The long-awaited, top-25-filled Week 10 of the college football season is finally here.
Everything from College Football Playoff implications to potential conference championship matchups are in play this Saturday. Starting at 12 p.m. ET, No. 9 BYU heads to No. 3 Utah for the annual Holy War rivalry matchup, with instant CFP and Big 12 title impact. The day ends with No. 1 Miami at No. 11 Notre Dame in a rematch of the game that arguably kept the Fighting Irish out of last year’s CFP.
Especially after Tuesday’s first CFP rankings of the season — which FOX Sports’ Joel Klatt raised concerns about — this weekend’s slate will make a heavy impact on the postseason playoff picture.
Here at Klatt’s Week 10 picks and previews, from the latest episode of “The Joel Klatt Show”:
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Spread: Notre Dame -5.5
Moneyline: Notre Dame -238, Miami +195
Klatt’s thoughts: “Notre Dame, you got to win … The committee really put Notre Dame behind the eight ball. They’re backed into a corner. So, don’t we all expect to get Notre Dame’s best? I mean, we have to … Now, Miami has taken care of business. Notre Dame did not. They got beat by BYU. Yes, there was a second left. They didn’t get that snap, and so here they are with their backs against the wall.
“Let’s take a look at this game from just like: what’s the strongest thing? What’s the weakest thing that any of these teams do? Well, if you’re looking at the weakest thing, I always look at that, because in a matchup game typically the weakest link of the teams is what’s going to end up getting you beat, and the weakest thing that anybody does in this game is Miami’s defense, and we’ve seen that over the last, what, three weeks and three games. Two of the last three games, they’ve given up 35 points to Florida State and UNC. So it’s not a great defense. It is not nearly the defensive front that they had a year ago. Their secondary is not great.
“So they’ve got to find a way to limit CJ Carr, who I think is one of the better quarterbacks that we have in the country. What’s the strongest part of this game? It’s Miami’s offense. It’s interesting. They’ve got the strongest part. They’ve got the weakest part. Their ceiling with their offense is outstanding. I think it’s the best thing anybody does in college football. Darian Mensah film is fantastic. I love watching it. It’s only equaled or surpassed by Malachi Toney … Malachi Toney creates space every time he runs a route. He might not be the deep threat that some of these other guys are, in particular like a Jeremiah Smith. But when you talk about short area quickness, spatial awareness, toughness in the run game as he’s blocking and digging out safeties, this guy plays hard, and I love watching it.
“I’m going to go to Notre Dame. I think that they have to win, and they will win because, again, the committee is doing Miami no favors here … Notre Dame 30-27. Miami, I’ll take the 5.5.”
Klatt’s straight-up pick: Notre Dame
Klatt’s pick against the spread: Miami +5.5
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Spread: Utah -4.5
Moneyline: Utah -198, BYU +164
Klatt’s thoughts: “BYU at Utah. Holy War. 4.5 is the spread here. Utah is favored. Utah has lost three straight in this series, including a home game. BYU has not looked great since the Notre Dame game. I think we would all agree with that. Utah has been a team that has been very impressive, which is largely why they’re ranked No. 3 in the country right now. Because even though they’ve played something north of a wet paper bag, the committee decided that they were the third-ranked team in the country. That was a shot. It wasn’t meant to be a shot. Because I love Utah. You know I love you, Utah. Death, taxes, Utah football. They roared back against Houston after being down 10-0 at around halftime. They destroyed Cincinnati. They’re a difficult team to beat on the road when they’re in their home stadium. Devon Dampier and Wayshawn Parker are dynamic. The one concern I would have for Devon Dampier is the turnovers.
“You can’t do that in this game, not in this game. And, in particular, with an aggressive BYU defense … They’re going to have to run the football, play quality defense, and use the energy of that stadium to their benefit. LJ Martin for BYU could be back. I don’t know how effective he will be, but they need that because they have not been able to run the football very well over the last couple of weeks. Speaking of BYU, both have good defenses. Although, gosh, you know I love Kalani Sitake. I think Kalani Sitake is fantastic, but his defense the last couple of weeks hasn’t been like BYU standard. I personally believe this Utah team has something to prove. Almost like their coach retired and then took another job somewhere else. It’s like it resembles that. I don’t know if that was the case or not, but that’s what it looks like. And Morgan Scalley has been there for a long time, and he understands the culture of Utah. And I think this team is playing with an edge.
“Utah 27, BYU 20. Utah covers the 4.5.”
Klatt’s straight-up pick: Utah
Klatt’s pick against the spread: Utah -4.5
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Spread: Georgia -3.5
Moneyline: Georgia -175, Ole Miss +145
Klatt’s thoughts: “Georgia at Ole Miss. This one could be a great game. I really think it could be. Georgia is favored by 3.5. Rematch to that quarterfinal from a year ago. Ole Miss won that one. Trinidad Chambliss was outstanding in that ball game, and I’m sure Kirby Smart has had nightmares about Trinidad Chambliss ever since then. And now he’s got to go to Oxford, and he’s got to play Trinidad Chambliss where Trinidad Chambliss has never lost a start. Ole Miss is not going to have Kewan Lacy, he’s likely out in this game. Trinidad Chambliss is a guy that I love. You guys, I know I’ve loved him ever since the beginning of the year, and now he gets to face Kirby Smart. And this team is the best road team that we have in the country over the last several years. Why? Because they’re consistent. Why? Because they run the football. Because they play good defense. These are the things that travel. These are the things that allow you to have success on the road. I do think it’s going to be a close game. I don’t think Georgia is going to be able to separate in this game, but they’re too consistent. They’re too consistent.
