Premiership window predictions for 2027, how close all clubs are to a flag, finals, top eight, bottom four, analysis

With a new AFL season comes recalibrated expectations, and there’s a range of forecasts for the 18 clubs ahead of the 2026 campaign.

Be it a surge up the ladder, a nosedive, or more of the same, the AFL hierarchy is already taking shape following October’s player movement period.

Some clubs are at least a few years away from challenging, while others are capable of silverware in the short term. But for several, their flag timeline is unclear.

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Foxfooty.com.au analyses each club’s premiership window ahead of the 2026 season.

ADELAIDE CROWS

Premiership window: 2027-2030

The feeling around Adelaide has shifted considerably since this time last year, when the Crows were looking to build on a mightily promising 2025 minor premiership. They finished sixth this year in what felt like a rather indifferent campaign, and while they finally got over their finals hurdle by beating the wildcard-prevailing Bulldogs on elimination weekend, they were thoroughly outclassed the next week by eventual premiers Brisbane. There are still more questions than answers as it pertains to Matthew Nicks’ seven-year tenure, and he loses Taylor Walker and Jordon Butts without much coming in for 2027 – and cops another top-six fixture. All that said, though, and despite the lack of a third star in the middle of the ground, the core of this list isn’t going anywhere in a hurry, and there’s high upside with the likes of Dan Curtin and Sid Draper. Luring Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera next year would go a long way to extending their window.

BRISBANE LIONS

Premiership window: 2027-2030

In the case of the Lions, it’s not a matter of whether they’re in the premiership window — it’s how long they can stay in it, particularly with a new coach replacing Chris Fagan, and Lachie Neale the big outgoing name. But with Will Ashcroft and Logan Morris barely scraping the peak of their powers, and co-captains Harris Andrews, Josh Dunkley and Hugh McCluggage showing no signs of slowing down, Brisbane isn’t going anywhere in a hurry. Former academy gun Dan Annable could be the beneficiary of Neale’s exit, while fellow graduate Caylen Murray is set to arrive in the draft to add more dash to a half-backline already boasting Dayne Zorko and Darcy Wilmot. The Lions lost some depth with Sam Marshall and Keidean Coleman seeking other opportunities, but this is a side we should still be talking about at the pointy end for years to come.

CARLTON

Premiership window: 2027-2028

Last year, we said the Blues could be contending for silverware as early as 2028. That still looks like an achievable mark after their list proved its finals credentials in the second half of the season. They believe they have their coach of the future, and their offseason additions of Joel Amartey and Lachie Whitfield suggest they don’t think they’re far off having a proper tilt. And they will next month add the prodigious Cody Walker to a highly potent young core headlined by Jagga Smith and Harry Dean – who could extend their window. But there was an evident class gap when Carlton was run off the MCG by Geelong in this year’s semi-final, showing there’s still a ways to go before they can be considered genuine contenders in a top-heavy competition. They go into next year with currently the third-oldest list in the league, though, suggesting the time might be now, in Patrick Cripps’ last few years.

COLLINGWOOD

Premiership window: 2027

Provided 30-plus-year-old stars Darcy Moore and Jamie Elliott can get their bodies right, this is a Collingwood side that will have added some serious talent for the 2027 season. Lachie Neale is the headline arrival, while Jesse Hogan shapes as a low-cost addition that could yield a great return on investment. The Magpies clearly think they can contend for a premiership next year with Brownlow medallist Nick Daicos on the front line, even after stalwarts Scott Pendlebury and Steele Sidebottom departed. Because unlike in more recent seasons, we have evidence that there’s a young Collingwood core developing alongside the elder statesmen. Ed Allan, Sam Swadling, Angus Anderson, Charlie West and Will Hayes have shown considerable long-term promise and are already impacting for Craig McRae’s side. While they might sit below ‘tier one’ contenders like Fremantle, Brisbane, Hawthorn and Sydney, the Pies are giving themselves every chance of being around the mark next year.

ESSENDON

Premiership window: 2029-2031

There’s little secret first-time senior coach Mark McVeigh has a massive task on his hands in restoring Essendon to premiership heights. And it won’t be news to Bombers fans, but the club is a few years off even thinking about contending. They finally parted with Zach Merrett, and Jordan Ridley also got his trade wish, but early signs suggest the Bombers have had wins with their recent drafting, and they’re set to cash in on a stud with the top open-pool pick in November. Whether it’s Ethan Drever, Arki Butler or someone else entirely, the Dons will add to a young core comprising Nate Caddy, Archie Roberts, Isaac Kako, Sully Robey and Dyson Sharp — one that should see it ascend into contention down the track.

