Four rounds into the NBL27 season, and some of those pre-season predictions might already be thrown out the window.
Championship favourites are struggling to find form, while teams that entered the season with minimal expectations are climbing the standings as clubs across the league continue searching for consistency and rhythm heading into Round 5.
Each week, Fox Sports Australia will release its NBL Power Rankings, taking into account each team’s form, their opponents, the manner of their wins and losses, and the overall trajectory of each club throughout the season.
FOX SPORTS POWER RANKINGS: ROUND FOUR
1st | Sydney Kings (3-1) | –
It will be a match spoken about for the rest of the season, but despite their controversial 84-78 loss to rivals Adelaide 36ers, the Sydney Kings remain the best team in the league, even after suffering their first defeat.
Ironically, the 10-day break between games did the reigning champions no favours. They struggled from beyond the arc, shooting just 28.6%, and combined that with 13 turnovers in a performance where they looked rusty and out of rhythm.
Putting aside the controversial ending, Kendric Davis finished with 16 points, five rebounds and seven assists, but struggled with his efficiency, shooting just 31.6% from the field.
Former MVP Xavier Cooks was a standout, adding 22 points and eight rebounds in the loss.
The Kings remain the league’s top-ranked team in both offensive rating (126.3) and defensive rating (110.4), and one loss isn’t going to erase their impressive three-win start to the season, regardless of how favourable their schedule has been so far.
Now, the reigning champions face a busier stretch, hosting the New Zealand Breakers and Perth Wildcats before finally beginning their road campaign.
With lengthy breaks between games making it difficult to build momentum, the Kings are about to face their biggest challenges of the season.
How they respond will tell us plenty about where this team stands.
2nd | Tasmania JackJumpers (4-1) | +1
After back-to-back injury-riddled seasons, the Tasmania JackJumpers are emerging as one of the best teams in the league, and they’re doing it without several key players, including Bryce Hamilton, Ben Ayre and Majok Deng, with veteran Anthony Drmic announcing his retirement earlier yesterday.
That makes their current form all the more impressive.
Their only game of the round saw them secure a dominant 122-112 victory over the struggling Illawarra Hawks, extending their winning streak to three games and giving Scott Roth’s side plenty of reasons to be excited about this roster.
Leading the charge is Taran Armstrong, who is averaging 19.4 points, 2.8 rebounds and 5.0 assists, while David Johnson is enjoying career-best form, putting up 20.2 points per game.
Then there’s MVP candidate Will Magnay, who continues to establish himself as one of the best big men in the league, averaging 16.8 points and 8.0 rebounds.
Offensively, the JackJumpers are firing on all cylinders, ranking second in offensive rating (124.2), although their defence still needs some improvement, sitting seventh with a rating of 118.9.
For now, they’re one of the hottest teams in the competition, and after spending much of their early schedule on the road, Tasmania finally have the opportunity to build some momentum at home.
With Adelaide and New Zealand visiting in Round 5, the island is about to be defended.
3rd | Perth Wildcats (4-1) | +1
The Perth Wildcats remain one of just three teams to have suffered only one defeat this season, and right now, they’re among the most in-form sides in the competition.
But how long can it last?
Alongside Sydney, Perth are one of only two teams yet to travel this season, with all five of their games played at RAC Arena.
Of course, you can only beat what’s put in front of you, and the Wildcats have done exactly that. Their time on the road will come soon enough.
Round 4 saw Perth dismantle an injury-hit New Zealand Breakers side 100-84, with NBA veteran Brandon Knight finally making his long-awaited debut.
Knight finished with six points off the bench in just under 20 minutes, but the night belonged to two other Wildcats.
Dylan Windler and Elijah Pepper combined for a staggering 57 points, with Windler producing a career-best performance of 32 points, including seven made threes, both career highs.
Pepper, meanwhile, continued his remarkable scoring form, reaching 25 points for the fourth consecutive game and further establishing himself as one of the league’s most dangerous offensive weapons.
The Wildcats currently rank third in offensive rating (122.3), although their defence remains an area of concern, sitting ninth with a rating of 121.2.
For now, they can celebrate their impressive start, particularly considering they’ve been stacking up wins without star centre Jo Lual-Acuil Jr, who remains sidelined with a calf injury.
Their biggest test is just around the corner, with Perth finally hitting the road to face the Sydney Kings on Saturday in what shapes as one of the must-watch games of Round 5.
4th | New Zealand Breakers (3-3) | -2
It was a tough, tough round for the New Zealand Breakers, who not only suffered another defeat but were dealt a massive injury blow, with MVP contender Parker Jackson-Cartwright expected to miss up to a month with a lower-leg injury.
Already without Preston Le Gassick and Josiah-Jordan James, the Breakers travelled to RAC Arena severely undermanned, and although they put up a tremendous fight against Perth, their lack of available bodies eventually caught up with them.
