The Run Home with three rounds left, AFL Women’s predicted ladder and fixture analysis, latest news

With three rounds left in the AFLW season, the top four race has become chaotic thanks to an upstart’s major upset.

And while five teams are tied just one win outside the eight, the finalists may already be locked in.

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We run through every contender’s remaining draw and their likely finals scenario below in The Run Home!

AFLW LADDER AFTER ROUND 9

1. North Melbourne (8-1, 251.1%)

2. Geelong (8-1, 156.6%)

3. Melbourne (7-2, 165.7%)

4. Gold Coast Suns (7-2, 150.7%)

5. Carlton (7-2, 149%)

6. Western Bulldogs (7-2, 134.3%)

7. Sydney Swans (6-3, 101.2%)

8. Hawthorn (5-4, 102%)

9. Fremantle (4-5, 102.3%)

10. Adelaide Crows (4-5, 100.2%)

11. West Coast Eagles (4-5, 84%)

12. Port Adelaide (4-5, 81.1%)

13. Richmond (4-5, 75.9%)

14. Brisbane Lions (2-7, 85.5%)

15. GWS Giants (1-8, 64.8%)

16. Collingwood (1-8, 60.1%)

17. Essendon (1-8, 58.4%)

18. St Kilda (1-8, 41.9%)

TEAM-BY-TEAM ANALYSIS

All times AEDT

1. NORTH MELBOURNE (8-1, 251.1%)

Last game: def Fremantle by 30 points

Games to come

Round 10: Essendon at Windy Hill, Sunday 3:05pm

Round 11: Adelaide at North Hobart Oval, Sunday 1:05pm

Round 12: Richmond at Windy Hill, Saturday 3:05pm

Analysis

One more win will effectively clinch a top-two spot for the Kangaroos, given their percentage lead on the rest of the contenders, and combined with a Geelong loss they’d basically be locked into the minor premiership with two games to go. Adelaide is the only potential danger game.

2. GEELONG (8-1, 156.6%)

Last game: def GWS by 63 points

Games to come

Round 10: West Coast at Sullivan Logistics Stadium, Saturday 7:15pm

Round 11: Fremantle at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 3:05pm

Round 12: Western Bulldogs at GMHBA Stadium, Friday 7:15pm

Analysis

The Demons’ upset loss to the Suns leaves Geelong in the box seat to host a qualifying final… just not at their home ground, because a Supercross event is being held there instead. It’d be a horrendous result if they have to instead host the game at Ikon Park or Whitten Oval, especially since they’re a good chance of facing a Victorian rival (and thus giving up their home ground advantage). The Cats still have to earn second spot on the field and none of their last three games are easy – that Bulldogs clash to open Round 12 could be hugely decisive.

3. MELBOURNE (7-2, 165.7%)

Last game: lost to Gold Coast by 22 points

Games to come

Round 10: Richmond at IKON Park, Friday 7:15pm

Round 11: Western Bulldogs at Whitten Oval, Saturday 7:15pm

Round 12: Adelaide at Unley Oval, Sunday 3:05pm

Analysis

An upset loss to the Suns hasn’t cost the Demons a top-two finish by itself, as they’ll be favoured in their three remaining matches and have a bit of a percentage lead on the Suns, Blues and Bulldogs. But their last two weeks are, at a minimum, danger games with the clash at Whitten Oval likely to end the loser’s top-four hopes. We’d still back Melbourne to make it into the 2nd vs 3rd qualifying final – which is so important to win if you want the best chance of making the Grand Final – but they’ve had a vulnerable few weeks.

4. GOLD COAST SUNS (7-2, 150.7%)

Last game: def Melbourne by 22 points

Games to come

Round 10: Adelaide at Unley Oval, Saturday 1:05pm

Round 11: Richmond at People First Stadium, Saturday 5:05pm

Round 12: GWS at Henson Park, Sunday 12:35pm

Analysis

Just when we were expecting the Suns’ fairytale run to come crashing down against a quality opponent, they stunned us and the Demons with a brilliant win in Mackay. They’re still in a real fight to make the top four – even winning out wouldn’t guarantee it because the percentage gap to the Blues is basically nothing – but it’s still so impressive that they’re a chance of getting there. At worst the Suns should host a final though there are some questions over which venue they could actually use, depending on which week of the finals the home game falls in. You’d hate to see them miss out because AFLW isn’t being prioritised.

5. CARLTON (7-2, 149%)

Last game: def Sydney by 27 points

Games to come

Round 10: Western Bulldogs at IKON Park, Saturday 3:05pm

Round 11: GWS at IKON Park, Sunday 5:05pm

Round 12: Brisbane at Brighton Homes Arena, Saturday 5:05pm

Analysis

A vital win on the road against the Swans keeps the Blues right in the top-four race, especially after Gold Coast’s upset of Melbourne – which was a net negative, because the Suns were the team the Blues were most likely to knock out of the four. They could still get there on percentage, but this weekend will have the biggest say on the double chance, with the Blues-Bulldogs mini-final and the Suns having a tricky away trip to Adelaide. In a best-case scenario the Blues can still get into second spot though they’ll need some help.

