The Run Home with two rounds left, predicted final ladder and fixture analysis, AFL Women’s finals series, top eight

Two major upsets have left three-team scrambles for both the final spots in the top four and the top eight, with two rounds remaining.

We run through every contender’s remaining draw and their likely finals scenario below in The Run Home!

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AFLW LADDER AFTER ROUND 10

1. North Melbourne (9-1, 251.9%)

2. Geelong (9-1, 167.2%)

3. Melbourne (8-2, 177.2%)

4. Western Bulldogs (8-2, 140.9%)

5. Gold Coast Suns (7-3, 138.9%)

6. Carlton (7-3, 133%)

7. Sydney Swans (7-3, 112.9%)

8. Fremantle (5-5, 104.9%)

9. Adelaide Crows (5-5, 102.4%)

10. Hawthorn (5-5, 101.5%)

11. Port Adelaide (4-6, 78.8%)

12. West Coast Eagles (4-6, 75.2%)

13. Richmond (4-6, 68.9%)

14. Brisbane Lions (3-7, 89.7%)

15. GWS Giants (2-8, 68.2%)

16. Collingwood (1-9, 56.7%)

17. Essendon (1-9, 55.6%)

18. St Kilda (1-9, 45.1%)

TEAM-BY-TEAM ANALYSIS

All times AEDT

1. NORTH MELBOURNE (9-1, 251.9%)

Last game: def Essendon by 52 pts

Games to come

Round 11: Adelaide at North Hobart Oval, Sunday 1:05pm

Round 12: Richmond at Windy Hill, Saturday 3:05pm

Analysis

The Kangaroos are virtually guaranteed a top-two spot after one of the more wobbly 52-point wins you’ll ever see. They’re just waiting to see who they face in their qualifying final – the Bulldogs’ form suggests they’re the scariest option though the 47-point margin back in Round 3 says otherwise.

Prediction: Finish 1st, host Gold Coast in qualifying final

2. GEELONG (9-1, 167.2%)

Last game: def West Coast by 53 pts

Games to come

Round 11: Fremantle at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 3:05pm

Round 12: Western Bulldogs at GMHBA Stadium, Friday 7:15pm

Analysis

The Cats are almost locked into the top four, with two wins and a huge percentage lead over fifth-placed Gold Coast – though you can never say anything’s guaranteed when it comes to AFLW percentages. They’re not locked into the 2nd vs 3rd qualifying final because of that final-round clash with the Bulldogs, who now sit fourth, just one game back. If the Cats finish 1-1 while losing that game they can still slide down into fourth and cop the Kangaroos in a qualifying final, which you do not want. We’re backing them to finish 2-0 and earn qualifying final hosting rights – though, as we all know at this point, that’s a bit of a misnomer…

Prediction: Finish 2nd, ‘host’ Melbourne in qualifying final

3. MELBOURNE (8-2, 177.2%)

Last game: def Richmond by 62 pts

Games to come

Round 11: Western Bulldogs at Whitten Oval, Saturday 7:15pm

Round 12: Adelaide at Unley Oval, Sunday 3:05pm

Analysis

The Demons still can’t afford a slip-up if they want to make it into the all-important 2nd vs 3rd qualifying final, and this week’s opponents the Bulldogs are looking particularly scary, but the Suns’ loss to the Crows over the weekend gives them a bit more breathing room. In fact with their huge percentage edge there’s every chance Melbourne can drop one of their final two games and still finish third. Remember, if the ladder stays as-is, they won’t be playing Geelong in Geelong for that qualifying final – it’ll be much closer to home because GMHBA Stadium isn’t available. The Dees remain on the ideal path of a qualifying final win into a home prelim, which allows them to avoid North Melbourne until the flag decider.

