To win his maiden championship this weekend, Andrea Kimi Antonelli doesn’t need to do much more than get out of bed and turn up to the track.
On Thursday, though, he couldn’t even manage that.
Antonelli called in sick with a viral infection and was excused from his usual pre-race media duties. Mercedes expects him to be well enough to participate in practice tomorrow.
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But even if he doesn’t, Antonelli is in such a commanding position that it might not make a difference anyway.
With a title lead of 123 points, he barely has to lift a finger to complete his championship challenge.
With only 100 points up for grabs at the end of the weekend, ninth place will guarantee him the title regardless of where George Russell and Lewis Hamilton finish.
If Russell were to win, Antonelli would need that ninth place. If Hamilton were to win, 10th place would be enough.
If neither driver wins this weekend’s Mexico City Grand Prix, Antonelli can park up early and get on the tequilas — although in his state, he might be better advised to get on the paracetamols.
Antonelli edges closer to F1 world title | 03:54
WHO’S FAVOURITE IN MEXICO?
Whether either Russell or Hamilton would be in a position to win this race is up for debate given the extreme nature of this circuit.
Mexico City is situated 2.2km above sea level, where the air is around a quarter less dense.
That has several effects on car performance.
The car produces around 25 per cent less downforce. Teams tend to bring their highest downforce packages as though they were preparing for Monaco, but they’ll end up with less downforce than they would normally have for Monza, the slipperiest circuit on the calendar. The need to boost cooling in the rare air also negatively affects aero performance.
That could be a difficult combination for Mercedes, which is still trying to understand its Malaysia-spec upgrade package.
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Despite Antonelli’s victory in the United States last week, the team says the new aero kit has considerably narrowed the set-up window, which is part of the reason Russell struggled so badly relative to his teammate in Austin.
Having to make considerable and unusual adjustments could throw the car out of its sweet spot for both drivers.
“It’s been a little bit strange for us since we brought this package to the car,” Russell said. “Obviously we first brought it in Malaysia, and it was a pretty tough weekend for the two of us.
“Then Kimi had it on in Singapore — again, not a straightforward weekend. I had it back on in Austin and struggled a lot on my side, and he obviously had a very, very strong race.
“We are seeing some things in the characteristics that just show that it performed in a very narrow window, so we need to try and widen that.
“Obviously, from my side, I need to try and focus on getting into that window.”
There’s another reason that Mercedes thinks it shouldn’t be considered the favourite too — and it could be good news for Ferrari.
COULD THIS BE A FERRARI ENGINE TRACK?
Racing at high altitude with a naturally aspirated engine would mean a loss of power commensurate with the reduced air density. This effect is less pronounced today, however, because the turbocharger maintains air pressure for the internal combustion engine, though there is still some loss.
It’s here that the different decisions around turbo size made by the manufacturers at the start of the season will make a bigger difference than usual — especially under these regulations.
A smaller turbo is generally beneficial because it gets up to speed quicker at this altitude. That’s particularly important this year, when there is no MGU-H pre-spooling the turbo. The removal of the MGU-H is what has reintroduced turbo lag to F1 and has also triggered the unusual new high-revving start procedure.
Ferrari reportedly has the smallest turbo and could be poised to reap the rewards. Despite its engine package being weak at sea level, this might be the one race at which it has some genuine strengths — particularly given it’ll be packaged in what consensus says is the best aerodynamics on the grid.
Is it enough to make Ferrari favourite?
“Honestly, I think it’s getting very close, and we have good momentum,” Charles Leclerc said. “With Singapore and Austin as well, we’ve maximised our potential, and I was relatively happy with the pace we’ve shown.
“Whether we are the favourites for this weekend, I don’t fully agree — I think Mercedes remain the favourites wherever we go. Red Bull are very, very strong as well recently.
“But if we maximise everything we have, then I hope it can be a great weekend for us.
“As we’ve seen, I think the optimisation of our package is what will eventually make the most difference. It’s so difficult to put everything in the right window coming into qualifying that, if we manage to do so, I think we’ve got a chance here.”
BOTTAS AND LAWSON SWEAT ON THEIR SEATS AS ROOKIES GET OUTINGS
Valtteri Bottas also missed media day with illness, and like Antonelli, this could be a big weekend for the Finn — though for completely different reasons.
Cadillac is weighing up whether to break Bottas’s contract a year early and promote American development driver Colton Herta.
Herta will take Bottas’s car in FP1, and if he completes the session, he will earn his 40th superlicence point, which will qualify him to compete in Formula 1 next year.