New Zealand remained competitive for much of the contest before a fourth-quarter barrage from the Wildcats put the game beyond reach.
However, star big man Sam Mennenga did everything in his power to drag his side across the line.
In 36 minutes, the Kiwi produced a career-best performance, finishing with an incredible 40 points, 18 rebounds and five assists.
Unfortunately, the absence of Jackson-Cartwright was impossible to ignore.
The club is expecting temporary signing Nelson Weidemann to arrive soon, providing some much-needed help in the back-court. However, Weidemann is more of a scorer than a traditional point guard, and right now, the Breakers simply need healthy bodies on the floor.
Despite their injury concerns, New Zealand remain fifth in offensive rating (119.7) and third in defensive rating (113.0), which is particularly impressive considering the amount of travelling they’ve already done.
To make matters worse, they won’t return home until October 30, with trips to Sydney, Tasmania and Cairns awaiting them over the next fortnight.
It’s a brutal stretch for an already depleted roster, and one that could see the Breakers slide further down the standings if they can’t find a way to overcome their injury woes.
5th | Melbourne United (3-3) | +1
A flawless Round 4 for Jacob Chance and Melbourne United, who not only took down the Adelaide 36ers but also maintained their dominance over cross-town rivals South East Melbourne Phoenix as they continue to find their form.
The biggest revelation from the round, however, might just be the emergence of Josh Oduro.
The American import is quietly becoming one of United’s most dangerous players, and he’s doing it with remarkable efficiency.
Oduro is now averaging 17.5 points, 7.5 rebounds and 1.2 blocks while shooting a team-high 71.4% from the field, putting the rest of the league on notice as one of the most under-the-radar import signings this season.
As for Cole Anthony, he remains one of the competition’s leading scorers, averaging 23.5 points per game, although his efficiency could use some improvement, shooting 39.8% from the field.
Still, it’s early days.
With every game, United appear to be getting better, and considering the depth of their roster, alongside the fact they’re still without Chris Goulding and a fully fit Shea Ili, there’s plenty of upside remaining.
If they continue improving and reach the finals, this could become a scary team to face.
Despite ranking just seventh in offensive rating (114.4), United boast the league’s second-best defence (110.5), and with a home clash against the struggling Illawarra Hawks coming up, they’ll be confident of building on their recent momentum.
6th | Cairns Taipans (4-3) | +3
After a disastrous loss to the New Zealand Breakers, the Cairns Taipans have responded in impressive fashion, stringing together three consecutive wins and emerging as one of the league’s form teams.
Round 4 saw Adam Forde’s side defeat both the Brisbane Bullets and Illawarra Hawks, continuing a remarkable turnaround after their inconsistent start to the season.
A major reason behind their resurgence has been star forward Jack McVeigh, who is beginning to find his rhythm, particularly from beyond the arc.
Before the round, McVeigh had connected on just five of his previous 33 three-point attempts across four games.
However, he turned things around in spectacular fashion, shooting 8-13 from deep across Round 4 while averaging 23.5 points.
With the rest of the roster also providing solid contributions, the Taipans are finally finding some consistency after entering the season with high expectations following several disappointing campaigns.
NBL Next Star Luke Paul now has two games under his belt, and although his impact has been limited so far, his availability gives Forde another option within his rotation, which can only benefit the team moving forward.
Despite their winning streak, Cairns still rank ninth in offensive rating (112.6) and sixth in defensive rating (116.8), suggesting there’s still plenty of room for improvement.
Nevertheless, wins are beginning to pile up, and they’ll look to carry that momentum into their only game of Round 5 against the South East Melbourne Phoenix.
If the Taipans want to prove they’re genuine contenders, the next step is taking down some of the league’s bigger names.
7th | Adelaide 36ers (3-4) | +1
The Adelaide 36ers’ loss to Melbourne United might have been their lowest point of the season.
Sitting at 2-4 and seemingly without answers to their growing list of problems, pressure was beginning to mount on Trevor Gleeson and his roster.
However, Sunday’s victory over the reigning champion Sydney Kings, handing them their first defeat of the season, might just be the result that gets Adelaide back on track.
The question now is whether they can sustain that momentum without making further roster changes.
Import John Jenkins entered the Kings clash with serious question marks surrounding his fit within the team, but responded with arguably his best performance of the season, scoring 20 points off the bench and knocking down six threes.
Gleeson also tightened his rotation, relying heavily on his core players, with the likes of Isaac White not seeing the court during the victory.
With the club reportedly looking to bring in reinforcements following Isaac Humphries’ injury, this could be the beginning of a 36ers resurgence that sees them push towards the top four.
Adelaide currently rank sixth in offensive rating (117.0) and eighth in defensive rating (121.2), highlighting the work still required on both ends of the floor.
And if Bryce Cotton is going to lead this team back into winning form, regardless of the outside noise surrounding his rivalry with Kendric Davis, the 36ers need to back up Sunday’s statement victory.
