Welcome the Hotline’s weekly picks against the point spread, published Thursdays throughout the regular season with a focus on the top games nationally and the most intriguing matchups across the West. The betting lines are courtesy of VegasInsider.com unless noted otherwise. Games involving FCS teams are not included. Last week, I was 4-8: a rough start, for sure. Picks are for entertainment purposes only … unless they aren’t.
Arizona State coach Kenny Dillingham has proven himself an expert in developing quarterbacks during his three seasons in Tempe. His program also has performed exceedingly well as a road underdog. Those matters are linked, of course, and the latest test of their interconnectivity comes Saturday.
The Sun Devils are 14.5-point underdogs at Texas A&M. How quarterback Cutter Boley performs will determine whether they are within striking range of the 10th-ranked Aggies in the fourth quarter — and, by extension, whether the Big 12 is positioned to collect what would be a first-class victory.
To this point, Dillingham has excelled in comparable situations: He’s 4-1 against the spread as a double-digit underdog away from home since taking charge of his alma mater.
The Sun Devils covered the spread as double-digit underdogs at Cal, Washington and UCLA in 2023 — they beat the Bruins straight up, in fact — and against Texas in the epic 2024 College Football Playoff quarterfinal. The lone failure to cover was at Utah three years ago.
Boley has started one game for the Sun Devils, the 70-7 home victory over Morgan State last weekend that will have zero relevance Saturday morning. In College Station, he will face a talented, well-coached defense and the din generated by 102,000 fans.
But Boley has experience with SEC crowds from his two-year tenure at Kentucky. The key numbers aren’t stellar: He threw five touchdowns and nine interceptions in road games against South Carolina, Georgia, Auburn, Vanderbilt, Florida and Texas.
Which brings us to the Dillingham-as-QB-whisperer component.
Can he conjure a crisp, efficient performance from Boley that looks nothing like the junior’s previous showings in SEC stadiums?
If so, the Sun Devils will be positioned to record a major upset that would both elevate their profile and do wonders for the Big 12, which desperately needs a breakthrough victory in one of several Week 2 matchups against SEC and Big Ten opponents.
Non-conference success, especially against the two leagues that dominate the sport, could lead to the Big 12 placing an at-large team in the College Football Playoff.
Someone needs to step forward. Given Dillingham’s knack for upside surprises, Arizona State is an option worth monitoring.
To the Week 2 picks …
(All times Pacific)
Oregon (-18.5) at Oklahoma State
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on ESPN
Comment: The Ducks didn’t look like a team that can win the national championship in their narrow victory over Boise State, but the Cowboys didn’t look like a team that can win any games in their loss to Tulsa. We’ve seen this script from the Ducks before. Dan Lanning will have them ready to roll. Pick: Oregon
Oklahoma (+2.5) at Michigan
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on Fox
Comment: It was bad enough that Michigan needed a controversial extra second to beat Western Michigan. But quarterback Bryce Underwood isn’t responding well to the criticism, including a warning from coach Kyle Whittingham that his play must improve. Meanwhile, the Sooners are loaded on defense. Pick: Oklahoma
Arizona State (+14.5) at Texas A&M
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on ABC
Comment: The Texas heat won’t be a problem for the Sun Devils, but the Kyle Field crowd could cause communication problems early. We expect a slow start and strong finish from the visitors. And for the game to be in doubt with five minutes remaining. Pick: Arizona State
Washington State (+18.5) at Kansas State
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on TNT
Comment: The logistics are daunting for WSU, which played a taxing game Sunday in Seattle and is traveling halfway across the country — on a short week, no less — to play an early (body clock) game in the heat against a host that cruised to victory last weekend. Pick: Kansas State
Utah State (+26.5) at Washington
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on Big Ten Network
Comment: If the Huskies play the way they did in the Apple Cup, they will win by 20. If they play better than they did in the Apple Cup, they will win by 40. Or didn’t you notice that Utah State lost at home to Idaho State by double digits? Yikes. Pick: Washington
Arizona (+7.5) at BYU
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on Fox
Comment: This has the potential to be one of the best games of the day, anywhere. After all, the teams went to double overtime in Tucson 11 months ago, and the competitive balance hasn’t changed significantly. The Cougars pose a supreme test of Arizona’s defensive front, which couldn’t stop BYU’s ground game (258 yards) last year. The winner jumps to the head of the line in the Big 12 title race. Pick: BYU
Cal (+3.5) at Syracuse
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on ACC Network
Comment: A demoralizing loss in the opener, followed by a long trip to face a low-profile opponent that generates zero urgency? Feels like a trap game for the Bears, even though winless teams with new coaches should not be in position to get trapped. Pick: Syracuse
Memphis (+8.5) at Boise State
Kickoff: 3 p.m. on USA Network
Comment: No game in Week 2 carries greater playoff implications, not even the Texas-Ohio State showdown. After all, there is only one playoff berth reserved for the best team in the Group of Five, and the winner in Boise instantly becomes the favorite. The Broncos looked like a CFP team last weekend at Oregon. They need a comparable performance Saturday. Pick: Memphis
San Diego State (+12.5) at UCLA
Kickoff: 4:15 p.m. on Big Ten Network
Comment: The Bruins are soaring with confidence after opening the Bob Chesney era with a convincing victory at Cal. Do the Aztecs have enough on the lines of scrimmage to stand tall for 60 minutes? Is SDSU quarterback Jayden Denegal capable of an error-free game against a Big Ten defense? We aren’t convinced on either front. Pick: UCLA
Ohio State (+1.5) at Texas
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on ABC
Comment: The best non-conference duel of the season is a rematch of Ohio State’s 14-7 victory last year. That was the season opener for both teams, and Texas quarterback Arch Manning looked rattled throughout. He should be sharper this time against a reloading Buckeyes defense. Enjoy it, folks. If the playoff expands to 24 teams next year, these blue-blood showdowns will have far lower stakes. Pick: Texas
Texas Tech (+26.5) at Oregon State
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on CBS
Comment: The Beavers were grittier than expected in their opener under new coach JaMarcus Shepard, a 13-point loss at Houston. Meanwhile, Texas Tech was slightly less than overwhelming against Abilene Christian. If OSU quarterback Braden Atkinson avoids major mistakes, the Red Raiders could have trouble clearing the high bar set by the oddsmakers. Pick: Oregon State
Arkansas (+12.5) at Utah
Kickoff: 7:15 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: One of the few Big 12 vs. SEC matchups this season should not be competitive in the fourth quarter: The Utes have too many playmakers for Arkansas, which is rebuilding under coach Ryan Silverfield and lacks the high-end talent present on so many SEC rosters. If the Utes win, they should be undefeated entering the back half of the schedule in late October. Pick: Utah
Straight-up winners: Oregon, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Washington, BYU, Syracuse, Boise State, UCLA, Texas, Texas Tech and Utah
Five-star special: Kansas State. We commend Washington State for agreeing to play the Apple Cup on a Sunday. But goodness, they are facing some serious logistical challenges with the short turnaround and lengthy trip.
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The post Picks of the week: Texas edges Ohio State, Oregon rolls and Arizona State looks to continue road dog success in the din of Texas A&M first appeared on Sports360AZ.
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