recommended NFL Fallout Week 4: Rams Remind Why They’re The Scariest Team In The NFL 2026 NFL Bad Beat: A Hockenson Slide That Will Haunt Vikings Bettors Forever The Chiefs Are Back In Dynasty Mode; Why Is Everything So Hard For The Rams? Chiefs WR Tyquan Thornton Reportedly, Suffered Dislocated Ankle, Expected Back In 12-16 Weeks Overreaction Monday: Sound The Panic Alarm For The Eagles And Matthew Stafford? NFL Suspends Official, Referee For Unprofessional Conduct 49ers LB Dre Greenlaw Explains Why He Cussed Out Broncos HC Sean Payton NFL Week 4 Defining Stats: Mahomes Chases Brady, Nacua Climbs Past Moss NFL, CFB Weekend Betting Recap: Pats, Cowboys Give Books ‘Sigh Of Relief’ Arrow pointing to the leftArrow pointing to the right Item 1 of 3

We’re four weeks into the NFL season, and win totals have shifted.

Which teams are projected to win the most games this year? And which teams might fall short of their expected win totals?

Let’s dive into the win totals at DraftKings Sportsbook as of Oct. 6. 

Over 4.5: -128 (bet $10 to win $17.81 total)
Under 4.5: +106 (bet $10 to win $20.60 total)

What To Know: The Cardinals won just three games in 2025 and opened this season with a win total of 3.5. They are 1-3 so far, and their next seven games are Lions, Rams, Broncos, Cowboys, Seahawks, Rams and Chiefs.

Over 7.5: -136 (bet $10 to win $17.35 total)
Under 7.5: +108 (bet $10 to win $20.80 total)

What To Know: The Falcons won eight games in 2025 and closed the season on a four-game winning streak. At 2-2, their win total has not changed since the beginning of the season, but they are now favored to win eight games or more. Atlanta is 2-0 with Michael Penix Jr. as the starting QB. 

Over 11.5: -125 (bet $10 to win $18 total)
Under 11.5: +105 (bet $10 to win $20.50 total)

What To Know: The Ravens won only eight games in 2025, but much of that was due to Lamar Jackson missing four games while also dealing with injuries for most of the season. They are now 3-1 and favored to go over 11.5 wins. Their number has not shifted since preseason.

Over 11.5: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)
Under 11.5: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)

What To Know: The Bills have gone over their win total of 10.5 in each of the last six seasons. They are now at an O/U of 11.5 wins, after opening at 10.5. Buffalo is 3-1, with the Rams, Raiders, Ravens and Vikings coming up.

Over 7.5: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)
Under 7.5: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)

What To Know: The Panthers won the NFC South last season with just eight wins. They are 2-2, with wins over Atlanta and Detroit, and losses to Chicago and Cleveland. Their win total has not changed since preseaso

Over 10.5: +100 (bet $10 to win $20 total)
Under 10.5: -120 (bet $10 to win $18.33 total)

What To Know: The Bears won 11 games and the NFC North in Ben Johnson’s first season in Chicago, but they are set to face the NFL’s toughest schedule in 2026. Also, Caleb Williams is injured. Still, the Bears’ win total has moved from 10.5 to 11.5 with their 3-1 start. They’ve got Packers, Falcons, Patriots, Seahawks next.

Over 10.5: +118 (bet $10 to win $21.80 total)
Under 10.5: -150 (bet $10 to win $16.67 total)

What To Know: The Bengals won six games in 2025, but that was largely because Joe Burrow missed nine games while they also fielded one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They are 2-2 through four weeks this season, having lost their last two. Their win total has not changed since preseason.

Over 7.5: -120 (bet $10 to win $18.33 total)
Under 7.5: +100 (bet $10 to win $20 total)

What To Know: The Browns won five games in 2025 and finished last in the AFC North. However, Cleveland made several major changes this offseason, including hiring Todd Monken as its new head coach, and it is now 3-1. It opened the season with a win total of 5.5. Four of the Browns’ next five games are on the road.

Over 9.5: +102 (bet $10 to win $20.20 total)
Under 9.5: -125 (bet $10 to win $18 total)

What To Know: The Cowboys won seven games last season, mostly because they had one of the NFL’s worst defenses. They are 2-2 so far this season, and the defense is still bad, giving up 28 points per game, third-worst in the NFL. Their win total has not shifted since the beginning of the year. 

