The Hotline mailbag publishes weekly. Send questions to wilnerhotline@
In case you missed it, last week’s mailbag examined the finances behind College Football Playoff expansion: How much new revenue is needed for the event to double in size?
Oregon has been active this offseason in moving non-conference games, to the point where the Ducks only have one future power conference matchup: They host Texas Tech in 2033. Is this in reaction to the Big Ten looking at 10 conference games? — Will D
True, Oregon and Baylor mutually agreed this summer to cancel their home-and-home series that was set for 2027-28. In its place, the Ducks added Coastal Carolina for 2027 and Sacramento State for 2028.
Also, true: The Ducks are not currently scheduled to face a Power Four opponent until 2033 (Texas Tech).
The situation is deeply unfortunate. Marquee non-conference matchups are terrific theatre for the sport. But Oregon isn’t alone in filling its upcoming schedules with second- and third-rate foes.
In fact, Washington and USC have done the same.
The three biggest football brands on the West Coast — the three biggest brands west of the Rockies — have all opted for creampuffs over heavyweights.
The contrast to pre-realignment schedules is stark.
In the 2021 season alone, Oregon visited Ohio State, Washington faced Michigan and USC played Notre Dame for a triple-dose of scheduling delight for college football fans in the region.
Granted, the Ducks face a power conference opponent this season, Oklahoma State, to conclude a home-and-home series. But it’s not the duel anyone expected when the schools agreed to the series in 2018: The Cowboys are coming off two dreadful seasons and fired Mike Gundy. (We can’t fault the Ducks for that.)
But starting next season, the non-conference lineups are all-but-barren for the three West Coast powers, with just one Power Four opponent scheduled: the Huskies will visit Tennessee in 2029.
That landscape could change — you’ll notice there are several openings that must be filled — but here’s the lineup, according to FBschedules.com and the team websites.
2027
Oregon: vs. Eastern Washington, vs. Western Kentucky, vs. Coastal Carolina
USC: vs. UNLV, vs. Nevada (one opening)
Washington: vs. Fresno State, vs. Portland State, at Washington State
2028
Oregon: at Oregon State, vs. Sacramento State, vs. North Dakota State
USC: vs. Fresno State (two openings)
Washington: vs. Eastern Washington, vs. UNLV, vs. Washington State
2029
Oregon: vs. Portland State, vs. Utah State, vs. Oregon State
USC: none scheduled (three openings)
Washington: at Tennessee, vs. Boise State (one opening)
The 2030s will bring a slight uptick with the return of the USC-Notre Dame series. Also, Washington hosts Tennessee and, as noted, Oregon is scheduled to face Texas Tech.
But there isn’t much to excite fans in the short term.
To be fair, the Ducks, Huskies and Trojans are not entirely to blame — well, the Duck and Huskies are not. USC’s series with Notre Dame has been paused because the Trojans refused to continue playing in South Bend in October every other year.
The frustrating reality: Realignment has played a massive role in the deterioration of non-conference schedules. The West Coast schools are wary of flying across the country for matchups in early September knowing they will have to make several trips for conference play. Also, many of the duels we’d love to watch as non-conference affairs (e.g., Oregon vs. Ohio State and Washington vs. Michigan) are now conference games.
Meanwhile, the best of the SEC have always been hesitant to visit the Pacific Northwest given the long flight and condensed turnaround time once they return home. Now that the SEC has nine conference games, the odds of Alabama, LSU or Georgia adding high-profile matchups in September are just this side of zero. (Don’t be surprised if the Washington-Tennessee series gets canceled.)
Another factor: rivalry games. The Apple Cup is scheduled through the 2028 season, while the Civil War is on pause but returns in 2028. Each series consumes one of the three non-conference dates available each fall for Washington and Oregon. And when those games are on the road, the Huskies and Ducks have limited flexibility for other non-conference games because they need seven home dates to make the budgets work.
Also, in contrast to the ACC, Big 12 and SEC, the Big Ten does not require its teams to schedule at least 10 power conference opponents (nine in league play, plus one non-conference matchup). Could that change? Perhaps.