The former IndyCar star made the switch to Formula 2 this year to prepare for his chance, and though his season has been underwhelming — his 19th in the standings after having scored points just five times, with a best finish of fifth — Cadillac has been more impressed by his work in the F1 environment, including in FP1 sessions and private testing.
The team remains coy, but Sergio Pérez, who signed a long-term deal with Cadillac this week, gave away that a decision was being mulled over.
“It will be down to Marcin (Budkowski, team principal) to decide who they want in the car,” he said.
“(He) will be looking at all the data and information, and he will ultimately make that decision based on what he thinks is best for the future of the team.
“Obviously we’re in a period where we need to evolve extremely quickly. The next three or four months are really crucial in our preparation. I think it’s down to him.”
Liam Lawson might also be feeling the pressure in FP1 when he hands his car over to Red Bull junior Nikola Tsolov, who is being considered for a full-time debut next year that would end the Kiwi’s career.
Some of the heat appears to have left that situation, however, in part because Tsolov’s early title lead has been lost and in part because Lawson has been so good this year.
Lawson is a clear ninth in the standings as the best midfield driver. He’s 35 points clear of the next-best Pierre Gasly, and he has more than twice the score of teammate Arvid Lindblad.
Getting the chop would be extremely rough for Lawson, particularly given the way Red Bull mishandled his rookie season last year.
The decision comes down to whether Red Bull wants to continue having Racing Bulls churn through young guns at a rapid rate, as per the days of Helmut Marko, or whether it wants the team to stand on its own as more than just a speculative feeder of talent to Red Bull Racing.
It seems to be moving towards the latter, a decision that might be helped by the fact Isack Hadjar has stood up to the challenge of being Max Verstappen’s teammate so well.
That would be good news for Lawson — but he would know as well as anyone that a Red Bull deal isn’t done until it’s signed and announced.
ALONSO DOUBLES DOWN ON ‘LOW QUALITY’ COMMENTS
Fernando Alonso stole headlines after last week’s US Grand Prix with a particularly uncharitable description of the Formula 1 grid.
Alonso was involved in a first-lap incident with Alex Albon that left him with a damaged car. He said he would have scored points without it; instead he finished 16th.
“When you start at the back, there is always this risk,” Alonso said, per Autosport. “I think the quality of the drivers in the lower third of the grid is very low, as we saw today with Alex, so I think we need to improve the car and start a little bit higher up.”
In classic Alonso fashion, he went on to describe the race as “by far” the best of his season.
The lower third of the grid comprises Sergio Pérez, Valtteri Bottas, Lance Stroll, Albon, Carlos Sainz, Esteban Ocon and — you guess it — Alonso.
Presumably Alonso wouldn’t include himself in the bottom third. His employment contract with Aston Martin would also preclude him from listing Stroll, the son of the team’s billionaire owner, on that list.
He doubled down on that assertion in Mexico City, though he refused to say how many drivers he had in mind as being low in quality.
“I’m not specific about the number of them, but I think we all know which ones we are talking about and which ones felt targeted by that comment,“ he said.
“But it’s not only Austin. Unfortunately I’ve been in that part of the race for the whole season, so I see things from the car that I cannot tell you.”
Alonso did give some ground in saying that the cars at the back of the grid are generally harder to drive, leading to more accidents on the first lap, but he said that “all these kinds of things are not necessary, especially if you are fighting for nothing at the back of the grid”.
Unsurprisingly, Alonso’s rivals gave his assessment of the grid short shrift.
“I don’t agree; it’s as simple as that,” Albon said, per The Race. “I think the level is strong up and down the grid.
“I think 10 to 15 years ago the back half of the grid wasn’t the way it is now. We don’t have pay drivers anymore.”
Pierre Gasly said “the level on the grid is probably one of the highest” he’s seen in his career, while Oliver Bearman said the assessment was “slightly harsh”.
Paddock consensus sides with Alonso’s rivals. Because the teams are all financially healthy under the cost cap, the era of the pay driver — hired just to boost the bottom line — is over. Every driver has their seat because they bring competitive value to their team.
The only possible exception, of course, is Stroll, who appears to have a job for life at his father’s team. Though it’s important to point out Stroll won titles in Italian Formula 4, the Toyota Racing Series and Formula 3 — ahead of George Russell — on his way to F1, making him far from unqualified to have got his chance in the top category.
Whether he would still be in Formula 1 in any other situation, however, is another question.
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