FREMANTLE

Premiership window: 2027-2030

There’s no team more primed and hungry for a premiership than Fremantle, fuelled by September’s utter devastation as it looks to get back to the top of the mountain. And after an historically good home-and-away season, this list remains one of, if not the best in the competition. It’s why they didn’t go about adding another complementary piece in the offseason, and there’s nothing wrong with that decision. Defensive consolidation is the question mark going into the season, but with a star-studded core and the continued development of Murphy Reid, few boast the firepower Fremantle does.

GEELONG

Premiership window: 2027-2029

Another year, another time we get to say ‘Geelong is always in premiership contention’. Because, let’s face it, they are. And they went hard in the player movement space once more. Even if Zak Butters wasn’t part of the haul, the Cats upgraded in all three areas of the ground by acquiring Toby Greene, Rowan Marshall and Jordan Ridley. And if they can get Ridley’s body right, it could be a fruitful return on investment. And as long as Chris Scott, arguably the game’s best tactician, is still at the helm, it’s almost impossible to put a ceiling on how far Geelong can go. After all, they’ve made finals in 10 of the past 11 seasons, and a preliminary final in six of the past eight. Patrick Dangerfield, Mark Blicavs, Tom Stewart and Jeremy Cameron are getting closer to the end, but you’d be silly to think they aren’t planning ahead.

GOLD COAST SUNS

Premiership window: 2028-2031

Everything about next year’s Suns screams ‘bounce back’. Simply, their nine-win, 13th-place finish was not reflective of the immense talent on their list. And even after Ben King departed for Hawthorn in free agency, this club remains well-equipped to rejuvenate itself back into a finals contender at minimum. Academy pair Zeke Uwland and Dylan Patterson now have a year under their belts, while there’ll be more natural progression from Jed Walter, Leo Lombard and the like. This time last year, after freeing themselves of their finals hoodoo, we were saying their premiership window had officially opened. They should, in theory, still be in the window. But after last year, they’re hard to trust.

GWS GIANTS

Premiership window: 2029-2031

The Giants appear to be in a transitory period with their list, having farewelled Toby Greene, Lachie Whitfield, Jesse Hogan, Jake Stringer and Kieren Briggs in the offseason. At their best this year, they were scintillating – see that massive win over Brisbane – but at their worst, they succumbed to the likes of Essendon. They flirted with finals contention but never seemed a genuine top-six threat after falling at the elimination final hurdle in 2025, before realising their next contending team would come with a reimagined list. With a healthy Tom Green rejoining the midfield brigade alongside Finn Callaghan, GWS will do some damage next year. But with a weakened list and the potential for more to depart in the coming years – possibly Green and Lachie Ash – the Giants’ next contending window is unclear.

HAWTHORN

Premiership window: 2027-2030

Similar to Geelong, the Hawks made several moves to upgrade their list and remain near the front of the premiership pack. Zach Merrett has been hoped to be the midfielder to put Hawthorn over the top, while Ben King adds to a stacked front half ahead of the post-Jack Gunston era, and Josh Goater is a developing half-back asset. After back-to-back near misses on preliminary final weekend, Sam Mitchell and the Hawks will feel some pressure to get to the big dance next year, but more holistically, they will continue to be around the mark for seasons to come. Will Day, Connor Macdonald, Josh Ward, Cam Mackenzie, Josh Weddle and Nick Watson are all 25 years old or younger.

MELBOURNE

Premiership window: 2028-2029

The Demons are one of the harder teams to assess, as far as determining whether they’re in the window as of next year. Few projected them to have the kind of season they did in Steven King’s first campaign in charge, but it certainly accelerated their timeline. After falling out of the top six late in the season, it might still be too early to say the Dees are in premiership contention, but it wouldn’t surprise many in the industry to see them pushing the top four next year. They’re more likely one year away from true contention, with Kozzy Pickett only 25 years old and Jacob van Rooyen, Matt Jefferson, Caleb Windsor, Koltyn Tholstrup, Zane Duursma, Latrelle Pickett and Harvey Langford all 23 or younger. But Max Gawn isn’t getting any younger, and their ability to contend might hinge on the level of play he’s able to sustain as he prepares for his age-35 season next year. Their offseason acquisitions of Duursma and Will McLachlan – and pursuit of Calsher Dear – suggest they’re still planning for future years.

NORTH MELBOURNE

Premiership window: 2028-2031

The Arden Street vibes are on the upswing; there’s no doubt about that. With Nick Blakey officially a Kangaroo, Jaymie Graham has his half-back counterpunch weapon, and a list that’s reached the stage where it’s about winning in the present, not draft picks. With the likes of Harry Sheezel, Paul Curtis and Charlie Comben nearing 100 games of experience, the time is now. The Kangas won’t be in the premiership window next year – nor is the year after a guarantee – but provided they take the long-awaited finals step in 2027, the door is wide open for them from 2028 onwards. North showed on several occasions this year that it can play an exciting transition game while also capitalising from stoppage, and with Graham installed as one of the most highly-touted coaches-in-waiting in recent memory, the Shinboners should do damage next year.