Now, let’s address the woolly mammoth in the schedule-making room: Access to the College Football Playoff.
Schools everywhere are in wait-and-see mode. Will the playoff expand to 16 or 24 teams or stand on 12? Will the selection process be adjusted to better reward schedule strength? If the field size expands, will the Big Ten and SEC create an annual crossover series during the regular season?
The answers will have a massive impact on scheduling strategy throughout the power conferences, but we might not have clarity for months considering the ongoing stalemate over the CFP’s future format.
To this point, the CFP selection process seemingly has prioritized loss totals over schedule strength. The end-of-season rankings last year effectively listed 12 teams in order of losses, with undefeated Indiana on top, followed by the one-loss teams, then the two-loss teams, etc.
Everyone fears Texas Syndrome: The three-loss Longhorns seemingly would have made the CFP last season if they had scheduled and beaten a creampuff instead of losing at Ohio State in the opener.
Until the CFP’s future format and selection process are confirmed, there will be precious few marquee matchups scheduled.
And even if the CFP makes satisfactory adjustments, it could be years before we see palpable benefits on the West Coast. The Ducks and Huskies have limited openings available, at least until the 2030s.
You have Texas Tech ranked 23rd nationally, which is the lowest of any AP voter. What are you thinking? Please explain yourself! — @WestTex_Cactus
Glad you asked and always happy to answer questions about my AP ballot, whether it’s for the preseason poll or the in-season version.
Although I have not looked at the breakdown, news that the Red Raiders are lower on my ballot than any of the other 68 comes as no surprise: I figured they would be in the No. 10-to-15 range on most ballots, so 23rd would indeed be the low end.
To be clear, my preseason ballot reflects where I believe teams will finish in the end-of-season AP rankings, so the No. 23 position suggests three or four losses for the Red Raiders, including the postseason.
That’s undoubtedly more than most voters foresee for Texas Tech given the talented, high-priced roster and soft schedule. But money doesn’t guarantee wins and, as noted in the column explaining my ballot, I expect the unexpected for coach Joey McGuire and Co.
Call it poor mojo, bad luck or the wrath of the football gods, I envision a barrage of hurdles for the Red Raiders that cannot be easily explained or predicted.
Sometimes, things go wrong for teams that have lofty goals and loads of talent. Not every team with playoff aspirations reaches its full potential. Every year, there are upside surprises and downside disappointments.
This much is certain: Once the season begins, my ballot will be adjusted on a weekly basis to reflect the results. I make every effort to untether the in-season editions from the August submission.
And for the record, I believe Notre Dame will win the title and have the Irish No. 1 on my preseason ballot.
With Jayden Daniels asking LSU not to use his name/image/likeness, how are the NIL contracts written so that a college can use a player’s NIL after they leave? — @draywilson29
First, let’s state for the record that Daniels and his inner circle — with his mother, Regina Jackson, leading the charge — badly misplayed their hand. The formal request that LSU cease using his NIL was nothing short of a PR nightmare that will undermine his brand. (Heck, even the Ivy League trolled Daniels on social media.)
There are many variations of NIL deals. According to The Athletic, LSU’s contract with Daniels “granted the school a 180-day grace period after its expiration or termination to use Daniels’ likeness.”
But don’t forget: LSU has plenty of options for replacing Daniels in whatever future marketing material it produces.
For instance, the Tigers could simply remove Daniels’ name (or image) and insert that of Joe Burrow who, like Daniels, won the Heisman Trophy but, unlike Daniels, also won the national championship.
That’s a trade LSU won’t mind making.
I’ve become a big fan of expanding the College Football Playoff. A postseason format that offers access to 17 percent of the teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision (24 of 138) seems to make sense compared to the current 8 percent with the 12-team CFP. Where does it say that FBS is a two tier league? — JR
That is precisely the pro-expansion argument made by many executives across the FBS. And they are quick to compare the situation to basketball, where 76 of 365 teams will qualify for the NCAA Tournament next spring (21 percent).
More access is always better, right? Not in this case, in our opinion.