Prediction: Finish 3rd, ‘away’ to Geelong in qualifying final

4. WESTERN BULLDOGS (8-2, 140.9%)

Last game: def Carlton by 30 pts

Games to come

Round 11: Melbourne at Whitten Oval, Saturday 7:15pm

Round 12: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, Friday 7:15pm

Analysis

An absolutely massive win over Carlton may not put the Bulldogs in pole position for the final top-four spot – their very difficult draw means they’re still likely to be caught by one or both of the Suns or Blues – but it gives them a real chance of holding on. One win could be enough for fourth as long as their percentage doesn’t take much of a hit in the loss; we would expect Gold Coast and Carlton to both finish 2-0, likely winning both games well. Hey, maybe the Dogs will just keep winning! We think their streak will come to an end, but the Dogs should at least host a final from here, as long as the Swans don’t win their last two.

Prediction: Finish 6th, host Sydney in elimination final

5. GOLD COAST SUNS (7-3, 138.9%)

Last game: lost to Adelaide by 10 pts

Games to come

Round 11: Richmond at People First Stadium, Saturday 5:05pm

Round 12: GWS at Henson Park, Sunday 12:35pm

Analysis

The trip to face Adelaide was always going to be their toughest remaining game, and it caught out the Suns, but they’ve still got an excellent chance of making the top four thanks to their draw. They just need to beat the Tigers and Giants by as much as possible, building percentage to stay ahead of Carlton (who also have a pretty easy final fortnight), and they should get back into fourth assuming the Bulldogs stumble against either Melbourne or Geelong. (And if the Bulldogs DON’T stumble, then theoretically the Suns could catch Melbourne or Geelong instead.) We think they’ll do just enough.

Prediction: Finish 4th, away to North Melbourne in qualifying final

6. CARLTON (7-3, 133%)

Last game: lost to Western Bulldogs by 30 pts

Games to come

Round 11: GWS at IKON Park, Sunday 5:05pm

Round 12: Brisbane at Brighton Homes Arena, Saturday 5:05pm

Analysis

They barely showed up against the Bulldogs, which was made even more painful by the Suns’ upset loss (which opened the door to fourth); but Carlton can still recover and earn the double chance. The Dogs’ brutal final fortnight means whichever of the Suns or Blues can record the biggest two wins should get earn the final spot in the top four. The Blues have a tougher draw, finishing with Brisbane away, and as long as they get the job done they’ll have a home final. But you still want to finish fourth if you can. We’re mindful whoever does will probably get belted in a qualifying final anyway… you’d still rather get the shot at the Kangaroos, and at worst, host a semi-final with the chance to play a prelim on the other side of the bracket.

Prediction: Finish 5th, host Hawthorn in elimination final

7. SYDNEY SWANS (7-3, 112.9%)

Last game: def Collingwood by 51 pts

Games to come

Round 11: West Coast at Henson Park, Sunday 12:35pm

Round 12: Fremantle at Cockburn ARC Oval, Sunday 5:05pm

Analysis

After taking care of business against Collingwood, and watching Hawthorn cop an upset loss at Henson Park, on Sunday the Swans are almost locked into the finals. They still need one more win to absolutely guarantee it, otherwise they’ll need to hope their percentage holds up. Hawthorn can still catch them (games left vs GWS and West Coast) while if the Swans lose in Round 11, combined with the Dockers upsetting the Cats, then Round 12’s clash in Cockburn could be for the last spot in the eight. We suspect Sydney will hold on even if they go 0-2, though, because we don’t trust Freo to beat Geelong in Geelong (and Adelaide’s draw is too hard).

Prediction: Finish 7th, away to Western Bulldogs in elimination final

8. FREMANTLE (5-5, 104.9%)

Last game: def St Kilda by 11 pts

Games to come

Round 11: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 3:05pm

Round 12: Sydney at Cockburn ARC Oval, Sunday 5:05pm

Analysis

One of the big winners of the weekend, the Dockers would’ve loved seeing Hawthorn’s upset loss to GWS, as it re-opens the door for a top eight berth. While the percentage gap between Freo and the Hawks is minimal they effectively control their fate – if the Dockers upset Geelong in Geelong, at worst they’ll go into the final game of the home and away season knowing how much they need to beat Sydney by to play finals. And even if the Dockers can’t beat the Cats next week that may still be true; they’ll be playing for a spot in the finals if their old friends the Eagles can upset Hawthorn in Round 12. Sadly we’re predicting the Hawks will get the two wins they need and the Dockers won’t.

