Welcome to the Hotline’s weekly picks against the point spread, published Thursdays throughout the regular season with a focus on the most intriguing matchups across the West and the top games nationally. Betting lines are courtesy of VegasInsider.com unless noted otherwise. (Games involving FCS teams not included.) I went 8-3 last week and am 65-55-3 for the season (54.2 percent). Picks are for entertainment purposes only … unless they aren’t.
We can only guess where an on-campus appearance by ESPN’s iconic ‘College GameDay’ ranked on the Pac-12’s wish list for 2026.
Placing its champion in the College Football Playoff was the clear priority. Producing enough bowl-eligible teams to meet its obligations likely ranked high, as well. Same with a winning record in head-to-head matchups against the Mountain West.
A visit by ESPN’s traveling pregame show? That had to be a top-five item for commissioner Teresa Gould and school executives.
The conference can check that box Saturday at 6 a.m. (Pacific) when ‘GameDay’ goes live from Boise State ahead of the Broncos’ date with Oregon State.
It marks the show’s first visit to Boise since 2010 and the first broadcast of the season from a school that isn’t part of the Power Four conferences (or Notre Dame).
But for all the hoopla that accompanies ‘GameDay’ throughout the fall, the show offers one service more meaningful than any other: It’s a three-hour infomercial for the participating schools, especially the host, and their conference.
For Broncos, who were No. 24 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, and the rebuilt Pac-12, which is effectively a start-up, the timing could not be better.
“Awesome moment for our community with ‘College GameDay’ coming,” Broncos coach Spencer Danielson said earlier this week. “They only go to 13 places the entire year, and they are coming to Boise.
“I told our players, ‘You come to Boise State to be able to have these types of moments.’ … This is a huge opportunity for our state, our community and our program, now and in the future.”
How many eyeballs will tune in?
That’s the beauty of ‘GameDay’ for the schools. On any given week, it outdraws most of the televised games.
Let’s dig in:
— Through 10 Saturdays, ‘GameDay’ is averaging 2.52 million viewers per broadcast, with the Nov. 7 episode from Notre Dame drawing 3.8 million.
— Naturally, the last hour of the broadcast (from 11 a.m. to 12 p.m. Eastern) attracts the largest audience. Each of the past six weeks, the final hour has drawn more than 3 million viewers, with an average of 3.55 million.
For context, consider that the average ‘GameDay’ broadcast draws four times more viewers than watched Boise State-Texas State or Oregon State-Fresno State a few weeks ago.
It’s approximately the same number that watched Washington-USC, Oregon-Nebraska and Arizona-Texas Tech, based on audience data reported by SportsMediaWatch.com.
And the average viewership in the final hour (3.55 million) is comparable to the audience for Florida State-Miami or LSU-Auburn.
Put another way: It’s a massive amount of free publicity for the Broncos, Beavers and Pac-12.
To generate the equivalent national exposure, they would need to spend tens of millions of dollars on a marketing agency.
“Excited to welcome the crew to Boise!” Boise State athletic director Jeramiah Dickey wrote on the social media platform X. “Appreciate all the questions and suggestions…huge opportunity for us as THE Front Porch of Idaho!”