“If Georgia can hold Ole Miss to field goals, I think that’s where the game is won or lost. If it’s high scoring, I favor Ole Miss because Trinidad runs wild. If it’s lower scoring and in the 20s, then I favor Georgia because it’s a slug fest, and you’re kicking field goals, and it’s third down and it’s situations. What do I think it’s going to be? More of a slug fest.
“I’m going to take Georgia 28-24. They cover the 3.5 on the road.”
Klatt’s straight-up pick: Georgia
Klatt’s pick against the spread: Georgia -3.5
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Spread: Ohio State -7.5
Moneyline: Ohio State -305, Oregon +245
Klatt’s thoughts: “Oregon at Ohio State. Ohio State favored by 7.5. Interesting. So Vegas likes Ohio State a lot more than the committee does. By the way, Oregon has a path to the Big Ten championship game. I know we haven’t talked about that a lot on this program, but I know other programs have mentioned it. Yes, that’s absolutely the case. And if I were Oregon, I would smell the blood in the water a little bit.
“This is not the same Ohio State that came into Eugene a couple of years ago and would eventually win the national championship. And it is certainly not the same Ohio State that you saw in the Rose Bowl, and that kind of, you know, blew the hinges off in that game. I don’t know what we’re going to get. Luke Fahey is going to start at QB again. How long is the leash for Luke Fahey? Not sure. I don’t think he played very well … I thought the ball went to the wrong spot a few times. He overthrew some open wide receivers, and they didn’t get the ball to Jeremiah Smith.
“Jay Johnson is (Oregon’s) new offensive coordinator after they fired Drew Mehringer after that Illinois game, and they looked a lot better in the second half against Northwestern. This is a very different defense than they’re going to face. I think this is a much better secondary, and I would think that Matt Patricia of Ohio State is going to find a way to put pressure on Dylan Raiola. He does not deal with pressure well. It’s like Ohio State’s backed into a corner … You just get all of Ohio State, and if you get all of Ohio State, that means that you get all of Jeremiah Smith, and they’re going to be taking shots, and they’re going to be more aggressive even with a young quarterback, because you got nothing to lose.
“I’m going to say Ohio State wins this game. They have to. They win it 30-20. They cover the 7.5.”
Klatt’s straight-up pick: Ohio State
Klatt’s pick against the spread: Ohio State -7.5
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Spread: LSU -5.5
Moneyline: LSU -225, Alabama +185
Klatt’s thoughts: “Alabama at LSU, always a great game. LSU is favored by 5.5 over the committee’s fifth-ranked team. You mean Vegas doesn’t agree with the committee either? No, they don’t. No one does. Literally, no one. Not even Bama fans … Bad matchup for Alabama in this one. I think it’s a terrible matchup for Alabama. Let me tell you why, because if Kalen DeBoer gets into a big game, typically they throw the football a lot and they don’t run it very well. And when that happens, they have to protect their quarterback. And if they can’t protect their quarterback, they don’t win. And LSU is a terrific pass rushing team. Terrific, second in the country in sacks. Meanwhile, you would think that Alabama on the offensive line would do a good job protecting their quarterback. Not the case. We saw pressure against Tennessee, pressure against Georgia, and LSU might be better in the pass rush than both of those teams. Bad matchup. I don’t think they’re going to be able to run the football.
“Speaking of Alabama … They beat Mississippi State, who was undefeated at the time. Each of the last two times that they played LSU in Death Valley, Alabama has been held under 70 yards rushing, and that’s even with better Alabama teams and teams that are more willing to run the football. So again, all of this leads to: Do I think LSU can at least get out of their own way offensively, not turn the football over and score some points? The answer is yes. Sam Leavitt is playing better. He’s taking care of the ball … You’ve got some guys back for Alabama. I don’t know how much they’re going to give you. Ryan Coleman-Williams is going to be back. Zabien Brown might be back. I just think LSU, they’re going to be a team that’s going to be very difficult to beat in this one.
I’ve got LSU 30, Alabama 17. LSU covers the 5.5″
Klatt’s straight-up pick: LSU
Klatt’s pick against the spread: LSU -5.5
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Spread: Texas -2.5
Moneyline: Texas -142, Missouri +120
Klatt’s thoughts: “Texas at Missouri. This one should be an interesting game, partly because I have no idea who’s going to be playing for Texas. They are a mess unit right now. Sark has come out and talked about them being a bit undermanned this week. Let me just roll through a couple of these. Sark put it this way: could be without Cam Coleman, could be without Ryan Wingo, already without Trevor Goosby, their left tackle. Will be without Hollywood Smothers, all on offense. Two starting corners look like they’re going to be out. Colin Simmons’ status unknown. Best pass rusher in college football, week-to-week with that ankle. He’s missed the last two. Who’s going to be out there? Arch Manning is going to be out there. What do I worry about with Texas? That it becomes an Arch show. Because when it’s an Arch show, it’s not great.
“We’ve been over this. When Texas can run the ball, play great defense, they might be the best team in the country because that’s when Arch can take them to their ceiling with the play-action pass, and he’s not being asked to do everything offensively. In this game, it might be Arch … What’s Texas going to bring to the table from a defensive perspective up front? Are they going to be able to stop the run? They didn’t do a great job against Florida, letting their quarterback get loose. I’m worried about Texas in this one if it’s going to turn into an Arch game. He’s been sacked 20 times in the last five games. That’s tied for the most in the country. He’s got nine turnovers in six games versus Power Four teams this year. It can’t be the Arch show, and I don’t know what else is around him. So it might have to be the Arch show. I think Missouri is going to be able to run the football … They’re going to come in and emphasize it. They’re going to they’re going to start with the run game, and I think that that’s going to be to their advantage.
“I’ve got Missouri winning the game, 21-17. Missouri, I’ll take the 2.5.”
Klatt’s straight-up pick: Missouri
Klatt’s pick against the spread: Missouri +2.5
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