Prediction: Miss finals

9. ADELAIDE CROWS (5-5, 102.4%)

Last game: def Gold Coast by 10 pts

Games to come

Round 11: North Melbourne at North Hobart Oval, Sunday 1:05pm

Round 12: Melbourne at Unley Oval, Sunday 3:05pm

Analysis

One top-four upset down, two to go? Though the Crows may actually only need to win one more game to play finals from here, as long as Fremantle and Hawthorn also drop one over the next fortnight. That’s entirely plausible with the Dockers facing Geelong away this week, and the flaky Hawks copping West Coast away next week. If both sides lose, Adelaide can simply pull one upset and try and build a bit of percentage and voila, they’re in the eight. Of course given their final two opponents are the likely grand finalists, it’s going to be a hell of a lot tougher than that… probably too tough.

Prediction: Miss finals

10. HAWTHORN (5-5, 101.5%)

Last game: lost to GWS by 1 pt

Games to come

Round 11: Essendon at Kennedy Community Centre, Sunday 3:05pm

Round 12: West Coast at Sullivan Logistics Stadium, Saturday 7:15pm

Analysis

In one of the most disappointing performances of the season by any team, the Hawks couldn’t get past the lowly Giants, and now they risk coughing up a finals spot that looked virtually secure. They are still the favourites to finish 8th because they have an easier remaining run than either Fremantle or Adelaide does, but should the Hawks drop one more game (more likely away to West Coast in Round 12) they can absolutely miss out.

Prediction: Finish 8th, away to Carlton in elimination final

11. PORT ADELAIDE (4-6, 78.8%)

Last game: lost to Brisbane by 16 pts

Games to come

Round 11: Collingwood at Alberton Oval, Friday 7:15pm

Round 12: St Kilda at RSEA Park, Saturday 1:05pm

Analysis

Funnily enough the Power moved up a spot on the ladder despite their disappointing loss to the Lions. They would’ve had a huge chance of playing finals had they beaten Brisbane, with the easiest remaining draw of any of the five-win teams – instead with a big percentage deficit they realistically need to win both games while Fremantle, Adelaide and Hawthorn all go 0-2. Seems implausible.

Prediction: Miss finals

12. WEST COAST EAGLES (4-6, 75.2%)

Last game: lost to Geelong by 53 pts

Games to come

Round 11: Sydney at Henson Park, Sunday 12:35pm

Round 12: Hawthorn at Sullivan Logistics Stadium, Saturday 7:15pm

Analysis

A huge loss to the Cats probably extinguishes the small flame that was West Coast’s finals hopes, though if they win out, they’re still some small chance of sneaking into the eight. They’d need a hell of a lot to go their way; they can certainly cause some chaos for the teams above them over the next two weeks though. If they beat Hawthorn in Round 12 that may send Fremantle into the finals… so maybe that’s best avoided.

Prediction: Miss finals

13. RICHMOND (4-6, 68.9%)

Last game: lost to Melbourne by 62 pts

Games to come

Round 11: Gold Coast at People First Stadium, Saturday 5:05pm

Round 12: North Melbourne at Windy Hill, Saturday 3:05pm

Analysis

To play finals, the Tigers would need to win both games while Fremantle, Adelaide and Hawthorn all go 0-2. There’s a good chance none of those things happen.

Prediction: Miss finals

14. BRISBANE LIONS (3-7, 89.7%)

Last game: def Port Adelaide by 16 pts

Games to come

Round 11: St Kilda at RSEA Park, Saturday 1:05pm

Round 12: Carlton at Brighton Homes Arena, Saturday 5:05pm

Analysis

Well, step one of the most miraculous finals recovery in footy history is complete, with the Hawks losing to the Giants and the Lions beating the Power… surely the Hawks won’t lose to ANOTHER bottom four team though?

Prediction: Miss finals

GWS, Essendon, Collingwood and St Kilda have been eliminated.