To the Week 11 picks …
(All times Pacific)
Illinois (+10) at UCLA
Kickoff: Friday at 6 p.m. on Fox
Comment: A long trip for the Illini, for sure. But because they played last Friday, it’s a regular week of preparation. The Bruins have been perfect against the spread this season (9-0), a remarkable streak more likely to end than their winning streak on the scoreboard. Pick: Illinois
Duke (+13) at Miami
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on ABC
Comment: One of the most interesting games of the week considering Miami’s quarterback, Darian Mensah, was a Blue Devil in 2025 and left Durham last winter just before the transfer portal closed. Also, the Hurricanes are in letdown mode after the loss to Notre Dame. Pick: Duke
Baylor (+7.5) at BYU
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on Fox
Comment: Hard to believe the Cougars won’t start slowly as they work through the Holy War hangover. But can Baylor, which has an interim coach, execute well enough, long enough to be within striking range of victory in the final minutes? We’re skeptical. Pick: BYU
Michigan (-11) at Oregon
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on FS1
Comment: The Ducks have discovered their mojo in recent weeks — they have a path into the playoff — while the Wolverines are floundering to the finish and just fired offensive coordinator Jason Beck. Their defense is stout, but Oregon quarterback Dylan Raiola played well against Michigan last year with Nebraska. Pick: Oregon
Cal (+10) at Virginia
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on ACC Network
Comment: The Bears have dropped three in a row in blowout fashion. Did the bye week provide a helpful reset or compound their troubles? Tosh Lupoi is coaching for his job in the final three games. He’s fortunate this week: The Cavaliers are struggling with three consecutive losses. Pick: Cal
Arizona State (+3.5) at UCF
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on ESPN2
Comment: The Sun Devils win at least one game they shouldn’t every season. Feels like time for them to check that box in 2026 as freshman quarterback Jake Fette continues to become more comfortable with the playbook. Pick: Arizona State
USC (+7.5) at Indiana
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on CBS
Comment: A massive game for both teams, the Big Ten and the CFP race. The Trojans must win to remain on track for a playoff bid. (Oregon’s hopes for the conference title also hinge on a USC victory.) Meanwhile, the Hoosiers are one loss away from falling into the conference tiebreaker sinkhole. Both teams had two weeks to prepare. Pick: Indiana
Washington (-3.5) at Michigan State
Kickoff: 1:15 p.m. on Big Ten Network
Comment: The Huskies have struggled at home — frankly, it’s stupefying to watch — but won at Purdue and Nebraska last month. They are catching MSU at the perfect time, coming off its biggest win of the season (over Michigan). We expect another road victory for the Huskies. Pick: Washington
(related_articles location=”right” show_article_date=”false” article_type=”automatic-
Oregon State (+13.5) at Boise State
Kickoff: 3 p.m. on USA Network
Comment: Each time the Hotline casts aside the pomp and circumstance and drills down to the essentials of this matchup, we reach the same conclusion: The Beavers aren’t good enough at the lines of scrimmage to contain Boise State’s ground game. Adding to their hurdles: quarterback Braden Atkinson is not expected to play because of a hand injury. Pick: Boise State
Utah (-2.5) at Arizona
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on Fox
Comment: A mega-matchup in the Big 12 hinges on whether the Utes muster the necessary urgency one week after slaying their enemy in the Holy War. Our hunch: They start slowly (and sloppily) but control the fourth quarter and win a one-possession game that knocks Arizona out of the conference race. Pick: Utah
Texas (+4) at LSU
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on ABC
Comment: This matchup of former USC coaches Steve Sarkisian (Texas) and Lane Kiffin (LSU) doubles as a playoff elimination game. The Tigers lost decisively at home last week to Alabama. The Longhorns won at Missouri thanks, in part, to some fortunate calls by the officials. This has game-of-the-day potential. Pick: Texas
Stanford (+15) at Virginia Tech
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on ACC Network
Comment: The Cardinal have lost their three ACC road games by an average of 37 points but showed signs of improvement two weeks ago at Louisville. A victory would put them one win from a bowl bid. Virginia Tech has a 6-3 record, but it’s a soft 6-3. Pick: Stanford
Colorado State (+9.5) at Washington State
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network
Comment: The woeful WSU offense should generate 25 or 30 points against the nation’s worst defense, but we don’t see the Cougars having much success stopping CSU’s attack. Pick: Colorado State
Straight-up winners: UCLA, Miami, BYU, Oregon, Virginia, Arizona State, Indiana, Washington, Boise State, Utah, Texas, Virginia Tech and Colorado State
Five-star special: Washington. The Huskies played well enough at Purdue and Nebraska to win in East Lansing, especially with the Spartans mired in a post-Michigan haze.
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@
*** Follow me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline
The post Wilner Week 11 picks: Indiana, Utah and Oregon cover, Miami struggles and Boise State rolls with ‘College GameDay’ in town first appeared on Sports360AZ.
Leave a Reply