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Kick-Off 19:45 |
Date 25 Sept |
Venue Dexcom |
Live TG4 |
There probably isn’t a stranger game to open Connacht’s season. Two of last season’s URC play-off teams meet at Dexcom Stadium, but the sides actually taking the field are very different to the full-strength versions of Connacht and the Stormers.
Connacht finished eighth in the 2025/26 URC before losing away to Glasgow in the quarter-finals, while the Stormers finished third and reached the semi-finals.
International commitments have ripped through both squads, particularly the visitors, and the impact can be seen clearly in the betting market.
THE MARKET HAS MOVED
Connacht opened at around -1 on the handicap. By match day that had moved all the way to approximately -8 as the scale of the Stormers’ absences became clear.
1. The Missing Internationals
Both teams are significantly below full strength, although the Stormers have been particularly badly hit by Springbok duty.
2. Connacht By The Numbers
There was plenty to like about Connacht’s underlying numbers during the 2025/26 season. They wanted the ball, played at a high tempo and generated plenty of attacking opportunities.
Connacht averaged 53.6% possession, the highest figure of the four Irish provinces, while their average ball-in-play time of 38 minutes 41 seconds was also the highest.
They averaged 178.9 passes, 134.3 carries and 111.5 rucks per game, with an average ruck speed of just 3.5 seconds.
Their defensive workload was enormous too. Connacht averaged 197.2 tackles per game while maintaining an excellent 89.7% tackle success rate.
The scrum operated at 93.4%, although an 85.6% lineout success rate leaves obvious room for improvement.
3. Why Galway Matters
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5 Straight Home Wins |
1/5 Stormers Wins On Last 5 Irish Visits |
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33–24 Connacht Win In Cape Town |
4–2 URC H2H To Stormers |
Connacht enter Round 1 having won their last five home matches in all competitions, while the Stormers have won just once on their last five visits to Ireland.
The overall URC head-to-head favours the Stormers by four victories to two, but the most recent meeting went Connacht’s way.
18 APRIL 2026 • CAPE TOWN
DHL STORMERS
24 – 33
CONNACHT
Connacht ended the Stormers’ four-match winning run in the series.
4. Mack Hansen Is Back
CONNACHT • NUMBER 14
MACK HANSEN RETURNS
One of the biggest positives for Connacht is the return of Mack Hansen on the right wing, giving the backline an established international attacking threat.
There is also a Connacht debut for loosehead Francois van Wyk, while Academy back-rower Max Flynn is in line to make his senior debut from the bench.
With Ciarán Frawley unavailable, Josh Ioane starts at out-half alongside Ben Murphy, while Cathal Forde’s return gives Connacht another powerful option in midfield.
5. Connacht Starting XV
6. DHL Stormers Starting XV
7. Three Areas That Could Decide It
KEY BATTLE 01
The Connacht Scrum
A 93.4% scrum success rate last season gives Connacht a platform they should look to exploit against a Stormers pack missing several Springboks.
KEY BATTLE 02
Tempo & Breakdown
Connacht averaged 111.5 rucks per game at 3.5 seconds. If Ben Murphy and Josh Ioane can generate that sort of tempo, the reshuffled Stormers defence could face an enormous workload.
KEY BATTLE 03
Take The Chances
The 44.8% successful 22-entry figure is the obvious area for improvement. Connacht cannot spend long periods on top and allow the Stormers to escape without conceding points.
⚠️ Don’t Mistake This For A Weak Stormers XV
Warrick Gelant, Seabelo Senatla, Leolin Zas, Ruhan Nel, Evan Roos, Hacjivah Dayimani and JD Schickerling give the visitors plenty of experience and attacking quality.
Roos is a particularly obvious danger after scoring 12 URC tries last season.
8. Match Officials
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REFEREE Sam Grove-White |
AR1 Eoghan Cross |
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AR2 Tomas O’Sullivan |
TMO Dave Sutherland |
Broadcast: TG4, Premier Sports, SuperSport, URC.tv and FloRugby. Betting markets can move before kick-off. Gamble responsibly.
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