Their next challenge comes against the Tasmania JackJumpers, where securing a win in hostile territory would provide another massive confidence boost for a club desperately searching for consistency.
8th | South East Melbourne Phoenix (2-4) | -3
The South East Melbourne Phoenix are struggling to find consistency, winning just one of their past five games, although there are still some positives for Josh King’s side to take away.
Despite suffering another defeat to Melbourne United, the Phoenix remained competitive throughout the contest and looked capable of securing an upset early on.
There are positives to take from a loss like that, but with roughly one-sixth of their season already completed, the Phoenix need to start turning competitive performances into wins before they fall too far behind.
On the surface, their biggest problem is obvious.
South East Melbourne lead the league in three-point attempts, averaging 38.5 per game, but are connecting on a league-worst 28.6%.
King has made it clear that his side won’t be changing its offensive philosophy. The system worked last season, and he believes that, eventually, those shots will begin to fall.
Thankfully, their upcoming schedule might work in their favour.
The Phoenix face the Brisbane Bullets, who are allowing opponents to make 11.4 threes per game, the fourth-worst mark in the competition.
As for their imports, all three have shown flashes of what they’re capable of, but the consistency simply hasn’t been there.
King has repeatedly backed his players in post-match press conferences, maintaining his belief that they’re the right pieces for his system.
Time will tell whether that faith pays off, but a favourable upcoming schedule could provide some much-needed life for a team still licking its wounds.
The Phoenix currently rank eighth in offensive rating (113.5) and a respectable fourth in defensive rating (113.7).
They desperately need wins in Round 5, otherwise we could be discussing this team in a completely different light next week.
9th | Brisbane Bullets (2-3) | -2
Things have gone from bad to worse for the Brisbane Bullets.
After opening the season with two consecutive victories, Will Weaver’s side have now suffered three straight defeats, and their injury concerns are only growing.
The biggest blow came with the news that star point guard and league assists leader Arnas Velička is expected to miss six to eight weeks with a quad injury.
It’s a devastating setback for a team already struggling to find consistency, with Weaver now tasked with reshuffling his rotation while the club searches for a temporary replacement for the Lithuanian star.
Their 97-91 defeat to Cairns was a hard-fought contest, and for much of the game, the Bullets looked capable of walking away with the win.
Import Nate Hinton produced a career-best performance, finishing with 30 points, while big man Tyrell Harrison delivered another monster double-double with 23 points and 18 rebounds.
However, the biggest concern for Brisbane right now is the lack of depth coming off their bench.
The club is already without Sam McDaniel for an extended period, although the arrival of defensive specialist Mawot Mag as an injury replacement should provide some much-needed help.
Offensively, the Bullets currently rank last in the league with a rating of 111.3, although their defence has been more respectable, sitting fifth at 116.2.
For now, Brisbane must turn their attention to Round 5, where they’ll host a South East Melbourne Phoenix side equally desperate to return to the winners’ list.
Given their mounting injury concerns, securing a victory will be a massive challenge.
But if there’s anyone capable of finding a way to keep this team competitive through adversity, it’s Weaver.
10th | Illawarra Hawks (1-6) | –
Things are not looking good in the Illawarra Hawks camp.
The former champions have now lost three consecutive games, falling to 1-6 on the season, and there appear to be more questions than answers surrounding Justin Tatum’s roster.
Perhaps the most concerning part of their recent form is the manner of those defeats.
Illawarra have conceded more than 100 points in each of their past three games, with opposing teams seemingly finding ways to score at will.
Losing Mason Peatling for the season was a significant blow, while Todd Blanchfield remains sidelined for several more weeks, but the problems run much deeper than injuries.
One of the biggest concerns surrounds the team’s three star guards.
Milton Doyle is coming off a scoreless performance against Cairns, Tyler Harvey is struggling for consistent minutes, while Will Hickey continues to do everything he can to keep the Hawks competitive.
The rotations simply don’t appear to be working, and while Tatum remains adamant that the club doesn’t need to bring in another import until the current roster figures things out, how much longer can they afford to wait?
The season is slipping away from them quickly.
Interestingly, scoring hasn’t been the biggest problem for Illawarra. It’s their defence.
The Hawks are allowing opponents to shoot a league-worst 51.5% from the field and 38.8% from beyond the arc, making them far too easy to score against.
Whether that comes down to effort, a lack of cohesion or poor communication, something needs to change, and quickly.
Ironically, Illawarra still boast the league’s fourth-best offensive rating (122.0), but their defensive rating of 132.1 is comfortably the worst in the competition.
That tells you everything you need to know about where their problems lie.
Things could get worse before they get better, but for now, the Hawks need to take things one game at a time and find a way to stop the bleeding.
With seven games already played and just one win to show for it, the pressure is only going to continue building.
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