6. WESTERN BULLDOGS (7-2, 134.3%)

Last game: def Essendon by 43 points

Games to come

Round 10: Carlton at IKON Park, Saturday 3:05pm

Round 11: Melbourne at Whitten Oval, Saturday 7:15pm

Round 12: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, Friday 7:15pm

Analysis

Well, if the Bulldogs win their next three games, they will absolutely deserve the top four spot it earns them. At that stage they’d probably be the favourite to meet North in the Grand Final (depending on how the finals bracket falls). But while they’re just 16% outside of the top four right now, their horrendously hard fixture is likely to send them into an elimination final instead. All they can do is keep winning…

7. SYDNEY SWANS (6-3, 101.2%)

Last game: lost to Carlton by 27 points

Games to come

Round 10: Collingwood at Windy Hill, Sunday 12:30pm

Round 11: West Coast at Henson Park, Sunday 12:35pm

Round 12: Fremantle at Cockburn ARC Oval, Sunday 5:05pm

Analysis

After falling to the Blues, the Swans need at least one more win to play finals and possibly two, depending on how hard the likes of Port Adelaide or West Coast can charge over the next three weeks. You’d assume Sydney gets the job done against Collingwood but dropping one at home to the Eagles would make things a little scary heading into that final-round trip west. A home final is still possible but pretty unlikely; they’re effectively two wins behind the Bulldogs and Blues due to percentage.

8. HAWTHORN (5-4, 102%)

Last game: def Brisbane by 25 points

Games to come

Round 10: GWS at Henson Park, Sunday 2:35pm

Round 11: Essendon at Kennedy Community Centre, Sunday 3:05pm

Round 12: West Coast at Sullivan Logistics Stadium, Saturday 7:15pm

Analysis

They’re back in the eight and they look very likely to stay there. If the Hawks win well against the lowly Giants and Bombers, they should be safe with seven wins and a solid percentage. They’re almost more likely to make the top six than miss the finals from here, by passing both Sydney and the Bulldogs. Both are definite chances but won’t be easy; the Swans would need to lose to one of the Eagles or Dockers, while the Dogs may need to lose all three games (unless the Hawks build lots of percentage over the next fortnight).

9. FREMANTLE (4-5, 102.3%)

Last game: lost to North Melbourne by 28 points

Games to come

Round 10: St Kilda at Cockburn ARC Oval, Sunday 5:05pm

Round 11: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 3:05pm

Round 12: Sydney at Cockburn ARC Oval, Sunday 5:05pm

Analysis

They kept their percentage in tact despite losing to the Kangaroos, which was always going to be the main goal, but they’ve still got a battle on their hands to get back into the top eight. If they win out they’re a solid chance of catching either Sydney or Hawthorn – that game against the Swans may yet decide the last spot in the eight – so while they should beat the Saints at home, Geelong away is now the most important game of their season.

10. ADELAIDE CROWS (4-5, 100.2%)

Last game: def Richmond by 32 points

Games to come

Round 10: Gold Coast at Unley Oval, Saturday 1:05pm

Round 11: North Melbourne at North Hobart Oval, Sunday 1:05pm

Round 12: Melbourne at Unley Oval, Sunday 3:05pm

Analysis

If the Crows play finals from here, they’ll have absolutely earned it, given their last three games are all against top-four sides. If they even lose once more, they’re probably done, because Sydney (vs Collingwood) and Hawthorn (vs GWS and Essendon) have easy games remaining that should make them impossible to catch.

11. WEST COAST EAGLES (4-5, 84%)

Last game: lost to Port Adelaide by 4 points

Games to come

Round 10: Geelong at Sullivan Logistics Stadium, Saturday 7:15pm

Round 11: Sydney at Henson Park, Sunday 12:35pm

Round 12: Hawthorn at Sullivan Logistics Stadium, Saturday 7:15pm

Analysis

With their four-game winning streak snapped the Eagles may struggle to play finals from here, but the one thing in their favour is they play the two teams they’re trying to catch. Losing to Geelong probably knocks them out of the race because of their percentage but if they can just get to six wins, they’ve got a chance. They would still need plenty of results to go their way. Realistically they need to win all three games remaining.

12. PORT ADELAIDE (4-5, 81.1%)

Last game: def West Coast by 4 points

Games to come

Round 10: Brisbane at Brighton Homes Arena, Saturday 5:05pm

Round 11: Collingwood at Alberton Oval, Friday 7:15pm

Round 12: St Kilda at RSEA Park, Saturday 1:05pm

Analysis

We said last week despite sitting 13th, the Power were one of the more likely teams to jump into the top eight, and after an Abbey Dowrick-propelled win over West Coast they remain right in the hunt. Like the other four-win teams, the problem will be catching either the Hawks or Swans; the latter is probably more likely at this point. But while the other teams trying to sneak into the eight have a tough game or two (or three) remaining, the Power only play teams below them on the ladder. Their realistic finals scenario involves winning out while Sydney loses to both West Coast and Fremantle.

13. RICHMOND (4-5, 75.9%)

Last game: lost to Adelaide by 32 points

Games to come

Round 10: Melbourne at IKON Park, Friday 7:15pm

Round 11: Gold Coast at People First Stadium, Saturday 5:05pm

Round 12: North Melbourne at Windy Hill, Saturday 3:05pm

Analysis

A disappointing loss to the Crows pretty much rules out the Tigers from here; they would need to beat at least two top-four teams while hoping other results go their way, and that just doesn’t seem likely. Unless North Melbourne rests everybody in the final round? But even then…

14. BRISBANE LIONS (2-7, 85.5%)

Last game: lost to Hawthorn by 25 points

Games to come

Round 10: Port Adelaide at Brighton Homes Arena, Saturday 5:05pm

Round 11: St Kilda at RSEA Park, Saturday 1:05pm

Round 12: Carlton at Brighton Homes Arena, Saturday 5:05pm

Analysis

The Lions are effectively done, needing to win out while Hawthorn goes 0-3 (which’d mean them losing to GWS and Essendon) along with other favourable results to have any chance of playing finals.

GWS, Essendon, Collingwood and St Kilda have been eliminated.