Over 9.5: -120 (bet $10 to win $18.33 total)
Under 9.5: +100 (bet $10 to win $20 total)

What To Know: The Broncos were one of three teams that led the NFL with 14 wins last season. However, they also recorded 11 one-possession victories during the regular season, which tied an NFL record. Through four weeks, they are 2-2, but have had arguably the toughest four games in the league — at Kansas City, Jacksonville, the L.A. Rams and at San Francisco. Their win total has not shifted since Week 1.

Over 9.5: -132 (bet $10 to win $17.58 total)
Under 9.5: +110 (bet $10 to win $21 total)

What To Know: After winning 15 games in 2024, the Lions took a major step back in 2025, finishing 9-8 and missing the playoffs. They are 2-2 this season and their win total has dropped from 10.5 to begin the season.

Over 8.5: +105 (bet $10 to win $20.50 total)
Under 8.5: -125 (bet $10 to win $18 total)

What To Know: The Packers have only gone over this win total twice in the past five seasons, including last year when they had just nine wins and lost their final five games. They opened the season favored to win 10 or more games, and now they are favored to win eight or fewer. Green Bay is 2-2.

Over 7.5: -105 (bet $10 to win $19.52 total)
Under 7.5: -115 (bet $10 to win $18.70 total)

What To Know: Houston has won at least 10 games in each of the last three seasons, including 12 wins in 2025. However, it is 0-4 to start this year and its win total has dropped from 9.5 to start the season.

Over 8.5: +100 (bet $10 to win $20 total)
Under 8.5: -120 (bet $10 to win $18.33 total)

What To Know: The Colts’ 2025 season was the complete opposite of the Texans’. Indianapolis started 7-1 and held the No. 1 seed in the AFC after Week 8. However, it then lost eight of its final nine games, including a seven-game losing streak to end the season. Indy is now 2-2 and its win total has moved from 7.5 to start the year.

Over 10.5: -156 (bet $10 to win $16.41 total)
Under 10.5: +124 (bet $10 to win $22.40 total)

What To Know: After winning just four games in 2024, the Jaguars completed an incredible turnaround in 2025 with 13 wins and an AFC South title in Liam Coen’s first season as head coach. Now, the Jags are 3-1 and their win total has moved from 8.5 ahead of Week 1. They are favored to win 11 games or more.

Over 11.5: -120 (bet $10 to win $18.33 total)
Under 10.5: +100 (bet $10 to win $20 total)

What To Know: The Chiefs recorded their lowest win total since 2012 with just six wins, largely due to a brutal 1-9 record in one-score games. This season is different, however. K.C. is 4-0, and they are now favored to win 12 games or more, after opening the season with a 10.5 win total. Most importantly, Mahomes is healthy.

Over 8.5: +100 (bet $10 to win $20 total)
Under 5.5: -120 (bet $10 to win $18.33 total)

What To Know: After finishing with the worst record in the NFL last year with just three wins, the Raiders finally appear to have hope. They drafted Fernando Mendoza at No. 1, but with Kirk Cousins as the starter, they are 3-1. Their win total has shifted from 5.5 before Week 1 to 8.5 after Week 4. Next up, however, is the Patriots, Bills and Rams.

Over 5.5: -140 (bet $10 to win $16.67 total)
Under 5.5: +118 (bet $10 to win $21.80 total)

What To Know: The Chargers won 11 games in 2025, but it doesn’t look like they will reach that number this season. They opened the season favored to go over 9.5 wins, but after starting 0-4, they are now favored to win fewer than 5.5 games. Their next five opponents are the Broncos, Chiefs, Rams, Texans and Ravens.

Over 10.5: -146 (bet $10 to win $16.85 total)
Under 10.5: +120 (bet $10 to win $22 total)

What To Know: The Rams won 12 games last season, and if not for a few bad breaks and costly mistakes in their losses to Seattle, it could have been Los Angeles hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. They opened the season at 11.5 wins, but have dipped a little, after starting 2-2. The schedule eases up over the next several weeks.

Over 2.5: -130 (bet $10 to win $17.69 total)
Under 2.5: +110 (bet $10 to win $21 total)

What To Know: The Dolphins opened with the second-lowest projected win total in 2026, but that number has fallen from 3.5 to 2.5. Miami is 0-4.