Two issues are worth noting:
— Doubling the size of the postseason could have a dramatic impact on the regular season, which is the lifeblood of college football to a greater extent than in any other sport.
Sure, more two- and three-loss teams would have a path into the CFP, but late-season showdowns between top-10 teams would lose significance if both participants are assured of qualifying for an engorged playoff.
— Expansion won’t create more access for teams across the FBS because the additional spots invariably would be filled by the Big Ten and SEC and, to a lesser extent, the ACC and Big 12.
The 70 schools that make up the Group of Six will have one automatic bid in the expanded format, just as they have now. Their participation will be cut from 1/12th of the field to 1/24th.
There is nothing egalitarian about the Big Ten’s expansion plan. It’s simply a rich-get-richer approach.
For the record, the Hotline is not opposed to a 24-team field, but we are opposed to adopting the 24-team field now.
It’s too soon. Let’s see how the 12-team event unfolds for a few years and gather data on the impact expansion might have on the regular season.
Is the NCAA going to divide the Football Bowl Subdivision? If so, when do you see this happening? — H Hughes
We don’t envision the NCAA serving as the prime mover in whatever division might unfold in coming years. The conferences would drive the split, with the SEC and Big Ten taking the lead.
In fact, their commissioners have said as much.
Both the Big Ten’s Tony Petitti and the SEC’s Greg Sankey have discussed (in public settings) the potential for their leagues to create self-governing operations outside of the NCAA umbrella, all while continuing to compete against other leagues.
More than a decade ago, the Division I board of directors voted 16-2 in favor of allowing the Big Ten, SEC, ACC, Big 12 and Pac-12 — officially, they were called the Autonomy Five; commonly, they were known as the Power Five — to create their own rules specific to cost-of-attendance, coaching staff sizes and other issues.
The Power Five became the Power Four when the Pac-12 imploded. And for all practical purposes, the Power Four is now the Big Two and the Middle Two. The ACC and Big 12 have been relegated to second-tier status financially, competitively and, with regard to control of the College Football Playoff, legally.
At this point, the NCAA would be powerless to prevent the SEC and Big Ten from crafting their own rules related to roster compensation, compliance and enforcement.
However, the industry of college sports would be thoroughly entertained by the Big Two attempting to punish their own schools for violating conference rules. Pass the popcorn, please.
What was the final settlement that the Pac-12 ended up paying the Mountain West for the scheduling agreement for football in 2024? — @Jimmy0726
Nobody knows.
Actually, let’s rephrase that: Officially, nobody knows. The settlement terms of the poaching penalty lawsuit filed by the Pac-12 against the Mountain West in the fall of 2024 have not been made public (and may not ever become public).
But we know the five departed Mountain West schools (Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State) owe their former conference a total of $49 million from the exit-fee lawsuit, per a Sportico report.
And we know, based on sources, that both Washington State and Oregon State owe the Mountain West somewhere in the $10 million to $12 million in the poaching penalty case.
The combined total of $71 million (approximately) owed to the Mountain West is less than half the amount ($155 million) that was at stake in the two cases.
In football terms, it appears the Mountain West lost by three touchdowns. But we suspect the situation is even worse for the conference.
Why? Because according to two sources, the settlement terms were effectively identical to the global mediation offer that was on the table in the summer of 2025 — an offer the Mountain West declined.
Which means the conference paid its outside legal counsel (Willkie Farr & Gallagher LLP) over the course of a year for … nothing.
If we include those billable hours in the final calculation, the take-home pay is less than $71 million.
Put on your prediction hat: What happens to college football in the next five or 10 years? How different will it be? — Rico T
We published this question a few weeks ago and promised a response would be forthcoming. That remains the case, but it’s too soon.
So much of the future depends on the present — specifically, on the fate of the Protect College Sports Act which, in its current form, includes provisions that limit conference realignment and prevent the formation of a super league.
If the PCSA fizzles, one trajectory will emerge.
If it passes with those provisions intact, another endgame will materialize.
We should have an answer sometime this fall. The Senate returns in the middle of September and is expected to vote on the bill. But the path through the House of Representatives will be treacherous.
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