last week: 10)

13. Kansas (3-4/1-3)

Result: beat Baylor 25-24
Next up: at TCU (12:30 p.m. on FS1)
Comment: The bowl math is challenging but not impossible, especially if the Jayhawks manage to win in Fort Worth. (Everyone else wins in Fort Worth, so why not?) (Last week: 16)

14. Iowa State (3-4/1-3)

Result: lost at Arizona 39-3
Next up: vs. Oklahoma State (4 p.m. on FS1)
Comment: In all candor, we have no idea how to rank the teams on the Big 12’s bottom tier. We aren’t even sure how many there are. Some weeks, it feels like six or eight teams are dreadful. (Last week: 13)

15. TCU (3-4/1-3)

Result: lost to West Virginia 24-20
Next up: vs. Kansas (12:30 p.m. on FS1)
Comment: Now that Dave Aranda has been axed in Waco, TCU’s Sonny Dykes assumes the hottest seat in the conference, although he has company. (Last week: 14)

16. Colorado (2-5/0-4)

Result: lost at Oklahoma State 57-24
Next up: vs. Kansas State (11 a.m. on TNT)
Comment: Meet the company. (Last week: 15)

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