Over 10.5: -146 (bet $10 to win $16.85 total)
Under 10.5: +122 (bet $10 to win $22.20 total)

What To Know: The Vikings won nine games last season after letting Sam Darnold walk in free agency, but one positive was how they finished, winning their final five games. Minnesota also signed Kyler Murray to a veteran minimum contract. The Vikes are 4-0 to start the year and their win total has jumped from 8.5 before Week 1 to 10.5 after Week 4. They are favored to reach 11 wins or more.

Over 9.5: -115 (bet $10 to win $18.70 total)
Under 9.5: -105 (bet $10 to win $19.52 total)

What To Know: The Patriots are coming off a 14-win season that ended with a Super Bowl appearance, but they also faced one of the easiest schedules in the NFL in 2025. That’s not the case this season, and so far, they are 1-3. They did get a win at Buffalo in Week 4, however. Their win total has dropped a game since preseason, from 10.5.

Over 7.5: -108 (bet $10 to win $19.26 total)
Under 7.5: -112 (bet $10 to win $18.93 total)

What To Know: The Saints won six games last season, but they went 5-4 in games started by Tyler Shough and just 1-7 in all other contests. They are 1-3 this season but have been competitive for the most part. New Orleans’ win total has not shifted since the season began.

Over 7.5: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)
Under 7.5: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)

What To Know: After winning a combined 13 games over the last three seasons, the Giants are officially in a new era in New York under John Harbaugh. They are 3-1 through four games, despite starting QB Jaxson Dart suffering a season-ending injury. Their win total has not shifted since before Week 1.

Over 5.5: -150 (bet $10 to win $16.67 total)
Under 5.5: +120 (bet $10 to win $22 total)

What To Know: The first year of the Aaron Glenn era in New York did not go as planned, as the Jets won just three games. They are 1-3 through four weeks in 2026. Their win total of 5.5 has not shifted.

Over 9.5: +110 (bet $10 to win $21 total)
Under 9.5: -130 (bet $10 to win $17.69 total)

What To Know: The Eagles have gone over this win total in each of the last four seasons. However, after starting 8-2 last year, Philadelphia lost five of its final eight games, including a wild-card playoff loss to the 49ers. They are 2-2 this season, but have lost back-to-back games. Their win total has dropped from 10.5 to start the season.

Over 7.5: -134 (bet $10 to win $17.46 total)
Under 7.5: +106 (bet $10 to win $20.60 total)

What To Know: The Steelers are 2-2 on the year, and their win total has dropped a game since the start of the season. Their schedule is not daunting in the coming weeks, with games against the Colts, Bucs, Saints and Browns over the next four weeks.

Over 12.5: +120 (bet $10 to win $22 total)
Under 9.5: -152 (bet $10 to win $16.58 total)

What To Know: The 49ers remarkably won 12 games in 2025 despite dealing with a plethora of injuries to several key players, including Brock Purdy missing eight games. However, he is healthy this season and playing at an MVP level. S.F. opened the season with a win total of 9.5, but that number has jumped to 12.5 after its 4-0 start. 

Over 10.5: -146 (bet $10 to win $16.85 total)
Under 10.5: +122 (bet $10 to win $22.20 total)

What To Know: The Super Bowl champions won 14 regular-season games last season in a historic year. Through four weeks, they are 3-1, but the schedule is getting tough. They next get the 49ers, Broncos, Chiefs and Bears. Their win total has remained the same from the start of the season.

Over 5.5: +120 (bet $10 to win $22 total)
Under 5.5: -146 (bet $10 to win $16.85 total)

What To Know: After starting last season 6-2, Tampa Bay lost seven of its final nine games and missed the playoffs. Now, after opening this year with a win total of 8.5, that number is down to 5.5 with the Bucs’ 0-4 start.

Over 4.5: +120 (bet $10 to win $22 total)
Under 4.5: -140 (bet $10 to win $17.14 total)

What To Know: In Cam Ward’s first NFL season, the Titans won just three games. Tennessee was expected to make a jump this season, opening with a win total of 6.5. However, the Titans are 0-4 and their win total has dropped to 4.5.

Over 6.5: -130 (bet $10 to win $17.69 total)
Under 6.5: +110 (bet $10 to win $21 total)

What To Know: After a dream season in 2024 in which the Commanders won 12 games and reached the NFC Championship Game, Washington took a major step back in 2025, winning just five games. This season, they are 1-3 through four games and Jayden Daniels is nursing an injured elbow. Their win total has dropped a game since the start of the year.