PORT ADELAIDE

Premiership window: 2029-2031

The Power’s rebuild under Josh Carr got off to a promising start this year, playing competitively in several of their 16 losses. It inspired hope in Carr’s game plan while also ensuring a low ladder finish to make things straightforward from a draft perspective – and we’ve seen how they’ve been able to impressively wheel and deal this month to maximise their hand over the next two drafts. This list will be built around the club-tied talents they’ll secure this year and next – Dougie Cochrane, Louis Salopek and Zemes Pilot – with a mature Jason Horne-Francis doing his thing and Connor Rozee leading from the front. This is only the beginning of their start-from-scratch arc, though, with their next era of contention seemingly far in the distance.

RICHMOND

Premiership window: 2029-2031

It’s been a grind for the Tigers under Adem Yze, and 2027 will be largely about determining whether there’s light at the end of his tunnel — otherwise he might face dire straits. But with hopefully more young guns fit and on the park in 2027, Richmond will be plotting a few more wins than the three it managed this year. But no matter what happens with the coach next season, early signs suggest the club has drafted well across the past two years – Sam Lalor, Taj Hotton, Jonty Faull, Sam Grlj and Sam Cumming among the exciting names – and Blair Hartley and co. will have one more throw at the stumps next month with two top-10 picks to help round out the core of the list. It’ll then be about getting those aforementioned names to 50-100 games of experience before we’re talking about the next Richmond premiership contender.

ST KILDA

Premiership window: 2028-2030

The Saints are another club in a curious position in terms of deciphering how close to flag contention they are. They got busy in the 2025 player movement space but were quieter this year around, with those recruits from last year improving Ross Lyon’s side, but not enough to help it ascend to the top 10. It makes St Kilda an intriguing watch, in what will be the final year of Lyon’s current coaching contract. But the club clearly backs in the core of this list, adding only unproven ex-Lion Sam Marshall and four-club veteran Jake Stringer for 2027. The Saints have talented players in the middle of the ground especially, with Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera still only about to turn 24 years old, big-money recruit Tom De Koning in the ruck and diamond-in-the-rough Max Hall, who’s quickly become one of their best five players. Hugo Garcia is only 21 and still ascending, too. So, there’s a world where it works out and the Saints make that finals leap next year and convince Nas to re-sign, but premiership contention might not come until, at the earliest, 2028.

SYDNEY SWANS

Premiership window: 2027-2029

It was an absolute rollercoaster season for the Swans, starting scintillatingly hot and shaping as a serious contender before the events of the Pullman Hotel scandal, which they continue to count the cost of. Nick Blakey’s departure to North Melbourne was one of the byproducts, which came after Dean Cox’s side fell agonisingly short on preliminary final weekend. The Swans have also since lost depth with Joel Amartey and Harry Cunningham seeking greener pastures. And after last year’s mega Charlie Curnow trade, they were quiet in the buying market this October. It puts them in an interesting spot with regard to their flag window. Provided Blakey is the only void left, the Swans still have a swathe of talented players to fuel another premiership push in 2027 and beyond. Even if Chad Warner leaves for West Australia next year, you can already see Harry Kyle, Jesse Dattoli, Tom Hanily, Will Edwards and Will Green coming through the ranks. Beyond next year, the list is in good shape.

WEST COAST EAGLES

Premiership window: 2029-2031

The Eagles are on a similar trajectory to Richmond, in that they’ve stockpiled young players but now need to see it all in action under coach Andrew McQualter, who is contracted through 2027. We saw it in glimpses this year, but a few too many uncompetitive showings means there’ll be eyes on West Coast’s progress next year. Provided Harley Reid sticks around, and Willem Duursma and Jobe Shanahan continue on their promising trajectories, the Eagles should be OK in the long run. Adding Jack Viney and Trent Rivers this offseason helps to a degree, but they’ll have their eyes on the likes of West Australian products Chad Warner and Sam Taylor as the real needle-movers to truly elevate into ‘win-now’ mode.

WESTERN BULLDOGS

Premiership window: 2027-2030

The Bulldogs made the biggest ‘win-now’ offseason play of any AFL club, securing superstar midfielder Zak Butters to partner with Marcus Bontempelli and Ed Richards and form comfortably the best midfield in the competition. Even more tantalisingly, the Dogs will get Sam Darcy back next year, rejoining a potent forward set-up. And they even addressed the thorn in their side, signing Jordon Butts as a free agent to bolster their backline key stocks. The Dogs made the moves to elevate themselves into true premiership contenders after multiple recent finals exits in the first or second week of September. And thus, they will be planning to win it all next year, but even if they don’t, they shape as players in the premiership race for several ensuing seasons. If they aren’t seriously in the race with Butters next year, they never will be.